1/3 NLHE

V1. Splashy guy. Has been unlucky and rebought and now doubled up. Lost a hand against another V when V1 limp called pre with 5-3dd flop came 2d-4x-6d. V1 check minraised flop and gii on Ax turn, river another A. Other V had AA and made quads. Covers.

V2. Semi-competent reg, hardly ever seen him play but knows odds etc. 500$.

H. Has been slightly up and down but hasnt really been involved much. Should have a tighter image than average. 407$.

Loose goose limps UTG. V1 opens to 15. V2 calls. H calls in CO with Q J. Loose goose calls.

Flop 60 - A T 7

Loose goose checks, V1 bets 35, V2 calls, H raises to 110 leaving 282$ behind. Loose goose folds. V1 rips it. V2 folds. V1 seems really eager like he cant wait, starts counting how much he has then realizes he covers H and starts trying to count H's stack from across the table.

AP an auto-call. You need just over 25% equity to make this call, and you certainly have more than that.

I don't like your flop raise, however. With a bet and call to you, it's nearly certain you're behind (but have sufficient equity to continue). I'd likely just call the flop. However, if you want to raise, I'd shove.

I like 3betting this hand preflop in position a good amount. especially getting to isolate V1 and get the good player to fold.

Seems like just calling flop and keeping in worse draws here would make more sense

~$600 in the pot with $280 to call? More than 2 to 1 pot odds. Even if he has pocket aces, you're only a 2-1 dog.

Not sure why everyone is getting this wrong but here goes:

The exact odds are 522:282. Less than 2:1. ~35% needed. And I'm mostly looking for opinions on the 110.

With a bet an call multi-way, you are definitely going to get action on your raise, so I likely just call the flop and see what happens on the turn.

AP you have no choice but to call.

High variance. Why?

How often does V1 raise vs limp? If he limps a lot of his speculative hands, once he raises and continues into three people on an A-high flop, what does his range look like? You have the Q and J of diamonds so he basically can't have a flush draw. He almost always has a strong Ace or better here I think. Do you think you can get a fish who is stuck to fold a big Ace on one of the wettest boards possible? Your image may be tighter this session. but I'm sure everyone at the table knows that you are capable of semi-bluffing here.

If he doesn't have an Ace or better, he will check turn and you can potentially win there.

I think the nice part about being in position with this hand is you can call flop and call almost any turn bet. You get to realize your considerable equity in position against a loose player with a big hand. That's a good spot. If V2 has QJhh or 65dd, it's an even better one.

Edit: That said, if you are ever going to bluff raise this board, you have a pretty good hand to do it. Obviously can't fold to the jam.

How did you come up with 522?

Ah yea I messed it up sorry.

Thing with this is if loose goose folds and turn is a brick and V1 bombs it what are we doing?

Pot would be 165 so if he bet 100 Im doing what? folding?

Calling without hesitation. In that situation, you're almost getting the correct immediate pot odds, and the implied odds certainly make it worth it.

In this scenario, I think the better question is, how large does his bet have to be to get you to fold on a turn blank. Probably > pot.

Quotes that age gloriously.

Raising anything on AxTy7x against the PFR is dubious. PFR has top set and AK, T7 is unlikely so you are saying you have TT/77/AT ... and there are roughly 666 draws (6 combos of broadway flush draws might all raise and 9x8x, which is already more than the sets you have). As others said, you also get random 98 or Tx to fold, which is bad.


As an exploit raising TT here can be great, for the opposite reason.

I should mention these guys can have almost any AX here and be betting. Guy calling in the middle has tons of TX. Both of which have to fold.

Anyway result is:

Do you think anyone is going to fold Ax to your raise on that board?

The issue I have with raising to $110 is that it looks like we might be close to indifferent if we should call off or not. Whenever our opponent makes us indifferent, that’s usually not a good thing.

Noob perspective:

As played, I think you're fairly priced in and might as well go for it with 13 outs. Even if V1 has a set, you're still winning 1/3 of the time. If he has 2-pair, you're good 2/5 of the time. Hell, he could even have a monster combo draw like 98dd and his flush draw is actually no good.

I don't think it's a slam dunk, but it's probably neutral EV at worst to call.

As for the rest of the hand -- pre-flop is standard. I think a 3-bet squeeze is overplaying it a bit. On the flop I prefer to play this as a call, in position, and see what develops.

Sorry can you elaborate on what you mean by indifferent?

60+35+110+110=315 out there if he calls and 407-15-110=282 back for just under a PSB.

you have a gut shot to the nut straight and 2nd nut flush draw and you raise to chase the loose goose out?

on what planet does this make any sense

Given that we're still multiway with a lot of possible outcomes before action gets back to us after our raise, my statement was oversimplifying it and more of general thought.

When we consider raising and what size we would raise to, we should at least already have a plan for the most likely outcomes. The initial raiser shoving and the third player folding is one of those situations. So once that happens we should already know if we want to call or fold because one of the two seems clearly better. If we get in a situation where it doesn't really matter what we do because the EV of both actions is pretty similar, it's likely that we could have done something differently before with a higher EV.

In the hand here, we know that villain most likely doesn't have a FD unless we think he opens stuff like K5s after a limper. Since he limp/called 53s, I'd think it's more likely he would limp small suited kings though. That leaves KTdd and T9dd/98dd as his most likely draws. He obviously has sets and AT but A7/T7 might be more in the limp camp again. So it basically boils down to us making an assumption of how many Ax hands are in his bet/shove range. If we have made that assumption we can see if a flat call would have been the better play or a different raise size.

ok thanks

What I would want to raise with here for fat value after calling preflop would be ATs and 77.

With the stronger flush/combo draws, it'd be nice to let any weaker draws call and pad the pot

Then you get to things like 98dd that might be worth raising to clean up outs but I don't know if the small boost you get from folding out Q high FDs is worth stacking off heads up.

Ending up all-in vs AKo doesn't seem too bad but comments seem to ask maybe we can do better/go lower variance? If you flat the flop how much does villain bet on a blank turn?