$1/2 game.

Hero MAWG with solid image so far. Villain is middle age Indian guy. Kind of passive pre and ABC post. Haven't had any hands against each other but have had interesting convo about politics and the economy in India.

Hero opens red QQ from utg to $12. Villain has $185 and calls in BB. Hero covers.

Flop comes 964dd. V checks, H bets $18, V calls. Turn is 2d. Check, check.
River is Tc. V leads for $45. Hero?

So my initial thoughts are he always has it, but I need to call based on how I played the turn.

Appreciate feedback about turn check and river decision. Thanks.

Yes, you should have bet the turn. If he called the turn and bet the river, you'd have an easier fold. It wouldn't have cost you any more money, either.

As for the river, there's going to be some % of the time you'll be good. Pot is about 60 and the bet is 45. You need to be good over 30% of the time. Against this description of the villain, you won't be good that often. Fold.

What Venice said. Bet the urn and if raised, evaluate whether to continue. 95%+ of V's at this level will not bluff raise so you can be confident that when you are raised, then generally have it. The only difference in this case (if you had bet the turn and were raised) is whether you would potentially get odds to continue.

Ignoring all else, someone you've developed friendly rapport with is unlikely to be bluffing you @ any point in the hand iyam. It's one of the benefits of being good-natured/accessible while playing.

Yea. He spiked a set on the river.

He's probably thinking "I got that nit to pay me off because we had friendly rapport!" Lol

I knew not to call. We resumed our conversation about housing prices in India.

So why did you check the turn? You need to protect your equity and continue to bet for value against 9x holdings, straight draws

You have Qd so you block some flush combos in his range, i don’t see your stack size unless I missed it but I’m betting 50 OTN and calling a jam of 100 more

As played that card hits some 9x combos (910) and the 87 comes in but yes you can’t fokd now either way

OP you should note which specific cards are diamonds, if you can remember. Sometimes it makes a difference as to whether villain can have TP+FD or not.

Definitely bet the turn. There are only max 35 flush draws villain can have since you have the Qd. Realistically he probably has more like 12 max as you've described him as tight. To put things in perspective there's 12 combos TT - JJ (before the river) and 4 - 16 combos 87 and 3 - 12 A9. Also lots of AdX hands, which is where it matters which card is the nondiamond. He's more likely to call pre and OTF with Ad9x than Ad6x IME.

River...really seems like he has TT and made a set, or possibly 87 and made a straight. He could have some busted AdX but given your description and that you've talked a lot I don't think he's that likely to be bluffing you. Also not likely to be turning JJ into a bluff, though it's possible he thinks it's good after the two checks. I would just sigh fold and ask him later what he had.

So V wouldn't 3 bet pre flop with TT or JJ from BB? That does seem passive. Range seems condensed to me. FWIW I would make a crying call on the river as played.

Grunch
I bet 40 on turn for value, folding to a jam, maybe calling a min raise.
River is a pretty lame spot, diamonds and 78 got there, only a few missed straight draws for bluffs. Doubt he's value betting worse, I pretty much always just call and lose here, maybe one day I'll be good enough to fold.

We were 200 effective. I definitely think I should have bet the turn. I would have probably folded to a shove, though.

I have a problem with over protecting my stack at times. I want to keep pots small so the decisions on later streets are easier. I am trying to get to a point where my stack is going in either for value of as a bluff more often.

Still got a lot of work to do. Thanks.

Thanks. My note taking sucks so I don't remember which were diamonds. I see that is important to note. Appreciate you pointing that out.

Yea I definitely think he was that passive and thought I was that tight. Doubt he would have even 3bet QQ with me opening UTG. I play early in the day and most of my games are filled with people only 3betting AA and KK.

All good - I wasn’t asking to be a wise ass more just saying like “checking back for pot control” vs. checking back for a specific reason (like you can’t get three streets of value so you are delaying to the river or say putting the V on a range where you are no longer in value betting mode due to texture) etc I find that a lot of people check for “pot control” but aren’t thinking deeply about exactly why

For those saying fold on the turn to a raise I’m not sure I agree - I don’t think stacking off in this spot that shallow given this board texture and our holdings is that big of a mistake in the long run based on the assigned ranges but I’d love for others to debate and explain why etc.

Didn't take it in a "wise ass" way at all. And I'm here for advice. I'm even willing to be insulted to get it.

In the moment it was probably a combo of things. Pot control went through my mind, my default is i only even try to get three streets with one pair when I have AA and board is super dry, and I have a hard time getting my stack in without the nuts.

I think I agree with you on the turn. I would think I have outs with diamonds and some paired boards on the river. If there was a spot to bluff me off Ad with a pair might be something he would try. I just don't think I could call it off. I would fold and be on here asking if it was too nitty.

Appreciate your feedback.