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12-08-2019 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
Random question... how difficult would it be to make a living on sports betting compared to poker? Much more difficult? Just curious what kind of % of successful sports gamblers there are. I imagine it’d be incredibly easy to go busto when starting out.
How much money do you consider a living? My guess is sports betting is exponentially more difficult than poker. The knowledge needed to beat poker is found on this forum. Beating sports requires knowledge that few to no other people have, including people whose job it is to set lines and have a built in edge with the vig. Just loom around and see how many pro poker players you can find vs pro sports bettors. That should tell you what you need to know about the relative difficulties.
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12-08-2019 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by reaper6788
So... what has the smart money moved on to?
dunno as i aint smart
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12-08-2019 , 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
xtra - I have a gamboolin pal (former partner in 21). His IQ is significantly higher than mine. When we wrapped up the big team around 17 years ago or so he and a few people that were even smarter got into sports betting. They destroyed it and got filthy rich. However, they ended up moving on for a number of reasons. Long story short imo the really smart money has found other projects or is retired. It can still be done but just like poker the game has evolved


Yeah, I have a friend who left his financial markets job 20 years ago and set up with a partner in sports betting. They were ahead of the game in both data and tech and crushed it for quite a while.

He basically said almost all of his edges have gone now, all his arbitrage $$ dried up a decade ago and he’s left basically with horse racing and lower league E European soccer, where ‘contacts’ and inside info still give him an edge
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12-08-2019 , 06:51 PM
FW - exactly...I should have bin more specific as it has evolved like on line poker but more from my understanding
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12-08-2019 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bloobird
I said don't mind me can you even read?

all good anyway, living the married father of two living in suburbia dream

it's not the most exciting dream
Feel like we've played enough ww where you know I can't.

In any case, glad fatherhood is treating you well.
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12-08-2019 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2
Went to Tahoe for a couple days of skiing, having returned to it after a 20-year absence last season. By the end of day 2, I felt pretty close to my former self. I got a black diamond in, and I could blast through the blue squares pretty hard.

Somewhere, I heard the games in Tahoe sucked. Small sample, but the session I played featured more legitimately clueless players than I've seen in a while. A guy called off his $100 stack to an overpot bet OTT with a gutter. 2 hearts on the board, none in his hand. Another called of like 250 with unimproved 22 over 3 streets, saying "I'll play" when making calls.

My favorite pot, I rivered a full house. Bet into. I raised. The board was paired and there were 3 hearts. I got called by a guy with the lowest straight. Except he misread his hand and actually had a pair of 4s. He wasn't even that close to having a straight.

Anyway, free skiing, wohoo.
Woohoo for skiing, glad you're getting back into it. Have never been to Tahoe but it looks like the real deal.
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12-08-2019 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Bold statement, given that I'd argue Black Butte as the quintessential American Porter.
By quintisomething I'd mean it's a base with no distinctive flavor {i.e. quint cake = butter, flour, eggs, sugar} which becomes apparent when you taste them side by side.

Not bold, night capping @4:30am with a 12 oz lost abbey = mistake.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bloobird
oh hey don't mind me just posting so this shows up in my participated threads so I can continue to lurk
Why u no thread tools+down arrow+subscribe to this thread?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackInDaCrak
Black butte porter and mirror pond IPA are both excellent, even archetypal genre executions.

I had the elk stew at deschutes brewery in Portland and have never had worse farts in my whole life.
Didn't make it last trip because Von Ebert's was along the way and looked to have a shorter line. Their hefe was excellent but their "street corn" was a boiled ear with a slab of white lard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2
Went to Tahoe for a couple days of skiing, having returned to it after a 20-year absence last season. By the end of day 2, I felt pretty close to my former self. I got a black diamond in, and I could blast through the blue squares pretty hard.

Somewhere, I heard the games in Tahoe sucked. Small sample, but the session I played featured more legitimately clueless players than I've seen in a while. A guy called off his $100 stack to an overpot bet OTT with a gutter. 2 hearts on the board, none in his hand. Another called of like 250 with unimproved 22 over 3 streets, saying "I'll play" when making calls.

My favorite pot, I rivered a full house. Bet into. I raised. The board was paired and there were 3 hearts. I got called by a guy with the lowest straight. Except he misread his hand and actually had a pair of 4s. He wasn't even that close to having a straight.

Anyway, free skiing, wohoo.
I'd guess the games are a ring of nits waiting on the ski tourists.

Quote:
Originally Posted by reaper6788
So... what has the smart money moved on to?
Baristo at Night Office North has gotten into options trading. I'm listening to try and see that he doesn't drop out of community college.
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12-08-2019 , 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miamicheats
Yep doesn’t even seem close. Instead of playing a bunch of humans- you get to play against a bunch of computers crunching numbers and moving lines quickly while paying insane juice.
That sounds a lot like investing in the financial markets, except for the juice. (Commission-free trading, LOLwut?)

Do they have index funds for sports betting?

(I don't want to talk about the details for reasons that should be obvious, but I have become aware that an investment partnership with a name that I am sure at least some of you would recognize is creating a sportsbetting fund. Don't ask me about the details because I don't know them.)
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12-08-2019 , 09:45 PM
Reminds me of Amphibian Investments
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12-08-2019 , 10:08 PM
Congrats on ‘bout 350k
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12-08-2019 , 11:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
Random question... how difficult would it be to make a living on sports betting compared to poker? Much more difficult? Just curious what kind of % of successful sports gamblers there are. I imagine it’d be incredibly easy to go busto when starting out.
In some ways it's harder. You need a much bigger BR. Nobody is really going to teach you unless you get lucky. Books will just offer the very foundation. Also, for almost everybody, poker will be more engaging and fun.

Mainly, bookies tend to dislike winners. So just because winng bets exist doesn't mean you'll be able to make them.

In some ways it's easier. Much of it is robotic once you find your angles. You don't need to be brilliant at it.

It would be quite hard to get filthy rich at it, I think. Not to hard to make a nice side gig. Moderately hard to make a middle class living.

Edit: obviously the best thing is to make book. Even for like a small group of co-workers.

Last edited by ES2; 12-08-2019 at 11:25 PM.
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12-09-2019 , 02:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
Random question... how difficult would it be to make a living on sports betting compared to poker? Much more difficult? Just curious what kind of % of successful sports gamblers there are. I imagine it’d be incredibly easy to go busto when starting out.
this is something i've actively been exploring. i've been very successful in dfs, which largely starts with vegas odds as a foundation of projections and as DFS gets harder and harder each year, I've been considering following that path in reverse to find where I think the lines should be and then beat the vegas lines

i don't feel qualified to give any advice since I'm still a virgin in this territory but it seems incredibly hard because I'm not competing against some dumbass who wants to light some money on fire

2+2 has a number of sports bettors here, this is a good place to start https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...ockpot-363692/

crockpot= j1mmy h0lzh@uer of jeopardy fame

sorry, i know here it's well known that's him but not sure about for the public so did it that way to defeat search engines

GpossiblyneedlesslyparanoidG
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12-09-2019 , 09:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
By quintisomething I'd mean it's a base with no distinctive flavor {i.e. quint cake = butter, flour, eggs, sugar} which becomes apparent when you taste them side by side.
To me, quintessential doesn't mean no distinctive flavor, it means "exactly the flavor, texture, appearance, etc. you think of" when you think <whatever it's the quintessential example of>. So less "no distinctive flavor" than "no unusual flavor" and the normal elements executed to perfection.

So a quint cake might be a really well done yellow cake. That doesn't mean I won't like it better if it's just as well done but has chocolate chips in it (I won't actually, but just as an example), but that's not because the first one was uninteresting. It's because the second one added something that some people are going to like and others think distracts from the quintessential yellow cake.

I agree that Black Butte doesn't have anything in particular that makes it stand out. I just think it executes the concept of American Porter pretty perfectly. If I'm in the mood for a porter, then it's possible the finest "nothing unusual about it" version of the style out there. If I'm in the mood for an Imperial barrel-aged porter, obv Black Butte would be a disappointment.
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12-09-2019 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo
Waiting for you to unveil your list, please to be posting it up good sir
Up next in the list of 10 best records of the decade. Sure to generate dissension and the wrath of JOTS:

Spoiler:

Moon Shaped Pool by Radiohead



Thought it might be some recency bias when I thought as highly of it as I did on it's release. Went back and listened to it recently and still think it's a remarkable record.

Most accessible song

Spoiler:


Heartbreaking

Spoiler:


My favorite song

Spoiler:


This is a slow and somber record so I don't expect many to like it. In their discography it probably ranks 4th or 5th IMO
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12-09-2019 , 11:27 AM
TheSharpPlays is a good follow on the tweeter inre sports betting

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12-09-2019 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CowboyCold
TheSharpPlays is a good follow on the tweeter inre sports betting

wonder how much he was sweating that 331k bet at halftime with OSU down 21-7
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12-09-2019 , 11:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
wonder how much he was sweating that 331k bet at halftime with OSU down 21-7
Yeah no shirt. Looks like he was hedging his side with the money line. Pucker for sure. And to be clear, that is not the SharpPlays guy. That is just some whale he knows.
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12-09-2019 , 11:46 AM
lol @ the nfc east. division leader would be tied for 2nd in afc west and nfc south and would be, at best, 3rd in every other division.

surprised cowboys are opening as a favorite vs the rams, especially with rams blowing out seahawks last night.
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12-09-2019 , 11:49 AM
That is amazing. So obv the bet is LOL Cowboys.
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12-09-2019 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
Up next in the list of 10 best records of the decade. Sure to generate dissension and the wrath of JOTS:
Was wondering when The Radiohead would appear.

My iPod says I like their earlier stuff. Thom also has one of those types of voices that I think perhaps has a listening lifetime to it (although perhaps all bands / voices do?), and I think it has perhaps expired for me.

Still, saved me from adding you to my Ignore list.

GcluelessTheRadioheadnoobG
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12-09-2019 , 12:43 PM
So I spent some time going over my iPod. I listed (in alphabetical order) the groups that have a 2010+ tune on it, the number of 2010+ songs of that group on my iPod, and what I thought was their best 2010+ tune. Some overlapping solo/band artists, plus a few covers, but whatever.

AC Newman (1) - "I'm Not Talking"
Band Of Horses (1) - "In A Drawer"
Ben Gibbard (1) - "Bigger Than Love"
Better Community Oblivion Center (1) - "Chesapeake"
Billie Joe Armstrong and Norah Jones (1) - "Long Time Gone"
Bon Iver (1) - "Holocene"
Bryan Adams (1) - "You Belong To Me"
Caribou (1) - "Can't Do Without You"
Courtney Barnett (1) - "Depreston"
Dan Mangan (1) - "Cold In The Summer"
Dntel (1) - "Ashby"
Emmylou Harris (1) - "Hard Bargain"
Gord Downie (2) - "The Stranger"
Hayden (24) - "Almost Everything"
Iron & Wine (1) - "Tree By The River"
John Mayer (1) - "New Light"
Jose Gonzalez (1) - "Every Age"
Junip (2) - "Line Of Fire"
Lightships (4) - "Sunlight To The Dawn"
Low (1) - "Just Make It Stop"
Luluc (1) - "Cambridge"
Phosphorescent (1) - "New Birth In New England"
The Prince Brothers (1) - "In Pairs"
Real Estate (1) - "Walking Backwards"
Royal Wood (1) - "I Was Wrong"
Sufjan Stevens (6) - "Blue Bucket Of Gold"
Teddy Thompson (1) - "Tell Me What You Want"
Teenage Fanclub (24) - "Sometimes I Don't Need To Believe In Anything"
TUNS (2) - "When You're Ready"
Whitehorse (1) - "I'm On Fire"
William Fitzsimmons (1) - "Beautiful Girl"
Wintersleep (2) - "New Inheritors"

What I took away from it:

- only 90 2010+ songs, for only 5% of my overall iPod tunes (although not *too* terribly outweighted if you assume each decade from the 50s should allot for 14%)
- before I was so album-centric, especially in the 80s/90s; now I almost never buy albums (4 purchased albums in the 2010s by only 2 artists, lol) and I'm almost completely song-centric
- incredibly male (83%), white (100%?), Canadian (34%) and straight (97%?); posting this list might actually be a ban-able offense?

Biggest takeaway was how quickly last 10 years have passed. Dozens and dozens of songs that I thought would easily appear on here actually ended up being released pre 2010 (some even earlier, lol).

Gtimeain'tslowingdownforusG
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12-09-2019 , 01:33 PM
You're still hip, apparently. I only know who one of those people/groups is/are after the letter B, and I believe I've heard none of the songs.

BTW, if you're not familiar with Lord Huron, for some reason I think it's something you'd like.

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12-09-2019 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
So I spent some time going over my iPod. I listed (in alphabetical order) the groups that have a 2010+ tune on it, the number of 2010+ songs of that group on my iPod, and what I thought was their best 2010+ tune. Some overlapping solo/band artists, plus a few covers, but whatever.
Given this list you may have heard 3+ from the next record on the top 10 of the decade.

Spoiler:



Great album. Probably my favorite by him. If you don't like acoustic stuff this won't work for you most likely:

Might be my favorite Sufjan song

Spoiler:


Maybe the most "famous" from that record

Spoiler:


On your iPod!

Spoiler:
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12-09-2019 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
You're still hip, apparently. I only know who one of those people/groups is/are after the letter B, and I believe I've heard none of the songs.

BTW, if you're not familiar with Lord Huron, for some reason I think it's something you'd like.

I don't listen to them a ton but agree this is a really good song
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12-09-2019 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
Up next in the list of 10 best records of the decade. Sure to generate dissension and the wrath of JOTS:

Spoiler:

Moon Shaped Pool by Radiohead



Thought it might be some recency bias when I thought as highly of it as I did on it's release. Went back and listened to it recently and still think it's a remarkable record.

Most accessible song

Spoiler:


Heartbreaking

Spoiler:


My favorite song

Spoiler:


This is a slow and somber record so I don't expect many to like it. In their discography it probably ranks 4th or 5th IMO
So far so good, imo.

Im waiting for the Adele and taytay entries.
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