This is a hand played in a $1/2/3 game at M8trix Casino last night. Effective stack is $325 and had the table covered. I had been card dead for the night except the last 10 minutes so my image was probably 10/10/5 at this point.

We were 9-handed and the opposite side of the table was the splashy side. In this hand that side of the table was the BTN-UTG. They were the side of the table that would call down or bet any board, overcards or draws. They'd go to showdown heads-up in a $150 pot with Q8 suited and take pots from each other with a pair of 8s on the river. My side was definitely tighter (OMC two to my right, super TAGs on either side of me).

UTG opened for $15 and it folds to Hero with A J. I raise to $45.

Middle blind and UTG calls. Pot: $135

Flop: J 8 8

SB checks, BB leads for $30. At this point the lead here was super fishy. He had done this a few times to try and take down pots and it worked when my side of the table was in the blinds with nothing strong. Hero raises by sliding out a barrel of $5s. Dealer counts out $105. Whoops stacks were not right, oh well.

Folds to the BB who thinks for about a minute before jamming for his remaining $250. Pot: $520

Hero?

Hero was getting about 4.5:1. I put him on a range of 22-77, 99+, Q9+, and any jack except J8. I suck at equity calculations so I just did an estimation of how many hands I beat and how many I'd lose to. I didn't feel like he'd play an 8, pocket jacks or even AA/KK that aggressively, so with that jam I felt like I was even more ahead than if he had just flatted. AJ with a backdoor flush draw felt like a premium in the moment. Raising with a premium when faced with a donk lead on a board where I should have more nuts than him seemed like the right thing to do. This was the biggest pot of the night at the table so I took a couple of minutes to think it through.

A few edits I can't make:

I covered the table.
Middle blind and small blind are the same.
I was in UTG+2

Fold pf

Would prefer to raise overpairs so he has more Jx combos.

In general I'd just call donk bets, without more information ... SB/BB have way more 8x esp. if they are calling wide pre. ... maybe have roughly the same number of JJ too. If you assume they donk a lot and so need to raise a wider range I don't think the size should be so big, I would be betting small on J88r anyway if checked to (would probably go 60-75).

Assuming he leads and then shoves 22 seems like a weird assumption. For me T9 seems like the obvious non-value combo. and maybe 97 next, 99 would not be there as a bluff or for "value".

Would be huge info. to know what kind of hands you'd seen him donk with, on what kinds of boards. Also how he reacted to calls/raises.


I would guess you are roughly in the middle of your range here, and villains are maybe more likely to assume you have QQ+ (if they are paying attention).

ATC. The one time he showed when he donk lead into a TAG PFR, he got called on a 2 broadway board. He CC the turn and river and showed up with bottom pair. He was the type of player to do the same with ATo on a broadway-low-low 2flush flop and river a ten to win the hand.

IME, donk bets at LLSNL are one of the scenarios where you can just toss aside most theory. In most other parts of the game, you can just fall back on theory and be more or less ok until you have more info.

Donk bets at LLSNL end up being pretty specific for most villains. I.E. they like to donk with the same type of hands such as:

- donks with 2nd pair or worse
- donks with monsters hands only
- donks with TP weak/medium kicker
- donks ATC when they think the flop is "good" to donk (and then you have to figure out what flops they like)

Most players who donk at LLSNL almost never do anything to balance their donks and once you figure it out, its one of the easiest scenarios to be in at LLSNL.

From one of your other posts, it sounds like he's the ATC type. So, I'd just call since you have TPTK. If you raise, you'll blow him off his random ATC donks that he might continue with or c/c if he happens to have Jx or pair up on turn. And obviously if he does have 8x, he's not folding. So not a lot of good comes from raising here.

If you have AA/KK/QQ, a raise might be ok occasionally for his Jx hands.

But, it wouldn't surprise me if he never donks with a J or 8.

Donk leads tend to be weak made hands, especially at that small sizing, im calling and letting him continue betting into me. As played, easy call.

In supersystem, doyle recommended donking out hands like sets on dry boards into good players because they will put you on a weak made hand and bluff raise you. Theres a certain group of older regs who learned this move from SS and will stack you in spots like this, but oh well.

Yep. I’m in the same boat in regards to donk leads and their thinking. I had been studying this spot and donk leading earlier in the day. JLittle has a similar example on J66 and how to handle a donk lead. It’s a raise in most scenarios unless you know he is likely to have the nuts. I was pretty confident that this player would not play an 8 this way.

I like your play, and a donk lead from a fish here is usually just a weak and vulnerable made hand. Snap call the shove. A player like this doesnt typically lead out with trips.

This kid was maybe in 3rd grade during the boom. I'd be surprised if he had ever heard of SS or SS2 (Doyle gave me a signed copy for my bday of SS2 so that book has a special place in my heart). I would have snap-folded if this was the OMC who was sitting to my right and he sigh-shoved.