Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
JdTd is a perfect bluffing hand, far far better than this hand. If we get raised, we're happy to fold. We have outs to the nuts, and a bunch of cards (diamonds) would allow us to barrel.
How can you justify the idea that JdTd is a good c-bet and JcTc is not?
JcTc always has MUCH more hand equity on the flop than JdTd. You cannot say that c-betting JdTd is +EV but doing so with JcTc isn't great... of course it's great. If JdTd is a profitable c-bet, then JcTc will be substantially better - you already have a monster draw on the flop, and you can also barrel some turn cards... yet you want to check with JcTc and c-bet with JdTd with the plan to barrel turn 20% of the time you turn a FD?
I'm not sure that makes sense.
First, I would not c-bet this flop with JdTd. That's spew.
Second, barreling turns with JdTd is even worse spew. You don't have enough hand equity - people aren't folding enough because they're peeling with clubs, OESDs, pairs+, etc. Further, seemingly good barreling cards will hit ranges a bit too often to barrel without better hand equity. For example, villains will call A9s on the flop with the OESD. You might think a turn A is a good barreling card... but it gives villain a top pair they're never folding. Same is true for other over cards. You also can't feel great about barreling pairing cards 8d and 7d. That doesn't mean barreling is always bad... but like I said, we need more hand equity to take that kind of line - of course, JcTc has that hand equity. JdTd does not.
With JdTd, the 9c is not clean. Jc and Tc are worthless. Semi-bluffing two streets on boards where villains don't fold often enough with a hand that has so little hand equity that you basically have 3 clean outs isn't going to be profitable.
With JcTc, getting people to fold Ax, Kx, Qx, 22, 33, etc., is a good outcome. For sure, you can achieve the same outcome with JdTd. But you can NOT rely simply on getting folds when you c-bet because people aren't folding enough on this texture. A c-bet with a low equity hand is -EV. With JcTc, you want whatever folds you can get (and actually you will get a few more than with JdTd, because you block flush draws when you hold two clubs), and that provides some of your profit. When you get called, you always have excellent equity except in the rare circumstance someone has a better flush draw. That said, we still have 31% equity vs AcQc. Only a hand that also blocks our other outs - like Ac9c - is big trouble for us, and we have around 18% equity vs. that hand. But against many strong hands, we're doing great... we have 45% equity vs. two pair 87, 46% vs. 99, etc. With JcTc, the combination of hand equity and fold equity (value and semi-bluff equity) makes the flop a profitable c-bet.
I could see an argument for checking with JcTc because our fold equity is low... but I think our hand equity is so great that it's a c-bet for sure.
OP, I spent more time responding to the c-bet discussion than looking at your hand... pretty confident I would call the raise. I think you have almost no fold equity with a 3-bet. Call the raise, getting 2.4:1 is quite good, there's nearly 4x the call size left in stacks; play the turn in position, let's see what happens.