I would not make this so difficult. With these stacks it would be STD to simply barrel the turn with a large bet, which really leverages the villain for his whole stack if he calls the turn bet.

Will depend a lot on just how fishy the guy can play. JJh TTh should find folds IF they play well, but if they play like normal 2-5 guys they will call. I would default to simply betting turn.

Chk raising allin there wreaks of a bluff but who knows if he will hero call or simply fold to betsize. Your judgment there.


Note:

1-- The fact that he only opened 3x then called a huge 3 bet.

2-- He calls the flop bet.

3--He bets 150 when chkd to---rather than taking a free card.

Lots of screwing around going on and I seem to smell a rat. As played I would fold turn.

it seems to be a virus that infects this forum every few months.... you get advice on everything of what you should have done UP TO the critical point in the hand, implying that they really don't have any good advice because they would never be in this spot in the first place.

what are we doing here? fold pre

I mean thanks for taking a lot of time and thought, but as far as content.... wow, just wow.

Seriously guys, bad advice is one of the worst things you can do on this forum. I hadn't posted strat thread here in quite a while, and some responses are pretty mind-boggling. While just a live donk rec w/fps-spew tendencies, I can at least recognize good from bad advice. However a lot of posters/newbies cant make the distinction, so in that case posting in this community could very much hurt him/end rant.

sonnyalbo, I put you on my ignore list.

Please add me to yours.

The purpose of this forum is to get better. If yours is to just keep your existing ideas about the game and no open mindedness towards criticism, then so be it.

But if im already on your ignore list, then this falls on deaf ears.

I'm not really sure what you want to hear sonny. You certainly didn't engage Willy in any point-by-point discussion of his very lengthy post. You simply said he was wrong. You did the same earlier with Ohlongjohnson.

Frankly, if you want to get better, perhaps you are the one without an open mind?

However, if you are simply looking for validation, then I love your play.

Well, I clicked "view post" despite having you on ignore.

I'm not good at ignoring people to be honest.

What range do YOU put villain on? 99-JJ, 8x?

That's like ~3-4 dozen hand combos.

Villain's range probably includes likes 12 dozen+ hand combos (3-4x more than it seems like you realize), including tons and tons of floats on this texture and given pre-flop depth (and your 3-bet sizing).

BTW, further, if he can have 8x or other weird pairs, he can have a ****load of air. And he might not fold 1 hand combo to a c-bet on 832hh in this spot.

So I don't like barreling this turn on the total blank because you're not getting enough folds against worse (when he folds, he folds air).

I also don't like your check/shove because he's not folding over pairs enough.

I do think there's plenty of merit to check/calling the turn with your nut no pair, over cards, and draw against a range of hands that is likely pretty air heavy and then checking all rivers and seeing what he does. If you want to criticize that reasoning, then go ahead, I'm all ears. Instead, what you wrote was this:

That's not constructive criticism - that's being a ****ing ******* after I posted in your thread regarding a hand that you ****ed up from start to finish either in your play or in your assessment (3-bet pre is way to small... $85 is better... flop bet is actually not that bad... turn c/shove is w/e, sure he folds a bunch, but it's very often because you have the best hand).

Willy basically encouraged me to play my exact hand as a bluffcatcher. Apparently AKhi on this very wet texture, with dynamics involved is a good bluff catcher. He further implied that after I check call turn, a check call on the river (even those that still remain my hand as Ak-hi), is good as opponents hand becomes very polarized. What he advises is basically exactly how a loose passive fish at live 2-5 games would play it, except he used 2p2 terminology to illustrate his reasoning. I got nothing against the man, just pointing out the flaws.

The other poster advised to bloat the pot significantly bigger pre, so I could bet bigger on flop, then easily bet/call turn. The very simple point he misses is the (unnecessarily) bigger size of the pot, the narrower opponent's ranges become (its 2-5 against a tag remember?). Basically exactly how a bad lag fish would play it.

Nobody's here for ****ing validation. And im not here to preach either. Just saying what I see.

I realize I came off as arrogant in my first response to Willy. It was not my intention. I just honestly implied the flaw in his reasoning would be easily understood and not needed to be addressed specifically, which was a mistake on my part.

Again, this is all my reasoning, so all constructive criticism/discussion is welcome. No need to turn this into a dick waving contest.

Cool story, how about we make it into a villain range contest.

What do YOU think villain's range is after he bets the turn?

I just read this after posting the last one.

I do agree 85 pre is better. On the turn Im not doing it to fold worse hands than mine. What im trying to do is fold stubborn 8s (any suited connectors, gappers w an 8 in it), 77-JJ, and even some kind of 2pair hands (the last one is mostly calling, but I figured the sheer pot amount might scare him into levelling into a fold a non zero percentage of the time).

Also i had already shown down twice Khi on wet boards, where I barreled flop turn heads up. (In the op). So basically if I bet turn instead of check jam I get called too often and then heroed on river most of the time.

And check call turn is lightning money on fire. Hes a tag, he's not floating this kinda flop against a comfortable lag, just to see what i do on turn, 200 bigs deep.

Im curious what other value hands are you check raising the turn with expecting a call? What part of villains turn betting range are you expecting to fold? Both hands he is betting for value or as a bluff.

Maybe if villain is more weak tight than tag read:"scared money", the turn c/r would be good.

Lets assume 30% equity if called what type of fold equity do you need to make it a profitable spot?

KK+, mostly w a heart is what im reppin.

As said in one of my first posts, I had no reason to believe villain was a good enough hand reader to realize im just bet-folding KK+ on this texture.

Yeah, I mean, check/shoving the turn obviously is obviously +EV.

Calling is +EV, too. Maybe moreso, maybe less.

You think villain can have hands like 85s, 86+, 98, T8, J8, 77-JJ, etc.

If he can have those hands, then he also has a ton of hands you beat. Again, he's not folding flop very often at all on 832hh in this spot.

I don't know if he'll fire again with air on rivers. Maybe, maybe not. If he folds some made hands, check/shoving the turn to max out whatever fold equity you might have is obviously good, and you obviously have huge pot equity. But if he doesn't fold enough better hands, that shouldn't be the best line. His ratio of air to made hands (oh so sorry am I using big terms that you're going to mock me for again?) is super high, and I wonder if check/calling to let him get to the river with his air is more +EV than check/shoving to see if we get him to fold top pair+ type hands, which I think is a very small % of his total range and which I'm not confident he does fold, anyhow.

Also, you still have not answered the question - what do YOU think villain's ENTIRE range is for calling pre, calling flop, and betting turn?

Not just the range we want him to fold / he might fold... what's his entire range.

According to the OP, villain seems pretty competent and a tag, so I'm assuming he can hand read a little bit here. However, I know you said "I dont have enough history to decide if V can think on ranges" so ultimately it seems like you are hoping the pure size of the bet will force him off your targeted range "(stubborn 8s (any suited connectors, gappers w an 8 in it), 77-JJ, and even some kind of 2pair hands)."

Grinder tags normally can hand read/range to some basic level, at least that would be my starting point until proven otherwise. For a minute, I'm going to think that a grinder can do some very basic range analysis. Even if you are active, your own range seems pretty polarized here. Big over pairs are probably out of the question (turn check), as are sets (3b pre), straights (3b pre), and probably middling flushes (turn check). If I'm sitting in his shoes, that's what I'm pondering with almost my whole range.

Obviously you may not fit the mold and are creative enough to have some of those holdings when you CRAI here and merge AA/KK, but I'd just have to pay you off with any type of value hand personally.

His entire range pre is 22+, suited Broadway', and what I said before.





If I knew guy was a 2p2er, I prolly dont pull trigger since im getting heroed a lot. He just looked like yr average run of the mill grinder (who was dressed in cheap jogging clothes and couldn't shuffle chips very well).

And Will, what im trying to say is he's not floating nearly enough of his air range otf, to force me to think about getting to showdown mode anywhere after that.

Typing on tablet is slow heh

If he never folding a flush or a set, there is one or 2 combos of flushes a tag might have here. KQhh maybe KJhh or JThh

88, 22, 33 not folding. You seem to think he can have so,me "random 8s" so maybe we need a range of something like 78s-89s, 9Thh, JThh+, QThh+. 77-JJ, two combos of QQ?

9 set combos 27 other combos. Lets say 5 rando floats he is folding. One combo of AA or KK... Lets assume he folds all hands wo a heart and not sets. plus 77.

9 sets + 6 pairs with hearts, 6 flushes, one combo QQ and AA. 23 combos he is calling out of 41. About half (inc rando bluffs) he folds.

800 to win 450 your bet need to work way more than 50% of the time. With your image, I think it is optomistic.

Hope I did the ranges and calcs correctly.

If that's your read on V, then OK.

Also, it's not just showdown mode on the turn.

We need some amount of fold equity to make c/s better then c/c. Obviously if you're shoving and he's calling with all better, it's a pretty bad shove. We also have so much pot equity if we're behind - enough to make c/c on the turn +EV even if we don't win any more chips in the hand.

Now that you share your read that you don't think he's floating that light, then I'm more inclined to check/shove the turn to combine whatever fold equity we can against worse made hands with our huge pot equity. You have almost 40% pot equity against hands like 99-JJ, so you don't need that much fold equity to make it work. I still don't think it's a slam dunk, though you are also now saying that you feel villain probably can't hand read that well, etc.

Anyway, I'm not sure why I'm still posting ITT. Good luck.

Interesting analysis, but you didn't account for our pot equity when we're behind. Your analysis treats the turn check/shove as a no-equity pure bluff.

It's a semi-bluff.

We have a wheel draw, the nut flush draw, and nut over cards.

So you have to include our pot equity against worse when he calls.

Like if villain calls with 88, we still win 25% of the time.

We probably have greater than 30% pot equity against the calling range you're citing. Again, it's not like we always lose when he calls the turn.

Realized that when I hit send. What would your overall equity be with the fold equity plus 30% pot equity? 50% of the time he calls and we have 30% equity? 50%×30%+50%=65%?

Looks just about breakeven EV if that is the case. P.S. thought you left the thread.

Also to the op: if you go bet bet bet, is he calling you with any pair? But folding these to a check raise?

Flushes and sets.