Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017
Does a turn lead really look stronger than a check raise? We could check call and lead some rivers. Anything is going to look strong though.
Right. Like it really doesn't matter -- the point at which we disrupt the flow by leading or by check/raising is the point at which we are now saying "I have the best hand, call me at your peril." If it checks through on the turn, though, a river lead for $75 says, "Well, I may have the best hand, or you all may have nothing." Your $75 on the river is much likelier to be called light than on the turn.
If they've got 99/A9/AQ/Ax it's a cooler and they'll almost certainly oblige with a bet, and then it'll come down to how much hand they need to get broke with and whether you're on the good side of the cooler. But I think that's the other thing to keep in mind here -- if V is not getting broke with Ax, you're actually doing bad on combos -- there's two AQ, six A9, and only three 99 -- you're 8:3 behind if they have to have a boat to get all-in. So the other thing a lead does is polarize *them* and not just you -- and not in a way you want.
You want this guy to have JTcc and continue his semibluff because he's "improved" to 15 outs, when the fact is he's now stone dead. You can check/raise him small, small enough a raw flush draw has odds to call, and then hope he gets there, because if you shove after that turn action he's wide enough now and the pot's big enough that he'll have to call.
Regardless, turn lead just seems terrible to me -- even LLSNL donkeys can see when the flow of the hand gets ripped away from them. They have to be thinking something!