Well there are a variety of reasons why you should raise and the biggest two are this:

1) for value
2) to merge your range

You don't want to raise if people aren't calling with worse unless the board is wet and you are raising to protect your equity. That being said if you raise on a wet board you likely have to raise/call but on this board it is a raise/fold.

We raise/fold because all better hands are shipping over the top and all worse hands are calling. If the donk better is betting out with trash and calling a raise then we should raise. If the donk better is betting out with strong hands (TPGKish) and folding them to action then we should call.

It is all a function of keeping his range wide and getting him to put in as much money bad as possible.

i don't think it is bad to raise (we are obviously way ahead of his range). We are in a spot that we are either way ahead or way behind and I think we fold out most hands with our flop raise that he would lead the turn with.

On this turn the only cards that are scare cards are a jack, ace, or king. So if he has a hand like AJ he is only drawing to 5 outs.

So I'm saying that we lose value from a ton of hands that we are ahead of and mostly keep in the hands that crush us with our flop raise.

why do we want to merge our range vs. this guy?

it basically comes down to analyzing his calling range - b/c if I am villain in this hand there is no way I'm raising any set on this board because I know that the guy betting into me is only repping hands that I crush

But isn't a raise narrowing his range? For example, if he calls, perhaps we eliminate 98 (GS) and overweight JX hands. This will prevent him from betting most of his range going forward.

Perhaps the value optimization comes down to the direction we choose to take: 1) getting more via a raise (and call) now, or 2) via future streets?

This is close to what i read in the hand except i put his range to high. I adjusted to his play (and so did the entire table) and he ended up broke at the end of his session.

lol the fact that you place weight on members post counts speaks volumes. That being said, I have double your post count so you must take my opinion seriously right? In my first post, if you go back and read it, I agree with the "fish" and believe that flatting the flop is optimal. I also give reasons why. Any thoughts on this or are you just here to flame new members?

Excellent post.

it is a function of getting money in and keeping his range wide. Basically we want to make the most amount of money possible from all of his average card holdings. In this particular spot we should raise.