V in this hand just sat down with $200 and is playing his first hand. Hero has about $400.

V open in EP to $8.
2 callers
Hero raises to $40 with QQ

V calls $40
Fold, Fold

Flop = J108 rainbow

V checks
Hero bets $70

V raises all in for about $85 more

So if we have the best hand about 1/3 of the time we should call, but how often are we beating AJ or KJ here?

How many villians are calling $40 with a hands like that?

Can hero bet less on the flop and find a fold to a shove?

Can hero 3 bet less pre flop and still get 1 caller?

Personally, I felt like a 3 bet between $35-40 was the right amount. And I could have maybe bet a little less on the flop, but I'm not sure if that would have changed much.

pre is fine, flop is fine, snap call

we 3bet preflop for value (and rarely if ever 3b bluff) because people are sometimes calling with junk like jx, kq, t9

(i might actually make it a bit smaller pre to induce lighter calls but 40 isn't bad)

if we're not good to b/call it off here then we shouldn't be 3betting preflop eh?

What is this, 1/2? I would submit that your hand is good approximately never.

Wait, what? If my math is right, we have to call $85 into a pot of ~$320. That means we only need about 20% equity, which makes it a super easy call. Even if his range is ONLY sets, it's a call.

Assuming its 1/2, my answers to ur questions
- almost never
- Again never
- yes, 40-50 accomplices the same thing as 70, given the villains stack size ( 160)
- again 25-30 accomplices the same result as 40 pre.
30+40=70, u can fold. But 110, no u cant. Villain has jj or tt for a set. U can hit 9, q or runner runner ak.

+1

With spr of 2.5 im getting it in on any non-A/K flop. Bet/folding flop is criminal.

Also agree with slightly smaller pre.

Nh

Are we beat? Most likely.

Do we fold? Never.

He likely has JJ or 1010 but we are still getting pot odds to call. Our 24% to the 20.9% pot odds.

Mathz says its 2.8-1, so we need to be good here 1-3.8 times. That's like ~26% needed equity. Against a range of 88+ we have 36%...
Seems like an easy call after the fact.

To be more specific

To be clear, the question is, what is the average 1/2 player likely to open raise with on his very first hand sitting down. The average 1/2 player does not bet/fold. 79 and Q9 aren't likely in his opening range, and card-removal effects make the latter particularly unlikely. I don't feel good about including KJ without a read, AJ maaaaybe.

I could buy the idea of an opening range than includes 88+,AK. But does villain check raise all-in with 99 and AK? In fact, I'm not even sure we should include AA,KK in his crai range. If he were going to bet to protect his hand, I think your average 1/2 player would donk out, rather than taking the risk of allowing the hand to check through. Same logic applies to AJ.

I think his most generous crai range is TT+,88 and it becomes a question of whether you are priced in for the four 9's and two Q's still out there. And it is darn close, I get 24.8% equity vs 25.3% needed.

The point of my first comment is, I don't assume my queens are good. I have six outs that should be good, 6*2*2=24%, same answer.

But, if you include AJ in his crai range, you're gtg. That's not a bad assumption, just not one I would make.

You can do anything you want. The thing about SPR isn't so much that it requires you to call, it's that playing in the lower SPR ranges, as Harrington puts it, is a matter of courting pot commitment. The time to decide whether you want to play for stacks is OTF, because once you bet that flop, stacks are going in.

I think the question is, whether to bet this flop at all. What do you expect villain to do in response to your bet OTF? You want a call from 99 and AK. Are you thinking maybe he folds AA or KK? If he does, he certainly folds AJ/KJ. This is kind of a tricky spot, your queens are "boxed in" by the board and villain's tight range, making it feel like you are playing a mid-pp.

Your option is to take the free card and either try to get to showdown cheaply, or spike one of your six outs and take villain to value-town because he almost certainly has a hand that he can't get away from.

Probably, but why would you? In those halcyon days, you were still after villain's stack, and that was a good way to get it.

pf: 40 might be a little big bc I think typically, you get no action. In this case, it was perfect bc you got one caller. Usually, I think 25-40 is the right size here.
OTF: dirty board but have a gut shot and an over card. You can get a lot of information -- or folds -- from a smaller bet, like 40. If you 3! $25, the $40 on the flop is about right.
As played, I don't fold an overpair against a V on his first hand very often. Vs range definitely includes AJs, KJs, QJs, KQs, 99, two pair hands, q9s, 97s, 98s, T9s, AA, KK, sets, and bluffs. I think you're ahead of his range often enough to call and getting the right price with only six outs to bail you out if you're behind.
A lot of 1/2 players open for 8 very wide and players new to the table often will defend the first raise they make. They don't want to start with an image of getting pushed around so they call light.