Hey LLSNL. First strat post.

Parx 1/2 on a Sunday afternoon.

My image is reasonably tight. I raise over 1 ep limper in mp to $12 with 99. Sb is only caller. Villain is station, tho I haven't seen him call a big bet on later streets.

Flop: Jc 8h 4c [$29]
He checks, I bet $15, he calls

Turn: 2h [$59]
He checks, I bet $25, he calls

River: Td [$109]
He checks.

Hero's play?

Obvious note: my turn sizing is too small considering the texture.

Thanks in advance

Did he check?

Apologies. Yes, villain checks river.

His range seems capped at one pair or possible FD. If he had a pair and FD like 78cc he might call a small v bet. But I think he mucks most busted draws. TP meh kicker seems likely obv. If he called 2 streets w/ Jx he's not folding to anything but a bomb on the river and turning our hand into a bluff here is prob less than profitable on balance unless we think we are getting him off a really weak J that picked up a bd FD ott or a rivered T.

I value bet pretty thinly and against some vs who draw a lot I'll bet small for value but in this spot I check it back a lot.

As to whether turning our hand into a bluff will even work we would need stack sizes but since you said he's a station I prob just make a very small value bet.

$40 on the turn.

I check back this river. The T could easily have hit him, and even when it doesn't it makes him less likely to pay off with weaker hands than yours. There's also the possibility you have been value-towning yourself the entire way against Jx. And busted unpaired clubs always fold.

Thanks for the input.

I checked back and villain won with 9Thh.

In this particular situation, my turn sizing wouldn't have mattered since he's not folding his combo draw. However the sizing is still a mistake. But after the hand I'm of course left thinking if he has few enough callable hands to make a merged river bet the right play.

With all of the missed draws, does that make an argument for or against a river bet?

I'd probably bet 20 on the flop; then check turn and check river.

I think a turn check or bet is fine but if you do bet, bet more (2/3) of the pot. If you are putting him on a draw, make him pay. If you think Jx is more likely, check behind.

One of my least fav river cards as any annoying SD now has second pair.

Turn I go $30-35, river check