Quote:
Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ
I had seen father time on several occasions just call with strong hands rather than raise, but I was definitely too quick to just assign him trips. I really butchered this hand.
I think many of us tend to over-estimate the range of OMC's.
It gets easier to hand-read with them when it's multi-way and there are obvious draws on board. Like, if he had AA/KK or trips, he'd be raising, at least some of the time, not flat calling. I think he'd be flatting with 77-JJ, and some un-paired combos that are just strong enough to peel.
It seems like whenever an OMC is taking a passive line in spots like this, if they don't have some weird PP that could have been 3B, then it's always with JT, QJ, or something like that, just hoping to spike top pair on the turn. It would surprise me if he had 75 here, but if so, then that just goes to show how easy it is to over-estimate the OMC range.
It sucks to raise on a paired board and have to fold to a 3B, but if you think about it, most of the low stakes player pool is either going to slow-play trips by going for a check-raise, or donk lead for a larger size, to protect their hand. Betting 25 into 45 is sort of a "see where I'm at" value-bluff, hoping to fold out AK/AQ and maybe 77-99.
If V1 is a PLO player, he might not even come back over the top with a 3B, and might check to us on the turn.
I wouldn't put V1 on 55 exactly, but if we think he might have 77-99, it's basically the same hand. It's that "hard to make a pair" thinking in action.