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"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread "The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread

09-16-2023 , 06:59 PM
Hide it good.

I understand that cutting out a section of baseboard behind the living room couch, and making a little squirrel hole back there is a good approach.
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09-16-2023 , 10:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Eckleburg12
Thanks for those detailed thoughts going in depth, ES2

The homelessness, petty crime, and lack of basic public services seem like the biggest drawbacks to living in Vegas. I agree the climate/water situation, and the political climate, is less than ideal.

I wouldn’t be looking to buy, as I probably wouldn’t want to spend anywhere I could afford. I’m curious how much exposure I’d have to petty crime if I stayed in a gated apartment community way off the strip, in say, Summerlin. I’d still have to drive to and park at work.

I’ve done two week Airbnb stays in the Arts district in 2019, 2021, and this summer. I like getting a feel for what it’d be like to live there. I learned just don’t make eye contact and keep walking with any of the sketchy people hanging around gas stations. “I don’t have any cash on me.” “You have Venmo?” lol just no, bro.

I see a Vegas move as a way to be flexible with my living situation, and spend less than I would if I bought somewhere. I’d be a nurse full time first, and supplement with low stakes live poker, hopefully with the occasional donkament score. I’d stay for probably more than 1 year, and probably less than 5 years, and I’d try to be in a better place to buy something than I would be by the end of next year.
For what its worth, I've lived here for 11 years and experienced none of this. I spent plenty of time partying and being about as well.

Vegas roads in my opinion are quite literally the best of any city in the USA I've ever been to, both in terms of being remarkably easy to navigate (its a giant grid) and not having potholes etc.

As far as homelessness and petty crime, I would recommend living in an area that completely eliminates all of that. There are plenty and it's not absurdly expensive. Vegas CoL has definitely skyrocketed though, it is not dirt cheap like it once was, secret is kinda out as well as the rise of remote work/ California exodus etc. I wouldn't consider Vegas expensive as far as "major" cities go though.

I would not recommend living in the Arts district or walking to gas stations. This is common advice everywhere. Go live in Summerlin, parts of Henderson, Southwest/spring valley, and have nothing to with the strip that's not work related.

Hustle culture is definitely quite real though. It can be difficult to make genuine friends as there is a higher ratio of people who want something from you than other places. I basically felt most if not all of that dissipate when I stopped playing poker and hanging out with poker or poker adjacent people.

Vegas is quite normal and relaxing if you dont gamble/party or hangout near the strip in my opinion.
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09-16-2023 , 10:47 PM
^

This guy lives in a custom house. Has a fancy sports car. Independently wealthy. Retired prior to 30. His vegas is quite different than the working man that is in the trenches.

jus sayin


also @farha spc and I will be making a guest appearance in lv. in the beginning of Nov if u r around
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09-16-2023 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
^

This guy lives in a custom house. Has a fancy sports car. Independently wealthy. Retired prior to 30. His vegas is quite different than the working man that is in the trenches.

jus sayin


also @farha spc and I will be making a guest appearance in lv. in the beginning of Nov if u r around

Youll be lucky to get him. He already left the house in June, so he might not be ready for another social occasion
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09-17-2023 , 09:02 AM
Let's put things in perspective. Metro Las Vegas has about 30% lower property and violence rates than metro Atlanta. It ranks between Austin TX and Denver CO.

Last edited by venice10; 09-17-2023 at 09:09 AM.
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09-17-2023 , 11:22 AM
Denver proper is a low bar, imo. I "The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread felt safer while living in NYC, and it's not even particularly close.

Turns out crackheads are less dangerous than methheads. And your average road rager driving on the Jackie Robinson doesn't have a gun.

Maybe that's a hot take.
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09-17-2023 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo
Denver proper is a low bar, imo. I "The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread felt safer while living in NYC, and it's not even particularly close.

Turns out crackheads are less dangerous than methheads. And your average road rager driving on the Jackie Robinson doesn't have a gun.

Maybe that's a hot take.
You're twice as safe in NYC than you are in the US as a whole. Of course you felt safer. Denver, Las Vegas and Austin are above average in safety.
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09-17-2023 , 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
^

This guy lives in a custom house. Has a fancy sports car. Independently wealthy. Retired prior to 30. His vegas is quite different than the working man that is in the trenches.

jus sayin


also @farha spc and I will be making a guest appearance in lv. in the beginning of Nov if u r around
While I cannot deny my immeasurable wealth has removed me from many of the plights of the middle class, there are people in my neighborhood with toyotas and such.

And yes, text me when you guys are here would love a nice sushi dinner.



Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
Youll be lucky to get him. He already left the house in June, so he might not be ready for another social occasion
me and tj just joke about that infront of u so u dont feel bad when we say no
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09-17-2023 , 07:25 PM
SPC is getting geared up for some stuff so we watched the story of the baddest marathoner trying to go sub 2hrs. This is prolly the most inspiring sports doc I have seen.


Kipchoge: The last milestone


@Farha - sounds ossum. Quick question. These people in your "neighborhood" that own toyotas. Do they reside outside of the gate by chance?

also

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09-18-2023 , 12:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Let's put things in perspective. Metro Las Vegas has about 30% lower property and violence rates than metro Atlanta. It ranks between Austin TX and Denver CO.
Atlanta ITT just catching strays.
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09-18-2023 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Eckleburg12
Thanks for those detailed thoughts going in depth, ES2

The homelessness, petty crime, and lack of basic public services seem like the biggest drawbacks to living in Vegas. I agree the climate/water situation, and the political climate, is less than ideal.

I wouldn’t be looking to buy, as I probably wouldn’t want to spend anywhere I could afford. I’m curious how much exposure I’d have to petty crime if I stayed in a gated apartment community way off the strip, in say, Summerlin. I’d still have to drive to and park at work.

I’ve done two week Airbnb stays in the Arts district in 2019, 2021, and this summer. I like getting a feel for what it’d be like to live there. I learned just don’t make eye contact and keep walking with any of the sketchy people hanging around gas stations. “I don’t have any cash on me.” “You have Venmo?” lol just no, bro.

I see a Vegas move as a way to be flexible with my living situation, and spend less than I would if I bought somewhere. I’d be a nurse full time first, and supplement with low stakes live poker, hopefully with the occasional donkament score. I’d stay for probably more than 1 year, and probably less than 5 years, and I’d try to be in a better place to buy something than I would be by the end of next year.
I think this is a good idea.

I probably could have distilled my rant to, I would strongly recommend staying in Vegas for a while, and strongly recommended not putting down roots or (God forbid) starting a family here.

It will be a memorable 1-5 years.

I wouldn't expect many problems in a gated community in Summerlin, especially a manned gate. But IDK.

While poker in Vegas is generally bad, it's well suited to a part time player as you can focus on weekends and special occasions, when games are often good.

There are other gambling opportunities too. If you just get the sportsbetting faq on this site down, you'll find stuff.

Maybe you'll win big in a tournament or find some other opportunity and make a big score to take with you.
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09-18-2023 , 04:37 PM
do not get involved in sports betting
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09-18-2023 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha
do not get involved in sports betting

Facts. 100% facts.
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09-18-2023 , 05:59 PM
I have a bunch o gamboolin palz that do a wide array of stuff

Rocket surgeon pals: Back in my team play days. We had a dude we called the wizard. He designed our sims for various real super duper advanced play stuff. After the team broke up he and several other guys who are also wicked fcukin smaht started a sports betting team. They made piles making all kinds of models/sims, crap i dont even pretend to understand, and just being smarter than everyone else. These guys are elite. After they got rich they started a hedgefund that is super successful and operating to this day.


Street smart: A dear pal o mine who helped me make piles doing some online shenanigans a few years ago is just a boss at exploiting stuff. He knocked back a shitload taking advantage of various promos from an array of places that take sports bets. A good bit of what he did may be questionable from a legal standpoint.

I cant do #1 cuz I aint that smart and neither is 98+% of the population

So it appears to me the only way anyone that wants to win at sports betting is to either do #2, have inside info, or become the house imo
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09-18-2023 , 06:22 PM
I've got a pal who wanted to run a book. He set up as an affiliate of some other book's online portal and made piles winning bets from regular joes he knew in real life. But then he turned around and punted all his profits into the book's online blackjack. Degens gonna degen
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09-18-2023 , 06:48 PM
I’m glad I learned early on that I can’t beat sports.

You see the lines of these apps that are on tv, and it’s like “There’s HOW much juice on both sides?? Do you think your customers can’t do math?!?” (Spoiler: most of them can’t.)
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09-19-2023 , 02:21 AM
It is practically impossible to win by handicapping major sports. E.g. you cannot evaluate NFL teams better than the market.

Or by paying for picks, or tailing some fraud on ESPN.

William Hill used to let you parlay golf match ups. That was very hard to lose. This is more the type of thing I'm talking about

These things are usually not for retire at 30 money, but they are nice for the rest of us.
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09-19-2023 , 03:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackInDaCrak
I've got a pal who wanted to run a book. He set up as an affiliate of some other book's online portal and made piles winning bets from regular joes he knew in real life. But then he turned around and punted all his profits into the book's online blackjack. Degens gonna degen
Fundamental of economics. Just keep moving the money in a circle.
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09-19-2023 , 05:51 AM
Buddy of mine left his merchant banking job in London in the late 90s and has been sports betting ever since. He was an actuary turned derivatives analyst so super smart.

He and his partner have a model theyve evolved and a ton of data etc etc. in the early years they made tons of money from the early days of the internet, dumb markets, arbitrage etc.

They make less each year as the markets get better and the opportunities get fewer. Plus its harder to get volume on because the bookies wont take their business so its Betfair only for them.

They mainly only make money out of horses these days via insider information that the market doesnt have
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09-19-2023 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
Buddy of mine left his merchant banking job in London in the late 90s and has been sports betting ever since. He was an actuary turned derivatives analyst so super smart.

He and his partner have a model theyve evolved and a ton of data etc etc. in the early years they made tons of money from the early days of the internet, dumb markets, arbitrage etc.

They make less each year as the markets get better and the opportunities get fewer. Plus its harder to get volume on because the bookies wont take their business so its Betfair only for them.

They mainly only make money out of horses these days via insider information that the market doesnt have
Honestly this sounds like a miserable grind
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09-19-2023 , 11:58 AM
I backed some guys in the DFS grind in the early days when it was super good. I had zero involvement in their day to day nor do I understand how any of the math works.

I can tell you these guys worked 50+ hours a week staring at spreadsheets running all sorts of simulations to generate lineups and we did reasonably well.

Nowadays the people in sports are significantly sharper.


0% chance I'd want to be doing that myself
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09-19-2023 , 12:02 PM
I've had a long conversation with a family member about the concept of EV and DFS. This was probably 2018. He just couldn't grasp the concept that he's dead money, and kept coming back to "what if I hit one?" Games are good I guess.
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09-19-2023 , 12:31 PM
I herd phil mickelson is pretty good at sports betting
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09-19-2023 , 03:30 PM
I made $490 at poker last night.

On my way in to work at the Doggy Day Care this morning, my wife asked do you want me to just text you what I want for our ten-year anniversary? Oh hell yeah, I hate picking out presents!

So I just got a text, and she wants a $450 pearl bracelet from Tiffanys.

Worm was so right, women ARE the rake!
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09-19-2023 , 04:19 PM
I recommend giving a pearl necklace instead.
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