Yep, she’s talking ****, she was calling all day long.

why did she check river instead of betting then?
if she's never folding her flush at any point, she should be piling chips into the middle. clearly she doesn't feel comfortable losing her whole stack with the 3rd nuts.

Both of your hands are pretty much faceup at decision time....but the pot is a big pile of chips and two stacks of red will look small by comparison. You can definitely get a call betting more than $85 into a $350 pot. How much? You know the player best.

Have you played 1/2 before? People are ridiculously passive and love to call. Flushes never fold.

Come on man.

What people say they will do and what people actually do often differs. OP you were there and obviously have a better feel for V than we do, but I do get the sense you are trying to feel good about your decision vs. taking an objective look at your play.

Just make sure you understand the math. If you do think that $85 is the right amount, you need to believe that she is calling ~3x as much the $85 bet vs. a shove.

Also recognize a possible psychological bias in that by shoving we know she will call less and thus we will have that regret feeling more often that "we should have bet less" but that doesn't make the smaller bet the most +EV play unless she really is calling less than 1/3 as much when you shove vs. an $85 bet.

Yeah, you guys know those 60y.o. Woman are always full of ****. Can’t believe a word they say at the poker table. Obv she’s lying and would snap call a jam. /end sarcasm.

I see flushes and sets folded quite a bit. Doesn’t surprise me at all. I believe (as I said before results) that $130 or so would have max valued against her range.

Stack size dictates that you jam here.

EDIT Post-spoiler: if she is folding the 3rd flush you can bluff her in this spot pretty easily. Folding near the top of her range to less than a PSB is pretty easy to exploit. The fact that she is claiming she would have folded indicates she was probably calling a jam here.

Here's a fun fact. Anytime villain snap calls, you made a sizing mistake.

Shove ($235) only has to be called 35% of the time to make it neutral EV with $85 assuming that size is called 100%.

I can't say for certain that shove is the best size, but clearly $85 was mega low.

yeah, most 60 yo woman are very exploitable. not really a surprise there.

Scott you're missing the point. It's not that she's trying to be deceptive by saying she would not have called an all-in when in fact she knows she would have called. It's that after seeing his hand and thus knowing what the result would have been, she is biased and wants to believe she would have laid down 3rd nuts to a river jam.

I read through the whole thread; I think you are misunderstanding the river check by the villain. This (and any) player's calling range and betting range can be wildly different. She could just have easily been hoping for a cheap showdown, which is exactly what we gave her with such a small bet. With a jam being a 2/3 PSB here, she may have hemmed and hawed and been sick about calling, but called all the same.

At the very least we can bet half the pot here. $85 is just too small.

Exactly.

Here is how you can often translate a comment like "I would not have called any more than [whatever hero bet]":

I would have hemmed and hawed, thought for a long time, probably made a comment like "I know I'm beat but I have to pay you off" to protect my ego... BUUUUT eventually called.

Ha ha! This is the most insightful and constructive post i’ve read in a while (completely serious). Sometimes it’s easy to forget the little things.

I don't think that shes thinking about 'what percent of the pot the river bet is'.
Shes thinking more along the lines of 'I bet 90 on the turn, now this guy is going all in for 235, which is a substantially bigger bet. This is what i was trying to avoid by checking river, sigh fold'

I agree 85 is too small, and my original post saying 110 is a little small too. I would def keep it under 200 tho.

For the love of god, shove river. Any other sizing is criminal. Sometimes poker is hard, sometimes it's easy. Here it's easy. She's never folding a flush.

Lots of nonsensical reasoning itt.

really disagree with ' shes never folding a flush' Even if you make the argument that she calls a jam with the J hi flush, that's only 1 combo, 2 if you include J7. She has way more lower flushes that she will always fold. People forget how big a $235 bet feels at 1/2, no matter how big the pot is. In theory, yes, easy jam. exploitatively, bet smaller and get called by all flushes.

I don't think my reasoning is very 'nonsensical' at all. People make hero folds for bets this big at 1/2 because they are so rare, and tbh they're usually right to do so, as no one is ever bluffing or valuing worse here.

ROFL

People don't drive to the casino to fold two-card flushes on unpaired boards. When you value jam into them, they will tank, say "I know you have it, but I just gotta see it. If you got me, you got me," and call.

Every. Single. Time. It's not an exaggeration. If you find players who can properly fold flushes in this spot, let alone the third nut flush, either bluff them nonstop or avoid them altogether because they're in the top 5% of the player pool.

It’s not that she’s “lying” per say, she is just never folding in reality. It’s possible she believes (after the hand is over) that she would. She will look back at that flush and it will go against every grain of her being to let it go. She may tank for a minute or two but she is never folding, not ever! This is a 60 yo lady playing 1/2, c’mon dude.

Irrelevant, not folding.

The only reason I like raising the flop is to make the decisions a lot easier OTT, when you said she tightens up extremely. Not saying she never has Kxhh on flop but with how loose you say she is PF and OTF, the other combos of hers here definitely line up with that information and she is too inexperienced to see you holding the nuts or second nuts if you are raising the flop here.

My most memorable win with a flush: 3 way & I'm IP. They check to me OTR & the pot is large for a 1/2NL game. I bet like $85 [35-40% of pot] with a 9 hi flush. They both called!

I can't see my flush being best, however, they BOTH had lower flushes!

this thread is something...

River is easiest shove in the world.

approximately zero percent chance she would have folded her flush on the river. greater than zero percent chance that the guy asking everyone if they've played 1/2 NL before has not actually played 1/2 NL before.

For me - I would put villiains on these range
V1 - all Ace rags 35%
V2 - all Ace rags, flush draw, maybe set, pair of 9 with flush, or just 9 30%
Hero - QhTh - 34%

Given that it is $20 into $100 on flop, it is a no-brainer call, but I would raise ~$95 in this spot because I might be able to have V1 fold a low Ace that might be the best hand here and if I can get someone to fold a Kh draw. Now I also understand if V2 has low heart draw, we may lose $ by raising but if we dont hit and we miss we will be losing this regardless by calling. Also since we're in position, they will most likely check to us Turn and we can decide whether to semi-bluff or check to see a free card on river.

By knowing what their cards are, I dont think V2 is going anywhere to our raise and V1 may be sticking around. Not sure whether he'll fold or not, but assuming V2 stays in that would leave $270 on Turn with $255 behind for us.

Since we hit turn, I would probably look to size turn/river to make it small and get it AI by river. Betting $100 turn, $155 river would got us to double our chip count.