Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,518
I'm not loving the flop downbet here. We really learn nothing about V's range, we don't compress it much and V can float us with all kinds of stuff on draw-y board. Check or make a reasonable bet.
Turn check/call is okay but the passive line. I suppose we can try to get to showdown here. V can have 65s, a few T9s (which obviously we heavily block, but Ts9s is always possible here) and all the semi-bluff FDs. V's bet size looks like he is setting the price for his draw, not betting for value.
Going to the river if we call, we now have to fade spade, J,9,6,4 - so basically half the deck, but we get 3.5-1 to play. We basically have to x/c every brick river and fold everything that connects.
The alternative line is to lead out the brick turn around 1/2 psb and fold to a raise. V should fold his air/floats and SDs. He continues with Qx and FDs and raises his sets.
This is a close decision. There is ~150 in the pot. V is on short stack and may feel pot committed. So we may have no FE if we lead turn.
So I'm taking the passive line and calling turn, getting a nice price for V to brick river, which happens roughly 50%.