yeah I’m sure it’ll bounce back as early as tomorrow.

ty DC learning a lot!

Read bogleheads, kid.

anytime! definitely a good idea to aim for as long as fits your schedule. That way you can either win a ton of moniez or bounce back if the Texas variance doesn’t go your way in the beginning.

that’s pretty cool! and 25 years is a super long time to be playing poker, good for you man

will do. WSJ no good?

News is garbage. Read good books. Bogleheads is the 2p2 of retirement investing.

"Random walk down wall street" would probably be the most eye opening thing you can read about financial markets.

It's funny that you mention a finance degree taught you nothing about this stuff. I know many PhD economists who are straight up idiots when it comes to handling their money.

At the end of the day save a lot and drop it all in low cost diversified funds with a sane macro asset balance. Once you do that your time is spent on other things unless you think it's fun to research fine tuning your value and cap size factor exposures.

Factory shutdowns that cause supply chain disruptions that translate into adjusted revenue forecasts don't happen in a day.

It still happened relatively quickly though. From a boomers perspective. For a millennial I know a month is like eternity.

got it. for me it's the realization that if I don't invest 10% of $2,000 (discretionary, post emergency fund), I'm not suddenly going to invest 10% of $100,000.

so just want to start early and build good habits. fine with a 6% inflation adjusted return over 4 decades.

also cutting $500 of unnecessary spending a month over 50 years and putting all of it into a roth will equal ~$4,000,000 tax free at 70 (8% interest rate) so might as well acquire the discipline to buy and hold immediately. when everyone else is buying assets that depreciate.

well said

Plus China lies and is still lying and it appeared that people may have started out by believing their lies

They'll come eventually and a lot of your whales will improve or drop out. Get while the getting is good.


USA#1 Education.

AA got some sweet blockers to the nut flush though so it can put plenty of hands in bad spots deep stacked as well. I’m not usually deep enough to turn it into a bluff in NLHE cause of its showdown value is usually pretty high, but I do it quite a bit in PLO and the same theory would apply to deepstack NLHE.

Stock market dip is my fault because I invested most of my 2019 winnings recently. Just invested the rest today so prepare for a full correction.

T98 monotone without the flush draw:
7%

T98tt:
14%

K72 monotone without the draw:
17%

K72 monotone with the draw:
53%

TT9r:
30%

K72r:
37%

JhTh6d:
28%

As you can see AA is a huge favorite on disconnected non-mono flops. Even on mono flops or 3-straights it's a small favorite. Only on extremely rare monotone connected flops is it a sizeable dog. AA is a monster in a bomb pot and I'd be thrilled to swap it from all my normal hands with 66 I get in bomb pots for the rest of my life.

Bomb pots are bigger on average for obvious reasons. I want to play a big pre-flop pot with a hand that is almost always strong on the flop.

As for EV of dark shoving, I'm not gonna do an exact calculation but I'll do some ugly back of the envelope math for some general flop categories. I sacrificed accuracy for speed in several ways so if you think I overlooked something I was likely actually ignoring it, or I just made a mistake rushing. This didn't take me long and I don't want to spend any more time on it because it's not very useful.

Paired (TT9r)
.162 frequency, Lose to 98/1081, 8.6% equity when called, -.809 EV SPR 3 (in fractions of initial pot size)

Mono (K72):
.045 frequency, Lose to 81, 24.6% equity, -.056 EV

Connected (T98r):
.026 frequency, Lose to 84, 12.4% equity, -.492 EV

1-gap (T97r):
.064 frequency, Lose to 68, 13.8% equity, -.230 EV

2-gap (T96r):
.077 frequency, Lose to 52, 16.3% equity, .068 EV

Disconnected (K72r):
.54 frequency, Lose to 36, 21.3% equity, .404 EV

A-high (A72r):
.118 frequency, Lose to 0, 1 EV

Frequencies add to 1.032 so I probably double counted some flops, although I tried not to.

EV estimate of dark shoving SPR 3: .069 antes
EV estimate of dark shoving SPR 5: -.332 antes

Face up dark shoving SPR 5 gets destroyed. Face up dark shoving SPR 3 is idiotic but wins money.

Irresponsible to make such a bold statement without citing a reputable source...

DC is a really good guy. Kinda amazing at his age that he's retained as much wisdom as he has from his youth. Everyone knows that you lose it as you age.

He spent his formative years teaching underachiever rural kids to play Monopoly. Huge benefit to society.

Played a solid C- today. It’s gonna be a long, brutal trip to Vegas if I do that in a couple days

These aren’t even close to top 50 down days. Not even close

Probably buy as much DIS as I can today.

In my service dress uniform today for the first time since last August. Glad to see that it still fits.

No weight lifting eh?

Is that the accident you sometimes reference squid?

I always thought something with heavy machinery hence the screename.

Just to be clear, what you see on streams and vlogs are not indicative of every table you will find here. Like anywhere else the games can be 13 ossum but still need to be in the right place at the right time. Still better on average than pretty much any game you're likely to find elsewhere.

Poast up when you will be in town. I'd love to donate a few shekels to your cause.


This is why I always wear my cowboy hat and boots when I play. Definitely more money in oil than the ponzi scheme that is the stock market.

I mean who wants a piece of this?

Rick - no heavy machinery, just got really unlucky cuz of some bozo. Almost killed me.
Lost the better part of 3 years of my life. Live with chronic pain to this day. March 1 marks 14 year anniv

Is that what oil farmers look like?