Join Date: Dec 2022
Posts: 1,689
When you say 70% VPIP, that includes like K2o. Is that really accurate? And it's really not enough to ask what his VPIP is here. We need to ask ourselves what range he arrives with in the river that bets 60 into 110. So we should use our past observations to try to answer the following questions:
1. What hands can we preclude from villain from having when he limps? Is he raising ATs+ and limping A9s? Raising KTs and limping K9s? Or is his raising range higher or lower? Some guys limp call AQs.
2. What range does he call a $25 iso pre? Some villains will have 75o and others will fold A9o.
3. Does villain check raise a lot with value? With draws? With a marginal hand like T8 or K7? We might be able to discount some draws thst get there or some flopped value hands we lose to depending on the answers to these questions.
4. What does villain float the flop with? AJo? KQo? QJo? Are any of these hands things we can discount on because he called $25 pre?
5. Having narrowed villain's range from answring questions 1-4, how does he play that range on the river? Does villain bet too often on river when the turn checks through? Is he bluffing with JTo here? QJo? Is he not knowing what he is doing and stabbing with T8-K8 here? Does he use this middling sizing with nutted hands? When he bluffs, does he size up or down? Do you think he goes this size with Ax? 2P? 4x? Does he bet 9x and T9 bigger if we can't rule some of that out because of the flop?
I think we can call vs some villains and fold vs others based on how we answer these questions. We kind of need villain to be the type of player who lump calls very wide, floats flops very wide, and over stabs river after turn checks through. The kind of player that will limp call JTo and then float the flop on 432. And/or overstab river with a hand like T8, K7, 22, etc.