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QQ on terrible board QQ on terrible board

02-21-2024 , 11:50 PM
1/3. Hero has been at the table about an hour. Bought in for max 400, currently at $500. V I would classify as LAG. Capable of folding pre but only the worst of it. VPIP around 70%. Likes to play hands and will bluff. His stack has been around. Up to $800 down to $200 now around $600. His wide aggressive style gets him paid off with his good hands. Hero is btn with QhQs.

V UTG limps, 3 more limpers to the hero. Hero raises to $25. This was an amount I felt was needed to get heads up. V calls and all other fold. Heads up to the flop

Flop ($60). 6s 7s 8d

V check. Hero bets $25. V calls.

Turn ($110) 5h. Check check

River Ad. V bets $50. Hero?
QQ on terrible board Quote
02-21-2024 , 11:54 PM
Could check back flop on this board.

AP just fold and don’t sweat it. Terrible flop. Terrible runout. You beat nothing and this is the last river card he’s gonna bluff at.
QQ on terrible board Quote
02-22-2024 , 10:48 AM
Pre seems fine. Flop c-bet is okay, perhaps debatable. Turn check seems ok, perhaps debatable. River is just a fold.

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QQ on terrible board Quote
02-22-2024 , 11:07 AM
I'm cbetting otf (an UTG limp caller doesn't have too many straights in his range, it's usually AQ, big suited broadways, and other PP's of which he would have most likely c/r'd us on the flop if he has a set) and I'm betting the turn with the plan of checking back the river. As played I would fold the river.
QQ on terrible board Quote
02-22-2024 , 12:08 PM
I would check back the flop. Such a bad flop for QQ, especially vs this V. If I bet the flop, I bet the turn. I fold the river. Everything beats us, and he's betting into the one card that might hit us.
QQ on terrible board Quote
02-22-2024 , 01:47 PM
Maybe go a liiiittle bit bigger pre, like 35 or so. Huge multiways can develop at these stakes, especially with one of these super high VPIP players around. If he's a known call, or quite likely to be, one of the other 3 players is now just deciding to enter a three-way pot. It worked out as intended, but still I think going a bit bigger might be the play.
QQ on terrible board Quote
02-22-2024 , 01:55 PM
When you say 70% VPIP, that includes like K2o. Is that really accurate? And it's really not enough to ask what his VPIP is here. We need to ask ourselves what range he arrives with in the river that bets 60 into 110. So we should use our past observations to try to answer the following questions:

1. What hands can we preclude from villain from having when he limps? Is he raising ATs+ and limping A9s? Raising KTs and limping K9s? Or is his raising range higher or lower? Some guys limp call AQs.

2. What range does he call a $25 iso pre? Some villains will have 75o and others will fold A9o.

3. Does villain check raise a lot with value? With draws? With a marginal hand like T8 or K7? We might be able to discount some draws thst get there or some flopped value hands we lose to depending on the answers to these questions.

4. What does villain float the flop with? AJo? KQo? QJo? Are any of these hands things we can discount on because he called $25 pre?

5. Having narrowed villain's range from answring questions 1-4, how does he play that range on the river? Does villain bet too often on river when the turn checks through? Is he bluffing with JTo here? QJo? Is he not knowing what he is doing and stabbing with T8-K8 here? Does he use this middling sizing with nutted hands? When he bluffs, does he size up or down? Do you think he goes this size with Ax? 2P? 4x? Does he bet 9x and T9 bigger if we can't rule some of that out because of the flop?

I think we can call vs some villains and fold vs others based on how we answer these questions. We kind of need villain to be the type of player who lump calls very wide, floats flops very wide, and over stabs river after turn checks through. The kind of player that will limp call JTo and then float the flop on 432. And/or overstab river with a hand like T8, K7, 22, etc.
QQ on terrible board Quote

      
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