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03-17-2020 , 03:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
Unprecedented global pandemic when you consider information spreading capabilities + overinflated market + multiple indicators already pointing towards a recession

I was thinking djia going to 18,000 might be the bottom on Friday. 15,000 is possible imo now
And on Tuesday night you think _____

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Here's an example:

On Ignition you run up your roll to say $1k and now decide you want to cash out.

At the time of cash out you will be issued BTC equivalent to whatever $1k is.

Just to keep it simple let's say at that time 1 BTC = $1k. Now it takes time for that 1BTC Ignition cashed out to hit your BTC wallet. It also takes time for you to notice when it gets there and then convert it to cash.

Now in that time the price of 1BTC will be doing whatever it does. And it is a possibility that at the time you transfer to cash itonly equals $700 because grandpa sheit his pants that day.
So BTC is a commodity? One where you cannot take delivery.

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
https://www.drodd.com/animal-house-sound/thanks.wav


Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
feelsgoodman. It's because I may have just had my last day of school... ever?! No stress really. Finally amirite

Online graduation coming up?! Please click to walk across the stage.
Someone else here said graduating from college is like busting out of the amusement park.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
no clue honestly. Leaving everyone in the dark. “Fluid situation” has been getting thrown around by university prez a lot.
Get Donatello's phone?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
garick make a coronaids quarantine thread

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...hread-1764691/
Spoiler:
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03-17-2020 , 04:04 AM
So thread is rooting for Natamus and LilWrath. Anyone else?

Down goes Globogym! (my grocery hoarding just got simpler)

CAZ is standing by to be closed.

Schools closed.

College sent about 9 emails saying it was closed until March 20 [lolright]

The line of demarcation should be personal knowledge goes here, your charts and NYT editorials get quarantined.

Happy St Patty's Day
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03-17-2020 , 04:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
If you bought the S&P 500 at the peak in 2000 you would have had a 12.5 year break even stretch (ignoring dividends). With the Nasdaq it would have been more like 16 years.

Hell, from the peak in 1929 to the beginning of 1985 the S&P 500 was breakeven. That's over 55 years. Of course dividends were more important back then so I'm sure the breakeven stretch was actually much less than that but still it shows how important it is to not pay too much for investments. That's why Warren Buffett's company has been sitting on $128 billion in cash. It's also why, despite being the largest investor in Coca Cola (KO) he hasn't bought a share of it in the last 25 years.

BTW, Japan's stock index (Nikkei) hit it's high back in 1989 at 38,916. It is currently at 17,125.



Dollar Cost Averaging is very important especially for passive investing where you don't know the true value of what you are buying. We expect the market will most likely go up over time but there can be a lot of bumps along the way. DCA helps protect you from that variance.



The stock market was due for a 15 to 20% correction even without the pandemic. It had made quite a run in 2019 and to start 2020 and was quite expensive. One could argue that the bull market of the last decade was primarily a result of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates (along with quantitative easing) and can't imagine there will be much more rate cutting now that they've slashed interest rates all the way to zero.
Very informative DC. 55 year B/E stretch?! DCA seems like a great strategy. I like it. It makes sense that the market was due for a correction as stocks seemed to hitting all time highs every week for 5 months last year to early this year.

What influence does the Fed cutting interest rates have? Is that another way of saying they’re making it cheaper to borrow funds- which should boost the economy?

But wouldn’t that inherently signal that the Feds think the economy is in trouble and that market should’ve been going down in 2019 and in prior years?

And doesn’t this have negative effects on the purchasing power of our dollars? As this would result in high inflation?
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03-17-2020 , 04:14 AM
Natamus and FW hope your families stay healthy!
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03-17-2020 , 04:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
yeah. it's hard to know (of course it's hard to know, they won't test her)

she's on day 5 now and has still got a gnarly cough and a temperature but is feeling a little better and I haven't got any worse, other than about a dozen mouth ulcers now and a sore throat.


You both almost 100% have it. Her moderate, you mild. "The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread
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03-17-2020 , 04:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
Natamus and FW hope your families stay healthy!


Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
So thread is rooting for Natamus and LilWrath. Anyone else?

Down goes Globogym! (my grocery hoarding just got simpler)

CAZ is standing by to be closed.

Schools closed.

College sent about 9 emails saying it was closed until March 20 [lolright]

The line of demarcation should be personal knowledge goes here, your charts and NYT editorials get quarantined.

Happy St Patty's Day


Thank you gentlemen! Earlier I was pretty sure I was exposed by staying at Bellagio and Cosmo for my wife’s bday in early Feb and that we may have already had mild symptoms. The disconcerting part is we don’t know if that’s true or not or if we are yet to be exposed to the virus. It’s all so vague and ill-informed for USA#1.

When it comes to BestFriend#1: we’ve talked multiple times Monday. We’ve decided that this is what it is. A pandemic or World War was likely in our lifetime and that the former would prove to be of great risk. We have come to that crossing of the bridge/of the road. I’m prepared to ensure my guy is never forgotten if this goes worst case scenario. If it goes best case we are ready to turn EDC upside down with epic Raving after this is all calmed down. Either way we are at peace with and reedy to deal with reality of all ours situation
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03-17-2020 , 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
Very informative DC. 55 year B/E stretch?!
That is misleading since the dividends received would have been significant plus that was the most severe economic event in US history, and it was also the most overpriced the stock market had ever been until the Dot.com crash ~2000. However, if you simply look at the S&P 500 in 1929 it reached close to 500, which is where it was in the early 1980s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
DCA seems like a great strategy. I like it. It makes sense that the market was due for a correction as stocks seemed to hitting all time highs every week for 5 months last year to early this year.
The good news is that even if you bought right at every top you'd be up quite a bit (like if you bought in 1987, 2000, 2007). However, you'll get an especially nice and quick return when you invest money at the bottom.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
What influence does the Fed cutting interest rates have? Is that another way of saying they’re making it cheaper to borrow funds- which should boost the economy?
Yes, it allows businesses easier access to capital which allows them to invest more money in their business which helps them make more money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
But wouldn’t that inherently signal that the Feds think the economy is in trouble and that market should’ve been going down in 2019 and in prior years?
You would think (at least to a point). However, in recent years the fed has been taking these measures even when the economy is seemingly fine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
And doesn’t this have negative effects on the purchasing power of our dollars? As this would result in high inflation?
Well it's certainly inflated asset values but in terms of true inflation (as measured by economists) we haven't had much of it in quite some time. If inflation were to increase, then the Fed would raise interest rates to curtail it. If that were to happen, then many companies' values would suffer, particularly tech names who depend on growth and future profits in order for their lofty valuations to make sense.
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03-17-2020 , 05:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
Hmmm... so before I catch the ban hammer...

Garick, how's St. Paddy's day in Ireland?
I'm here. It's going to be dull.

Ireland is pretty well shut down. Some fast-food type places, convenience stores & groceries open. Hotel bars & restaurants for guests, but pubs all are closed.

Walking through Temple Bar yesterday, the only things I found open were just a few restaurants and gift shops. Seems to be that way all over Dublin.
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03-17-2020 , 05:49 AM
This guy is a hardcore bull but he said this a week before the stock market started to crash:

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03-17-2020 , 05:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
Very informative DC. 55 year B/E stretch?! DCA seems like a great strategy. I like it. It makes sense that the market was due for a correction as stocks seemed to hitting all time highs every week for 5 months last year to early this year.

What influence does the Fed cutting interest rates have? Is that another way of saying they’re making it cheaper to borrow funds- which should boost the economy?

But wouldn’t that inherently signal that the Feds think the economy is in trouble and that market should’ve been going down in 2019 and in prior years?

And doesn’t this have negative effects on the purchasing power of our dollars? As this would result in high inflation?
What is your major?
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03-17-2020 , 06:24 AM
DC (or anyone else)

Please try to convince me that the stock market is nothing more than a glorified legal ponzi scheme.

A very smart man once told me you haven't made any money in the stock market until you sell something. Then he told me he would sell his grandmother for a half a point and then dropped a couple hundred bucks on a trifecta box in the next horse race.
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03-17-2020 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CowboyCold
DC (or anyone else)

Please try to convince me that the stock market is nothing more than a glorified legal ponzi scheme.

A very smart man once told me you haven't made any money in the stock market until you sell something. Then he told me he would sell his grandmother for a half a point and then dropped a couple hundred bucks on a trifecta box in the next horse race.
i've always felt unless it gives dividends it's a ponzi scheme, of course i can't say that very often or very loudly because that's a good way to get ostracized and never taken seriously but i'm already the shoot to kill non mask wearers guy itt so may as build upon that rep
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03-17-2020 , 06:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CowboyCold
A very smart man once told me you haven't made any money in the stock market until you sell something.
Used to be that you could just make money off dividends rather than selling your investment. However given the tax code it's more advantageous for companies to just reinvest that money back into the company or buy back shares with it.
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03-17-2020 , 06:59 AM
For transparency, my last foray in the stock market ended with me watching my nest egg falling off the wall like Humpty Dumpty in ENRON. Good times!
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03-17-2020 , 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Used to be that you could just make money off dividends rather than selling your investment. However given the tax code it's more advantageous for companies to just reinvest that money back into the company or buy back shares with it.
And if they decide to buy back shares with 96% of their positive cash flow instead of reinvesting the money back into the company, then they can count on a bailout when they go nearly bankrupt. Win-win.
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03-17-2020 , 08:37 AM
If you're going to play on Ignition, whatever you do,

Don't even bother playing during the hours of 6 am until about 4 pm Eastern time during the week.

It's seriously not worth it.

You'll find maniacs and mega donators on the anonymous tables, but I've NEVER seen one during those hours.

Saturdays, Sundays, and east coast nights into drunk time is when you'll find them.
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03-17-2020 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
And on Tuesday night you think _____
if it slides 3k points on tuesday i will re-evaluate. i'll stikc with 15k for the time being. i've heard 12k which slides us all the way back to 2011 era, which is kind of scary.

but it will probably trend upwards tuesday.

i haven't looked but in the past 3-4 weeks i'm not sure we've had 2 up days in a row.
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03-17-2020 , 08:55 AM
best of luck feelie and natamus.
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03-17-2020 , 09:01 AM
Tom Brady announced he is leaving the Patriots this morning.
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03-17-2020 , 09:05 AM
time to see how good TB12 is behind a mediocre offensive line and without a genius as a HC
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03-17-2020 , 10:36 AM
Glglgl to you all and your families

Glglgl fw and nat


Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk
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03-17-2020 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo
I'm shocked. I've had multiple MBPs over the years from work and am a total believer. I think their phones are hot garbage but I like their machines.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk
haha. what phone did you have prior to the S20? I'm on the S9+ and it feels like I have another year easy on this thing.

What don't you like about the iPhone? I will say the face id function is an order of magnitude better than the one on Samsung. But I'm so used to the Samsung that I still prefer it. Even with the wack ass Bixby sheit I wish they would just give up on.
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03-17-2020 , 03:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Axel Foley
And if they decide to buy back shares with 96% of their positive cash flow instead of reinvesting the money back into the company, then they can count on a bailout when they go nearly bankrupt. Win-win.
Gotta keep those terrible airlines in business. Crony capitalism at it's finest!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
haha. what phone did you have prior to the S20? I'm on the S9+ and it feels like I have another year easy on this thing.

What don't you like about the iPhone? I will say the face id function is an order of magnitude better than the one on Samsung. But I'm so used to the Samsung that I still prefer it. Even with the wack ass Bixby sheit I wish they would just give up on.
**** Apple! **** Samsung! I'm reppin' Huawei, bitches!
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03-17-2020 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
That is misleading since the dividends received would have been significant plus that was the most severe economic event in US history, and it was also the most overpriced the stock market had ever been until the Dot.com crash ~2000. However, if you simply look at the S&P 500 in 1929 it reached close to 500, which is where it was in the early 1980s.



The good news is that even if you bought right at every top you'd be up quite a bit (like if you bought in 1987, 2000, 2007). However, you'll get an especially nice and quick return when you invest money at the bottom.



Yes, it allows businesses easier access to capital which allows them to invest more money in their business which helps them make more money.



You would think (at least to a point). However, in recent years the fed has been taking these measures even when the economy is seemingly fine.



Well it's certainly inflated asset values but in terms of true inflation (as measured by economists) we haven't had much of it in quite some time. If inflation were to increase, then the Fed would raise interest rates to curtail it. If that were to happen, then many companies' values would suffer, particularly tech names who depend on growth and future profits in order for their lofty valuations to make sense.
All of this makes sense. Very informative. Can the government just print more money for themselves if they wanted to?
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03-17-2020 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
What is your major?
Finance
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