1/2 NL

V1 [SB ~$375] TAG & knows my play. Sometimes suffers from FPS. He can c/r flops with good draws. He'll go for c/r with flopped bottom set. He'll bet out on the flop with top set, or he'll overbet the pot with bottom set. Or, he'll bet the pot with air vs. 2 opponents when he knows them & thinks the flop didn't hit them.

V2 [BB ~$275] ABC player close to nittish.

Hero: [~$280] TAG. Doesn't limp unless in late position behind several limpers with a drawing hand. Usually bets the same amount, 1st in, with whatever hand he is playing.

Folded to me in the Steal seat & I o/r to $13 with JT & only the blinds call.

Flop [$35 raked]: 876

They both check to me. My play here should be?

bet 25.

bet 20-30

checking would be awful.

It's not a semi bluff it's a cbet. What's more you don't necessarily want them to fold so if they judge it as a cbet your happy with them to continue and you can put pressure on later in the hand knowing you have plenty of cards to hit that could win you a big pot. Always a bet here.

i actually think we want them to fold. we have a monster draw, but at the end of the day, we only have J high. our hand is vulnerable to a lot of different cards. and half the time we're stuck triple barreling with J high

i size bigger here specifically because i dont want FDs to continue as the only FDs that continue probably have us crushed and we're stuck looking for 10 outs.

any time i can take down a pot with J high, i'm usually happy.

Bet $25. I don't mind if they call or fold.

don't get me wrong, i dont mind if they call, but a fold is preferable IMO because i dont usually feel like unloading the clip but sometimes you have to.

We want them to fold the turn when there's more money in the pot and they realise we are confident but in reality we only have Jack high. Although if they do fold the flop your never going to be too disappointed. It's a good flop for out hand and I'd prefer to get more money in the middle and then hit and scoop or take a decent pot with jack high. Although It's not always that simple.

I would bet close to standard for my cbet somewhere between 19-26. looking to call c/r or reraise a small % as we're live vs anything, nearing the top of cbet range, and have position w a fair amount behind still

I don't mind a call on this board, the typical garbage from a 200 player is not going to play well vs our planned continued aggression. Let them call, more money for us in a high return situation.


This hand to me is in line w having 86 or something on this board, I'd probably rather have our hand then 99 or AA on this board and play it similarly to all of the above. Obviously taking the context of the board run out into consideration, as we also would w the above hands.

So far, standard cbet.

Well, like everyone else I bet. The issue here is the coordinated flop. I wanted to make sure they were paying to draw. However, there's the issue that all cards on the flop are making sets for hands that would set-mine with.

So, with me holding JT

Flop ($35 raked) 876

I decided to bet $24. The max rake is $6 & there's another $2 coming off, so I'm betting 24 to win 22 + the pot if I get one caller. If the SB calls, the BB would then of course be getting right odds to call on most draws. If I bet too much & they have slim draws, I get no more money in the pot.

If I take it down ott, I'd like the pot to be as far as possible above the $60 line where the last $1 is raked off.

However, now the SB c/r to $90 total & the BB folds, so there's $158 [raked] in the pot & it's $66 to me. I'm getting ~2.4:1 on a 3.16:1 draw, since I now have to consider a set/over-pair his most likely hand.
If it's a set, he has re-draws going to the river if the turn makes my hand.

If I call, there is no way this guy will let me see the river card for a reasonable price.

I've put in $37 so far, so I've got ~$243 left & he's got me covered. If I go all-in here, hoping he puts me on a set, he'll have to call $177.

That will make the total in the pot $578. 243/578 = 42% of the money is my all-in bet.

My equity vs. an over-pair [with no club] is 47.3%. vs. 1 club it's 42.8%
Then there's the question of whether he has a set.

Pretty slim overlay.... I wouldn't think I have much of any fold equity after he c/r to $90, so, is now the time to semi-bluff?

If you were Villain with AA, bottom set, or two pair, could you fold after having put $103 in the pot already?

Or, is calling & resigning myself to the fact that I'll have to fold to his pot size+ bet on the turn the best play?

It's all math, which you've done some of. V should not have AA (or KK). As V, I'd never fold bottom set, two pair, a straight -- or the nut flush draw.

I'm always mystified by people who are sure of what do but can't express any reason why.

I think the flop is a very obvious check based on:
1. If we get called we have no idea whether calling hands are ahead or behind
2. If we get raised we have no idea whether raising hands are ahead or behind
3. Our hand isn't strong enough to value-bet
4. We have no reason to expect folds

OP, I think it's really important for you to be able to list:

1. What hands you think are in the Villain's range?
2. What better hands do you think get folded to your bet? And specifically what better hands are folding on the flop that wouldn't fold later in the hand?
3. What hands do you think that the Villain check-raises?

I think it's a really bad idea to open light based on being in position and then post-flop totally throw away your positional advantage.

As played we have 3 outs to the nuts, no idea what other cards are going to help us, so I think it's a clear shove or fold spot. If we call we'll be guessing just like we always are after we bet.

I don't get it. You think paying to draw is bad. We were not going to have to pay to draw. But you wanted to play at least 25. Someone else wants you to pay 90. If you shove you're paying your whole stack.

^ lol @ flopping a gs straight flush draw and checking behind otf advice. I can understand checking behind the NFD on this board fearing a c/r but not with JTcc.

You want to build the pot, obv cbet is obv.

0 fold equity to the c/r so a call is the best play, you can't fold just yet. V has 2p+ almost always.

Fold to any big bet OTT.

pretty much Never checking this flop smh

You can't possibly check behind this flop. It serves both as a bluff and for value.

If we fold out whiffed Broadway hands, that is fantastic.
If we fold out low PP or silly hands like A6, that is fantastic.
If we get other naked SD hands to call, that is fantastic.

If worse hands fold, no big deal, we weren't going to get value on later streets. If better hands call, no big deal, then the turn is where we use position. There are many turn cards where we can either barrel off a better hand or check behind and draw for free.

Obvious bet on the flop is obvious. We can fold plenty of hands (a-high, k-high, q-high) that are technically ahead of us. We have mad outs, but they're all obvious outs. This is a big pot hand, betting in position now is the only way to build a big pot and potentially play for stacks later.

I'm not folding to this c/r. Raise all in if you think there's some fold equity. And there should be some fold equity... his range should be wider than just sets and made straights here. If you think he's fully pot-committed, then draw for relatively cheap.

Ok. So this pretty much all came down to the Vil type, we say that Vil knows your play, you play right and he likes to bet out monsters, and he checked.

With all this info I'm jamming. He didn't play the nuts this way on that draw heavy of a board based on his description and therefore there's no hand he can snap here. He conversly cannot rule out a nutted hand in our range. We should have fold equity, even though you mention that you don't think there's much for our raise size. I disagree and think there is, or else we should fold. I ran a couple calcs of our hand vs set, flopped straights AA, 99 and stuff. We're always at least 33‰ equity which is more than enough of a back up for me in case he decides to hero call. I think we see him bluff or hero fold though enough to follow through on the play.

Do we really see him calling w 76 here? Even 54 is a difficult call vs our range. This is part of the reason he should never be checking that type of hand, but people can't resist sometimes, now he's given us the chance to peel him off hands w lots of equity.

I don't hate a fold here; but I would hate a flat. Our hand had reduced implied odds bc the draw is obvious, and as you said he auto barrels us off on blanks which dramatically decreases any equity we ever had in the hand as we only see one card instead of the full run out and encourage him to follow up correctly on his c/r w the weaker part of his range that we once had hope of folding out.

For me the play of this hand ends otf.

How´s my range for Villian? If we shove, what hands do we expect him to fold?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.000 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 7c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.074% 57.67% 00.41% 29116 205.50 { JJ-66, AcQc, Ac9c, A8s, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, Kc9c, Qc9c, T8s, 98s, 76s, T9o }
Hand 1: 41.926% 41.52% 00.41% 20963 205.50 { JcTc }


---

47,520 games 0.000 secs 9,504,000 games/sec

I'm a bit surprised at the x/r, there are no made hands that want to let another card come for free. V really counted on your cbet, and you not having a piece.

I call. There are a lot of cards OTT that catch up to 2pr+, and a handful that put you ahead of another drawing hand.

Yes, we're almost always going to call with stack sizes. Close enough if we're in the worst shape. Worth it if he's chasing/bluffing.

You have ~12 discounted outs, imo.

This means if you call now, miss ott and if you expect V to shove the turn, you'll be getting 2.2:1 to see the river.

I think the price is too high to call here and call otr.

Can you narrow V's range a bit more? Is he ever taking this line with a naked NFD?

Seems like a bad spot.

Fold > shove >> call.

I think you're totally wrong. But if you're right, that means the person building the pot with you is the one who is wrong. Do you think people are calling your bet on the flop or check-raising with hands that they would fold if they could see your cards? Do you think they're making a mistake against your jack-high hand?

If they're not making a mistake building a pot, you definitely are. That's why I think the flop is a very obvious check. At least the Hero has figured out that he's bluffing, not value-betting trying to build a pot.

Or in other words if you're at a poker game do you find it difficult to play against people who want to build huge pots with jack-high and 3 outs to the nuts?

Why doesn't someone list the hands that check-raise this flop that are going to be really upset to see you turn over a hand as strong as jack-high?

According to any objective criteria this is a poor board to continuation bet: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...63&postcount=1

If we have 22/AK we have a perfect hand to bluff. If we have T9 we have a perfect hand to value-bet. As is we have a medium strength hand that would love to see a free turn.

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that if you have no idea why you're betting that betting is a very bad idea.

It's interesting the wording of this post. Even T9, which flopped the nuts has 18 (board pairs, 9s, Ts, and any flush card) cards out of 47 that make it not the nuts ott. So therefore close to 72‰ of board run outs make the nuts not the nuts on this board.

I'm curious which hands you would cbet on this board, or similar ones with initiaive and position vs limpers. Moreover do you shut down on every such board 3 way in such a spot, and do you think that actually is profitable?

We can play semantic games all day calling our hand 'jack high' but the reality is that two overs with a flush and a straight draw stack up handily against any hand that our opponent can possibly turn over, and especially vs our opponents range. What would you say if he had 44, or K7hh, or QQ on this board. Should we just let it run or should we apply pressure?

If you have QQ on this board are you happily excepting 3 streets of pressure?

I'm not trying to he condescending, but I have a very strong point of view that's contrary. This cbet is at the very worst a high value merge, I would even argue that vs a 200 player's calling vs folding range a cbet w A4s backdoor flush might be profitable 3 way w initiative and position

I'm just gonna post and hope this is received well, or even torn to shreds if I'm leaking. Do we have a cbet range at all on boards like this if the specific hand in question is not one?

List of hands that mistakenly c/r against our J high could be overpairs, all 2 pair combos, possibly bottom set or bottom straight, likely close to half of the Vils c/r range, or else list a hand for every one mentioned that he definitely c/r calls. None of these hands jump for joy when we 3 bet flop, or take an incredible sigh of relief when they hero call our all in and we turn over our hand. This is leaving out any failed bluffs that a 200 player might ever make.

We are betting for value and as a semi-bluff. It is an almost mandatory c-bet. Checking here is awful. Would you check with an over-pair? Set? Straight? Two pair?

I get what you mean about wanting to see a free turn, but I want to build a pot here and taking it down now would be fine.

If you're betting for value you want to have well over 50% equity against the hands that are calling. 1. What do you think is the Villain's calling range so that you think we're significantly ahead? 2. What better hands do you think fold to a flop bet that wouldn't fold later in the hand?

I'd be betting if I had a reason, which means having a good answer to those two questions. Betting for value and as a bluff is exactly the same as betting for no reason at all. It's the exact same leak that most of the threads here have taking a medium strength hand and trying to build a huge pot with it.

When is the last time you went home with a losing session saying "the Villains were tough tonight they were building huge pots with jack high"?

We've had this discussion before. If you're bluffing in this spot, with hands like this, your range is way too bluff-heavy and you're making your calling-station Villains into good poker players.

If we're not happily getting it in after this check-raise we might as well have 72o, because we've totally wasted our equity since we decided to bet without having a reason to bet.