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Playing the "God draw" Playing the "God draw"

08-08-2018 , 11:51 PM
Hi all,

1/3. Hero playing $600. V $500. V is young Asian guy. Never seen him before. V opens $12 UTG and four callers including hero in BB with 10-9cc. Pot $41.

Flop: 8c-7c-3d.

Hero checks, V bets $20, one caller, hero c/r $60. V calls, caller folds. $181.

Turn: Jd. Hero bets $115. V calls. $411.

River: Js. Hero? Jam or bet a smaller amount?

Thanks,
DT
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:03 AM
You should raise more on the flop because:

1) V would be almost insane to b/f to that size with a caller between.

2) You couldve put V all in for only half pot only on the river.

AP, it feels like he may only be able to call better hands if we put him in for his effective 3/4 pot stack, and I may lean towards check calling, hard to say. Without reads, Id probably just shove though.

Edit: Id imagine its literally only a Jack that can pay us for this river size. (that we beat)
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:24 AM
What do you do here with ATcc, A9cc, 45cc, 56cc and A6cc and possibly A3cc? Do the same here

You got around 30 combos of values on the flop/turn (if you call 9To and 8-7s getting a pretty good price). If you give up here with 8-7s, and only are considering going for value with boats and straights with 9Ts, then you have 13 values. Calling $313 for a total post call pot of 1037 is 30%, if you have 5 or 6 bluffs here that jams, then jam, otherwise, the less bluffs you have in this situation, the less you can bet and be balanced. If you check here, most likely you will see a check back, it's rarely a boat here.

The most likely hands you will see here are probably QQ-AA actually, now that I think about it. AKcc also gets here like this, but other than that, you can probably comfortably gii here and expect a call a fair amount of time. Surely TT> fold on the turn
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:26 AM
Raise bigger OTF. Once you "match" the $20 flop bet the pot is $100 and you're only raising $40 more. Yes you have tons of equity, but I'd still prefer to raise to a size that generated some folds and doesn't just bloat the pot MW when you have 10 high. I would have raised to $100.

OTR , you could shove with just a 3/4 PSB remaining, but it may be difficult to get paid off by worse. I'd probably bet something in the $150 to get a crying call. I think you may fold out OPs with a jam.
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:28 AM
The advice to check call or bet smaller is way off the mark imo. Hero checkraised two opponents OTF, if V is not a thinking player you want to jam to get paid, if he is a thinking player then you need to rep busted draws, i.e. jam and get paid. You cannot x/r flop and then rep a medium strength hand.
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
The advice to check call or bet smaller is way off the mark imo. Hero checkraised two opponents OTF, if V is not a thinking player you want to jam to get paid, if he is a thinking player then you need to rep busted draws, i.e. jam and get paid. You cannot x/r flop and then rep a medium strength hand.
Exactly this, I can't put it like this succinctly enough.

TT> just cannot get here. If QQ+ calls 1/3-1/2 pot, they will most likely call a 3/4 pot with the main draw of clubs missing. Cos if hero is a thinking player, the river is a slam dunk jam with all your missed draws worth a raise on the flop as brought up in my original reply. Hands that make it this far is heavily weighted towards the top of villain's range, which are QQ+, AJcc, KJcc, AKcc and maybe QJcc and KQcc, which are 21 combos that can call off here, and 2 that you will rarely get value from anyways.

The more I think about this, the more I think this is a jam.
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:40 AM
^
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 12:46 AM
jam river, and not sure i mind the smallish sizing on the c/r flop given the buckets of equity and usual nonsense V1 and V2 may be holding at this point

turn sizing seems fine, river is a little bittersweet, but i think sets would have piped up on the flop and and bet/jammed or similar so you should be safe vv competent Vs.
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
jam river, and not sure i mind the smallish sizing on the c/r flop given the buckets of equity and usual nonsense V1 and V2 may be holding at this point

turn sizing seems fine, river is a little bittersweet, but i think sets would have piped up on the flop and and bet/jammed or similar so you should be safe vv competent Vs.
Yeah, I was wondering whether he had any flopped sets in his range and I didn't think so. Maybe JJ for quads, but that's it. Most Vs would have jammed flop or turn because "omg I have a set!"

Results: V tank called with QQ. Must have put me on busted clubs or something. (He was half right.) Yippie!
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 03:26 PM
Way more on flop. 60 is very bad and pointless size. River is easy shove it's 310 effective into 411.
Playing the "God draw" Quote
08-09-2018 , 03:27 PM
More on the flop and more on the turn and river jam becomes obvious.
Playing the "God draw" Quote

      
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