Quote:
Originally Posted by madrobin
When V called the rather large turn bet, that was a red flag...or a screaming air raid siren...or a neon sign blinking on and off: "You might be screwed." At that point, your opponent could conceivably have been on some kind of draw. When the river paired the board, though,
(hang on, let me turn on my English-to-Pokerspeak translator)
V's range was polarized. He was OOG with HYF and since he was a SRYPF, he probably was POOP and the guy at the next table blocked all straight flushes, you should have value bet the hypotenuse of his range, hoping to get in both light and dark with
(OK, it's not working; back to English)
he either missed his draw (no value to be gained by shoving) or hit his hand hard (since he probably would have raised you on the flop if he'd hit top pair), which obviously would also have made shoving unprofitable.
The actual result of the hand doesn't matter. What's relevant is that this situation didn't merit a shove. I think you may have thought, "He's a fish, he'll pay me off with whatever junk he has." But even a fish may engage in logical thought. The hand you were hoping for (he had J-something) was much less likely than the hand you dreaded (8-something).
Therefore, I would have checked the river. If your hand was good at that point, there was no more money to be made anyway.
Why would an 8 be more likely than a J on that runout?
If I check the river, the villian is going to shove. With 2 draws missing is it always a fold with the board pairing with middle pair? Top pair, that's an easy check fold.
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