Hi guys I wanted to see how you guys recommend playing mid pocket pairs when facing a flop bet with a paired board. It has happened twice this past week and I want to hear a little more on your strategy on hands likes this. Example hand:
1/2 150bb Eff
CO opens to $18 (standard raise, open in this game)
CO is a loose fish who raises a lot and sees over 85% of flops
Folds to me on BTN and I flat with 99.
Blinds fold - heads up to flop. $39
4 J J rainbow
CO bets $45
I call.
Turn - ($129)
7
CO jams (about $210)
Thoughts?????
I couple put him on a J but don’t think he would cbet a flop he hit that hard.
I am thinking he either has an Ax hand or maybe a low pocket pair himself.
I thought about several ways to avoid a situation like this, either 3 betting pre or raising OTF to get a sense of where I stand.
But I have to call here against a loose player like this correct??
Last edited by Garick; 07-02-2019 at 11:49 AM.
Reason: added holding
Are overbets common in your game? This is a very dry board to be overbetting, and his range *should* be polarized, but I get the impression that V is an aggro-fish and could have just about any PP here as well as A-high or Jx.
I do think betting Jx here is good, as most LLSNL Vs are huge non-believers on paired boards, though I wouldn't be doing it as an overbet, and definitely not as a turn overbet, without a solid read on how my V reacts.
It's pretty obvious that calling off here with 99 isn't profitable unless your opponent is spewing, and in that case I think it's fine. I would rather have TT here just bc it blocks JT which he's much more likely to hold than J9. another consideration is that based on his sizing, we don't need to call a ton in order to print money. I haven't run the combos, but I have a feeling that if we just call with 44, 77, Jx, and QQ+ (or even just KK+) we are probably calling at a high enough frequency that we can fold the rest. From that view, he really has to be bluffing quite often in order for us to need to call with 99 here. That said, there's a pretty decent chance that 99 is good here if villain is as spewy as you think, and I don't hate bluff-catching against a guy who is going to put the chips back in play. Still this play only makes sense if you think he's going insane with 2 random cards.
There isn't enough information in the OP to determine whether your villain is that kind of player. just bc he sees tons of flops doesn't mean he's going to overbet shove barrel off with A6 or something. I don't know that there's much we can do to help you on this one since it's completely read dependent.
3-bet pre for sure. Call flop. Turn I probably fold. We have plenty of JX here and I don’t see these overbet jams as a bluff too often. But if you got a read that this guy spews specifically post flip, then call could be good.
