I don't have at on of experience playing big pots when both villain and I are >200 BB deep, so I often doubt myself. I'll include what I knew about villain at the end, but if possible I'd like to see your thoughts with and without knowledge of how villain plays so I can hopefully learn something about these types of situations in the future.


(Some folds and limps, I don't recall the exact number)
Villain (Has hero easily covered) in Seat 1 raises to $25
Folds to Hero
Hero (~$450) in Seat 4 raises to $75 with K Kx
Folds to villain who calls

Flop: T 6 3
Villain checks
Hero bets $150
Villain calls

Turn: Q
Villain goes all-in.

So at this point I have about $225 or so left, so I'm getting about 3-1 if I call. Of course I have an overpair and a just picked up a flush draw, but villain could already have the nut flush. I feel like the pot is too big to fold, considering I have the flush redraw and there's a decent chance I'm still ahead. However, villain could have Ax so I'd be drawing dead. So I have trouble seeing how to fold, but at the same time calling seems like I'm getting way too much committed with just an overpair. This leads me to believe I did something wrong in getting there.

I don't want this conversation to focus solely on this specific villain, but here's what I know about him. I had only been at the table for about a half hour, but I had already seen villain open raise preflop to $20-25 or so. He had about $900 when I sat down (max buy-in $300), yet he was complaining when I got there about how long it'd been since he flopped a set.

Also, on the very first hand I was there I was dealt AKo. This same villain limped, seat 2 raised to $10, and then I reraised to $30. Both called, villain check-called a 3/4 pot size bet when I flopped the king, and then after check-check turn he tried to bluff the river. I called him and he showed the A which was likely half of the missed nut-flush draw. I don't know if that info helps, but that's about all I had on this particular villain.

Grunch
I going to take a stab at this. OTT, the pot is $450 before villain shoves, and we have $225 behind. We're getting about 3-1 pot odds and our SPR is around 3 (I may be mistaken on that--shooting from the hip). We potentially have 8-10 outs unless he's bluffing with the A.
I want to fold, but we've put in 1/2 our stack and may not be drawing dead.
As played call--Flame on! This situation sucks IMO.

Preflop--I would raise more to $100-110 so that we almost guarantee to get it in. Is a preflop UTG raise to $25 normal in this game?

I could really see him having the A. Since he acts first on the turn, I could see him calling the flop with the intention to rep the flush if it hits on the turn. The A would give him outs if that backfired. Also, if he put me on say exactly JJ, any other broadway would give him the chance to bluff. On the other hand, those might be pretty unorthodox plays for most low-stakes live players, so maybe I'm overthinking all of that.

I don't believe villain was UTG...I think there might have been a limper or two, but I don't recall the exact scenario. That said, a normalish raise there would have been to $10-$15 or so, but for him I think $20-$25ish is normal (based on my very small sample of watching him play). Can I really 3bet to $100-$100 pre? I was kind of surprised that my $75 was called, but perhaps anyone who calls $75 would call $100? Had I done that, would the move be just shove any flop like this?

First of all what you should focus is not on the pot odds after that dudes goes all-in but you should have focused on your flop bet related to the effective stacks (ES). Before betting the flop for $150 you should plan, your have to asked yourself if your hand is strong enough for an all-in bet if villain's doing that. Or, you should have asked yourself if you want to play for stacks if you flop an over pair. If the answer is NO, then don't bet so much on the flop as to become pot committed and be forced to fold in "no good", (-EV), so to speak. Don't put yourself in a situation where no matter what you do on the turn will be -EV like lose/lose situation. This is valid not just in regard to this hand but with all other hands including any overpair and any TPRK type hands.

Disregard all the replies from the "sit-of-the-pants" that advise you to push or shove or to put this dude on this range or that range and convince you to continue based on pot odds alone. Don't create pot odds that will force you to call. Start building the ideal stack-to-pot-ration optimal for over pairs and TPTK type hands if you want to be a winer in cash games. I'm not sure you are following me but this is in essence the hidden secret, so to speak of managing to come out ahead when playing NL cash games. In no-limit live cash games, we win money by doubling up or busting other dudes. All else is trading water in small pots with very little impact. All small pot confrontation will balance out in the long run because we will be playing in situations where either we are 52/48 or 48/52 or somewhere there very close to it.

AT,

Without reads, as played, I'd call... Barely. I really don't think you messed up with your p/f or flop bet sizing. But you're well past the commitment threshold as a result, I think my gut reaction is to say folding is a mistake... Still, let's dive deeper.

I doubt villain called the 3-bet with aces as he'd be more likely to raise this show of strength. You clearly have a hand you're willing to go AI w/. I also doubt the villain called the 3-bet with any AXss b/c you hold the Ks and the Qs hit (VERY IMPORTANT). I really don't think he's calling a $50 reraise with suited spades, as a result. Most 1/2 villains want to get it in with AA preflop, some play it tricky but I think AA is not that likely here. He could have AK of a different suit and be trying to outplay you, he could also have a hand like queens or jacks

I really think the most likely hand here is Q Q which gives you 11 outs (2 kings+9 spades). Getting 3:1 you need 25% equity to win the hand. You have roughly that here. I REALLY doubt you're up against a flush here. I'd call here but not be too happy about it.

Worst case scenario is that you're up against AA with the As in the hand... but that is very unlikely in this case, in my opinion. If he did, why would he push when 2 draws came in? As I said, if I had to guess 1 hand it would be QQ.

I'm pretty sure the villain doesn't have a flush. He raised pf. Most LLSNL won't raise with AJs or worse and call a 3bet.

The decision is actually reasonably close. It is a fold in my mind, but it is close enough that I wouldn't have a strong debate about calling.

I'm not sure what I would do differently here. You get in $150 PF, making your SPR 375:150 --> 2.5:1, which is almost always low enough to get it in with an overpair profitably (depending slightly on opponent reads / table dynamics).

Obviously raising a little more PF would be nice if villain calls, as a $100 raise would leave you with SPR 1.75:1, which makes getting it in even more trivial of a decision. But with KK, you don't want to blow someone off the hand PF either.

As played, I think I go with my hand here, as you are getting 3:1 on this shove. I agree that a flush is hardly in his range with the Ks, Qs out of the deck. And also, if he has the nut flush, I doubt he is shoving into you like this when you have been the aggressor so far. This looks more like a semi-bluff. Assuming he shoves AsAx earlier in the hand, that's unlikely as well. So his range is made up more of AsKx or AsQx IMO along with some QQ and TT. If this is the case, you can't be dead at least, where even if he has a set you have 8 outs. So I definitely call, although it's not a spot we love. I don't think you played it poorly, the cards just set up an awkward spot, but overall I believe this is a profitable line.

I would 3 bet him to 110 pre, I think if you check to him he's betting the flop 100% of the time which is perfect for C/R AI. . I think he's calling a small amount of the time w suited Ax more likely AJo+ 99/TT+. I think he either has AQ/AT/air. After your story about villain w the busted FD. I think he's very capable of bluffing the flush. He's a LAG and if you give him enough rope he will follow suit and hang himself. I would call it off.

In most situations I'd say this has to be strength, and advocate for a hero fold, but this time there's absolutely no way I'm folding. I'm calling here and actually feeling pretty good about it.

If villain has a set, why did he wait for the flush to come in before shoving? I'm not expecting villain to turn over a set if I call (unless maybe it's QQ), but even if he does, we have 10 outs (2 kings, and 8 spades).

If villain has a flush that isn't the nut flush, we have 7 outs...but is he really putting in $75 preflop with that kind of hand? I don't expect to be shown that either.

How can villain have the nut flush here? Obviously it's very possible for him to have the A, but the K, Q, and T are either on the board or in our hand. Do you think this villain would call our 3bet for 1/9 of the effective stacks with AJ or a worse suited ace?

Personally I think so much of the effective stacks went in preflop and on the flop that if we are somehow beat here we have to pay the man, especially since we have a redraw against most hands. We know he can bluff with just the naked A (given the read from earlier), so if he's semi-bluffing with the nut flush draw (even if he also has a pair) we're ahead right now. (Could he also be turning JJ with the J into a bluff? If so, we are crushing that hand.) I would call and live with any result.

(But I also probably would have 3bet more preflop, like 95-100.)

results?

get it in, if villan had a monster he would most likley go for a CRAI.

After saying something outloud wondering whether he had QQ, I ended up calling. I flipped my hand over, which I often do when I have a hand that I'm not embarrassed about. The river brought me a 3rd king. Villain kind of stared at the board for a minute without showing his hand as he mumbled about, "You knew you were beat and you called." He then mucked without showing.

I tend to think that he would have showed if he had a set, but who knows. Although I would have liked to have seen his hand, I wouldn't want to lose a $900 pot by prodding him into showing and discovering that he misread his hand and had the winner.

If he had the set I'm pretty sure you were getting proper odds to call. 9 flush cards+2 kings+you can effectively eliminate all your outs from his range=nail biter call. REally, there's an argument to be made for either side... Sitting behind my computer screen I say good call, tho.

i would get it in TWICE!

"225 big blinds" is misleading, when opening raises are 12.5x and 3-bets are 37.5 bb. if he doesn't suck his range has to be Axss, QQ+, and sets, of which you don't have much equity at all, but it is 1/2 after all and people do suck, so idk what to tell you, other than I only play 1/2 to screw around.

I'm curious as to how you would continue how to play this hand AT?

haven't read anything but OP

first of all 450 is not deep when 75 goes in preflop. you should have a sense of what kind of hand this could be since it can't possibly be a standard open size. second go easier on the flop. potting it makes it virtually impossible for him to peel light or bluff you.

generally facing these kinds of 'strong' moves you're not facing the nuts, though a better non-nutted hand isn't impossible. if that is the case, you should always have the required 25%.

I think the presence of the rake makes this an even stronger statement because in 52/48 situations I believe we lose money in the long run due to the rake. My perspective is you need to build a favorable table image while trading water as well. In order to get stacks you need people to give you action.

Curious as to what your thoughts are on building image?