1/3 in Houston $750 effective, all relevant V's cover

Hero: 30's wg
Main V: 40s wg, we saw a show down where he opened 9 10 off in mp an hour ago and bet pot all three streets heads up on a J69 2 10 runout
BB: Tilted whale having a vpip party

OTTH: (Hero walking up to the table after getting up for a phone call)

Main V has opened UTG to $15
+1 called
Hero still standing peeks down at AK and flats
CO calls
BB calls

I really don't like my flat pre, maybe its excusable in CO or BTN to keep the BB in and play a hand in position against him and UTG but I immediately regretted it, even if 3!ing before sitting down looks super strong.

FLOP ($76): A83

V bets $35
Hero calls
folds around

TURN ($146): A837

V bets $125
Hero thinks and decides to just flat vs this sizing

River ($396): A8373

V bets $225
Hero has $575 and a decision to make

If we jam V is getting around 3.5:1 on a call with all his worse aces. We can also assume his opening range UTG is too wide so there's some hands we probably value own ourselves against some of the time as well.

Call or jam?

When you slowplay AK like this preflop, you are free to make up for missed value by raising flop. Call is also fine of course.

Call turn is good.

On river, we lose to 24 combos: 8 combos of AA/88/77/33, 16 combos of A8/A7/A3 (assuming he opens any AX given the T9o showdown, less combos of these hands if he only opens suited, obv).
We beat 24 combos of AQ/AJ/AT. I'm doubtful whether he takes this line and river sizing with A9, even AT is iffy.

When he PSBed turn with 9T on J962, there are multiple straight draw on the flop. Was there also a flush draw on flop? Here there's no flush draw, and flop is bone dry, so I don't think he's taking this turn sizing with weak aces.

It's probably pretty close. I'm somewhat indifferent between call/jam, but lean call.

I'm actually a fan of the preflop flat. At active tables this could get someone to 3bet large to go after the dead money and then we can 4bet with huge dead money in the pot and put on monster pressure. And if it calls around multiway, whatever, our hand plays pretty decent multiway in high SPR pots.

I'm fine with our flop/turn flats.

I probably just call the river. In the history hand, the guy did end up betting the river with two pair, so it's possible he slows down with just one pair. Although it is definitely possible I'm leaving money on the table against an aggrotard who overplays one pair and is unlikely to fold a big (but worse) Ax, so if that's what he is, then more argument for getting it in (but we really have to be sure he's that guy cuz it's an overplay against most others, imo).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I can't say for sure if there was a flush draw on that board

Well, my population read would be that he’s repping AQ+, with AJ possible but less likely given the turn sizing, and this is closer to a call.
In order to raise river I’d want to know with some certainty he’s capable of spewing off on this dry board for PSB on turn with AT. Your T9 HH doesn’t really show that if there were a flush draw on flop because that J96 board is super wet (it wouldn’t be comparable to A82r, where AT doesn’t need protection).

Easy allin for me/of course villain dependent.

We lose to A8 A7 IMO. With the way action went he not betting "only" $225 on river w/FH or trips right?

Noob perspective:

A8/A7/A3 is a little wide for an UTG open, unless suited, though maybe this guy is playing a bit wider.

He might call a river jam with AQ or AJ, but the board is so dry I'm not sure there are enough bluffs for *you* to have from his perspective for him to call you down with AQ/AJ.

I'm leaning call.

We block some AX combos, but there are enough that outweigh my biggest concern, 88.

I'd lean AI, especially with a live read.

Kinda curious as to how this hand played out as I've been rethinking it a little.

On the flop, the preflop raiser cbet into 3 opponents. Not everyone cbets air into this many opponents. We then called next to act with 2 players still to react behind us; on a drawless board, this is pretty damn strong, as we certainly can't be floating air and we shouldn't really be doing this with any mediocre hands either. So at the very least we are probably seen as having an Ace here, and sometimes we're sandbagging a monster. And yet now this guy barrels turn fairly large, and then still bets the river (not a huge bet, but not terribly small either). Is this really how people play AQ?

I've seen enough HHs recently (both here and in YT poker vlogs) where I guess different player pools just play very differently. So I guess the key is to have a really good handle on how your pool plays over all. In mine, against the pool in general I think raising the river is going to be a vast overplay. And against some opponents, I think a hero fold on the river might even have to be considered.

But you know your pool better than me, so it's just a matter of what people end up showing down here. If everyone in your pool proudly and confidently displays AQ like it is the nuts here after betting it for 4 streets, then your pool is different than mine.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is Houston, so it’s surely different than your pool. Judging from your posts, your game sounds pretty nitty. Texas has the loosest action in the country, at 1/2, 1/3, whatever. I would confidently display AQ here in TX after betting 3 streets, that’s for sure.

Edit: I think river is close, I advocated just calling because of the turn sizing. If V had bet 90 on turn and then half pot to two thirds on river, I think it’s an easier raise. AP it’s pretty close IMO. I also don’t go for thin value often enough, so maybe samo etc are right and it’s an easy AI. Dunno.

I can go either way, but I lean toward jam. You are so under-repped, and I doubt he can fold AQ/J/T. If he does, it's no biggie. If he has AA/8/7 or 88, it's a bit of a cooler.

Results:

I pretty quickly shipped and V beat me into the pot with the last combo of A7 suited.

It seems close between a cooler and an overplay, with the fact that I didn't 3! making it harder to decipher.

FWIW, I've seen plenty of players in this room get 300-400 bb in with overpairs or tpgk, they just won't fold.

Thanks for the input everyone.

Personally, I would never consider getting in 250bb stacks in a single raised pot with one pear a cooler (even though SPR is ~10ish due to multiwayness, but still enough leeway for a lotta pot control). In general, I actually think it's pretty horrible.

Also have to consider how those players who don't fold are getting in their huge stacks with one pear. Passively calling them off is one thing; intentionally putting most of it in themselves with initiative over multiple streets is quite another.

GimoG

You're relying on the nature of the board and your underrep as an excuse for ripping what would ordinarily be a winning call for those two reasons. Gross.

After results.

Big hands for big pots and as good as TPTK is, it's still a one-pair hand (and therefore not a big hand).

I think I would have raised the turn to $325 though. Don't know if I call a 3! shove and when called am checking behind on the river.

Why raise? Let the guy blast off. Call down when you happen to have AK bc he has that much less and let him rep it. The rest of the time you’re >AK call flop and turn and rip River. I mean this is beyond basic.

77 doesn't bet the flop, A7s might not either so have to discount those

That's probably why I average 15 bb/h and not more. Still, it works for me.

I'm just calling down here.

What hands are you raising river with? Strictly 3 combos of 88 and one combo of A3 suited? I don't know what else we arrive here with better than AK.

This guy raised utg and bet bet bet on Axxxx and you called pre, so your raises are going to be extremely limited and it’s just going to be a value-contest. Anyone who is able to raise AK here profitably at any point in the hand (save pre, but cal ok also) is playing against the stone worst competition in the universe.

The question you should be asking is what hands worse than AK do you arrive to the river with here and how many of those are river calls facing 225.

I mean the guy practically potted turn on A837r from utg, the whole hand should be about whether you should even call the river or fold.

Yup, after rethinking this hand this is now where I'm at too.

And I'll also admit something: I once played an extremely similar hand (AK in UTG+1 sneaky flatting active-but-completely-aware UTG raise at active table, goes 5ways with 3 flatters behind me, dryish flop like A83r, UTG cbets into 4 opponents, nitty image me flats and others behind fold, he continues for large bet on blank 6r turn which will setup a PSB for stacks on the river) and I... actually nit fold the turn. I have zero problem with anyone arguing that is far too nitty (it very well could be), but the point is that is where our head should be at on the river here against all but the most completely clueless.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Did you see this part?

"Main V: 40s wg, we saw a show down where he opened 9 10 off in mp an hour ago and bet pot all three streets heads up on a J69 2 10 runout"

Yea and? That's a pretty dirty line albeit w a hand that he shouldn't have. He also had 2p.

I mean, he potted the turn on J962 with second pair. Which is sort of strange. Who knows what this guy’s bet sizing represents.

Folding turn or river in this hand is ridiculous unless there are very weird image considerations or specific reads. Maybe GGs fold is reasonable because he’s perceived as a super-nit and he knows that his opponent has that perception, but a typical player should never fold here.

I agree with Amanaplan that the turn PSB on this board is concerning. Really don’t like raising turn given that. We fold out all of Vs bluffs (T9, maybe some air).

I am also concerned about the fact that we aren’t perceived to have any bluffs. If opponent is aware enough to realize this, jam river is kinda spewy. He easily gets away from AJ-. Maybe he gets away from AQ, maybe not. But we’re always snapped off by better.

If OTOH V is a special type of unaware calling station type of player, jamming river with AK is fine.

So it sorta depends on what reads OP has on the player. Does he like to use big sizings on turn often with 1 pair on drawless boards? Does he also have calling station tendencies? Without definitive answers to those questions, I’m just calling down here.