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Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold?

02-28-2012 , 11:03 PM
We had a very good home pokergame with a friends. I would like to ask about my biggest hand, would you have played it different.

Blinds were in chinese currency 5-10 and people bought in 1k.

My villain was seated directly to my right. He is a very good player and very active in table. Also I categorize him into "thinking player" who clearly has extensive history with online poker. He can call you with A-high saying "Your range is totally polarised and there is lots of bluffs in there" and he can 3-bet you with pocket 5's from position and make all sorts of moves to deceive you.

I play positionally aware aggressive game and had pissed my villain off many times by re-raising IP when he opens up and he had been forced to fold and moaned about it at least 3 times. Also he tried to 4-bet me but I shoved with KK and he had to fold there as well so I knew he was pissed off at my harassment.

His stack was over 3k, he had tripled up his starting stack. And he opened up from CO to 30.
My stack was 2300, also I had doubled up with steady rate, most of the hands end on flop or turn due my betting. I had AcAh on button and I re-raised to 90.
To my surprise, both blinds call my 90 and Villain calls as well.

Pot is 360 and flop came 8c, 8d, 3s
It's checked to me, and I bet 325, blinds fold and Villain shoves all-in.

It costs me 1800 to call, Pot has ballooned into 2800 and his line is sneaky check-raise on the board that I like with pocket aces. Now I tank to think... should I call or fold?

Spoiler:

I spend literally couple of minutes thinking it through.

I'm thinking that hands that crush me are: 88 (1 combo), 33 (3 combo), 87s/89s (4 combos) and hands that I crush are overpairs which he might have called the preflop just to trap me KK/QQ (12 combos)

I come to conclusion that making the call is mathematically correct but I'm still hesitant to call since it's first time I see him bet this big and I'm thinking is he capable of bluffing like this?!?

I come to conclusion that I've harassed him so much he may try to fight back, he has won a lot and even by losing this money his session wouldn't go into losing sessions so he is capable of making a play at me.

I make the call and he turns over A8s and the other blind says he folded AJs so I'm drawing dead.

Turn card is 8 so even if he had slowplayed and called.. I think by turn he would have trapped me with quads when I have 2nd nut hand.

I also made some EV calc with Stove, do you think this is correct?

Board: 8c 8h 3d
Hand 0: 54.219% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 45.781% { KK-QQ, 88, 33, A8s, 98s, 87s }

EV: 0.54*4600-1800 = 684

Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 12:47 AM
Bet less otf
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 12:55 AM
flop bets way too big. Theres no draws out there. Only thing calling is and 8 or 3s full. I have to fold to that shove. Again, theres no draws, so theres zero percent chance of semibluffing. Doubt he would shove with 99-QQ, and KK he wouldve reraised with the two callers from the blinds.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 12:56 AM
Bet less otf, bcs the board is extra dry and you don't want to commit and it turns your hand face up, when you pot it.
Also don't post results.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 05:41 AM
Home games are so rigged.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 08:20 AM
That 325 bet was excessive.

As for the all-in, that's a weird play. Could your villain possibly raise with any hand that contained an 8, and could he call a pretty stiff re-raise with such a hand? Pocket treys doesn't seem reasonable here. (8,3) even if suited seems unreasonable here. Given the dryness of that board, I'd expect a full or quads to just call to let someone play catch-up here.

How certain are you that he was tilted? Is it possible he could go maniac if he was, and have you seen him do that before? Sometimes, these players can be dangerous in that they just might show you something unexpected and unreasonable.

Could this villain be a Level Three thinker who'd reason I know he has aces. I know he knows that he has aces. Therefore, he won't call figuring his aces are beat. If he is, that tips the scales towards hero call. If he has not demonstrated that level of thinking, then it's likely the "impossible" happened, and he raised pre with some sort of garbagy hand that flopped top set or better.

I would prefer to keep out of these situations by going lighter on that flop, maybe 125 or 130, but not much over that. Don't make messy situations for yourself.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 09:05 PM
325 is too much on the flop, it generally guarantees that you're not going to get action from anything other than 8x or 33, and it also announces that you probably have a big overpair. The board is drawless and paired, so 325 into 360 is too much. Lead for something like 250 here - you'll get action from a lot more.

As far as once you get shoved on, it's tough for the forum to really help you out much, you simply have to make a snap decision in these types of situations as to whether or not he's got 8x/33, and go with your read. Impossible to really know which. It's a lot more likely that he has one of these than pure air, and you're not committed, so I'd lean towards folding.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 09:14 PM
Not to echo everyone, but the flop bet is too big. But its not like that made a big difference in the hand so I'm not sure why so many people are saying that and nothing else.

Flop shove puts you in a tough spot. I usually call here and usually lose. I talk myself into it being pretty stupid to play 8x like this. But they seem to have it a lot of the time. I don't know if I'm getting super leveled or if they are just bad players.

To some extent this depends how good of a player he is. If he is a pretty good player, but not a very good one, he may be bluffing "to rep an 8." If he is a good player he probably isn't bluffing too often because its a weird dry board to bluffshove. If he is a very good player he may be valueshoving thinking you'll think he's polarized and call pretty wide.

I think 2outs is right that we can't help too much. He probably does have a pretty narrow range. But a range can't be polarized if he's not often bluffing. I have learned that the hard way making them hero calls.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 09:16 PM
I agree with others with flop bet being to big. Seemed to me that villian put you on the exact hand you had with his shove. Tough fold, but I think you can fold it.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote
02-29-2012 , 10:47 PM
-----------------------------\/
Quote:
Originally Posted by CantfoldAA18
I agree with others with flop bet being to big. Seemed to me that villian put you on the exact hand you had with his shove. Tough fold, but I think you can fold it.
now THIS is funny, lol.
Pocket aces facing all in on river, should I, could you, would you fold? Quote

      
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