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Psychology of bet sizing Psychology of bet sizing

08-19-2015 , 10:22 AM
(Just to clarify, this isn't a thread about percentages of the pot or "proper" bet sizing.)

Two recent incidents have got me thinking about this:

-- I was sitting next to a chatty older guy. I bet $12 to open the action after a couple limpers (a 1-2 game). He said something like, if you bet $15 you want a call, if you bet $12 you want a fold. He said this like it was maxim he followed at the poker table, not something specific to my bet sizing. In this case, $15 is an easier size to bet, since it's just three red chips, which everyone has a huge stack of ... a lot of guys need change to bet $12. That's the only thing I could figure he was referring to.

-- I was playing a home game and made a pfr to something like 3xBB + a fraction of a BB. It was a micro-stakes tournament, but in terms of chip count the blinds were maybe 200-400, one limper, and I opened to maybe 1400 or something. Everybody folded. Next hand a guy talks about my tricky bet sizing and how it worked for me.

Do round amounts get more callers, and amounts that make the dealer make change get fewer callers? Does the table standard, say, $10, get more callers and an odd amount like $11 get fewer callers? Or vice-versa? At a home game with no dealer where making change is awkward, is this even more pronounced? Do unusual bet sizes scare people off or draw them in? These effects could be unconscious or conscious ... Do certain villains react in a predictable way, tending to, say, more aggressively call an odd bet size because they're suspicious?

My guess is that if you could track a 100,000 hands played at live 1-2, some kind of slight or minuscule trend would emerge, but I'm not sure which direction it would be in.

(I'm not claiming figuring this out is some magic bullet to crushing live poker, just something I'm noodling around in my head.)
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08-19-2015 , 10:25 AM
Yes OP in fact the old man is correct. Many posters here have tracked thousands of hands in live play and found that 15 gets called more than 12.
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08-19-2015 , 10:34 AM
I believe it. I've seen it done, too. I think I've done it -- reached for whites, didn't have them, so folded (maybe raised a couple of times) -- psyching myself out. Totally wrong, but whatever.
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08-19-2015 , 11:29 AM
The concept of sizing our bets to get opponents to do what we want is, for the most part, very overrated at lower limits, imo. Most opponents are either calling or they ain't, and it almost has nothing to do with the size of the bet so long as the bet is considered reasonable (not ridiculously small or ridiculously large).

My game is constantly full of people who see a raise or bet, have no idea what the exact amount it is ($16? $18? $23? $25?), but just know they want to call, so they quickly put a few red $5 chips into the pot and then ask the dealer if they need to put any more in.

Gsimplysizethebettoasizethatbenefitsusandourplan,i moG
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08-19-2015 , 11:41 AM
Yeah, there's barely anything to this.

The main psychological factor impacting bet sizing is probably "anchoring" -- if people are used to $6 raises at the table, $12 will seem big. If they're used to $15 raises, $12 will seem small.

But anchoring is going to be pretty muted when playing against a bunch of regs and degenerates who have played hundreds or thousands of hours of poker. And the much bigger psychological impacts are going to be "are they here to gamble," "are they scared of losing," and "how pretty are their cards."

There's almost no profit in trying to manipulate your bet sizing by a dollar or two to prompt player reactions.
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08-19-2015 , 11:54 AM
This thing again?


I bet $12 because it's two red chips more than the big blind, and I want the BB to come along. If I bet $11, it's to keep the SB in, and chase the BB who might not have a single white chip.

j/k of course.


If anything, I think that much like pricing ending in 9, (or 4), it seems like less for players considering a call. No, it doesn't make sense, and nobody is folding a strong hand, or considering a call with a weak hand based on that.

Maybe a player makes a marginal call or fold based on the ease of calling the bet?
Some players don't like attention, or don't want to be seen as the idiot who can't call the bet smoothly.

Re: Tourneys and odd increments... Only if you think there are players that will wonder more about the bet size, and less about how to play their hand. I suspect there is a non-zero chance that 1400 accomplished the same thing that 1200 would have, but the comment now has you pondering bet sizing, instead of focusing on the tourney.
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08-19-2015 , 02:49 PM
Since I'm playing a tighter range from most positions, my only bet sizing concern is whether I can get the fish to call a bigger bet than their weaker range will justify (I can).

I have been paying more attention lately to other player's sizing and how it affects the pot size compared to my pot sizes. If their $10 bet gets three callers and my $15 bet gets two callers, they're in a $40 4-way pot and I'm in a $45 3- way pot. Now I'm able to build a bigger pot that I'm more likely to win (or steal with bigger, but still pot-size appropriate bets).

The other upside to betting larger is that eventually you'll get more callers because they're "sick of you raising all the time." Notice that they make the wrong adjustment; instead of a 3!, they call more often and play fit-or-fold (which = more dead money in the pot for me to win). Now when I get a monster, I've got more money in there and it's easier to get stacks in, if I can coax them into sticking with this pot.

So in short, I wouldn't worry about what the table likes or thinks is "standard. " You set your own price and let the customers decide if they're willing to pay it.
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08-19-2015 , 06:14 PM
Against people who are paying attention, they might pay attention to how quickly you bet or call. Especially big bets on later streets. If sometimes you stop, think, carefully count out chips to the dollar; and other times, you just throw a handful of chips in there without thinking, you could be giving information. I've had people point out that when I take my time and count out my chips, I usually have the goods. Now I'm careful to follow the same procedure every time.

Pre, I dunno. I vary my bets all over the place, depends on stack size, my reputation, what I'm trying to do at the moment. Again this draws comments sometimes but they have no idea what I'm thinking and I don't see it affecting their behavior anyway.

Laws of nature (eg position and stack size) are more important than reads, and reads are more important than tells. Gotta keep that in mind. If all they have on me are tells, I'm not too worried. If all I have on them are tells, I'm not paying enough attention.
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08-19-2015 , 06:56 PM
Don't think there is much psychology for 12 vs 15. I think psychology is probably more relevant for a post-flop bet of 95 vs 100 vs 105 or in another scenario betting 150 in reds vs greens.
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08-19-2015 , 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
My game is constantly full of people who see a raise or bet, have no idea what the exact amount it is ($16? $18? $23? $25?), but just know they want to call, so they quickly put a few red $5 chips into the pot and then ask the dealer if they need to put any more in.
This, also you should be making sure your table is like this if you're playing 1/2 NL IMO.
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08-19-2015 , 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U.
I think psychology is probably more relevant for a post-flop bet of 95 vs 100 vs 105 or in another scenario betting 150 in reds vs greens.
How would this impact the psychology?

I seem to have missed the memo on this whole topic. Can't remember it seeing addressed in any of the books or threads I've read. ...
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08-19-2015 , 09:58 PM
I would think its pretty obvious that 100$ is a psychological amount
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08-19-2015 , 11:14 PM
The whale in seat 3 doesn't have white chips, but his Jack and 9 are the same color so whether it's 12 or 15 he is going to see a flop.
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