Already getting the odds we need to chase, so I'd just call. I'd jam if I hit my straight. Weirder spot if flush comes in with just over a PSB left, but I guess I still jam (although we do run into the few air hands that could be barrelling that end up getting there). Maybe I'm overestimating the times an older white guy 3bets from MP preflop and barrels air with two overs.

GbutIdont'thinksoG

Yeah if dude is not releasing an Overpair c/rai is lighting money in fire but if he does barrel turn or folds a small Overpair c/rai is prob best.

Me neither

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Why is this lol?

That's how a lot of people play it - a check/raise on the turn tends to be more made/nutted hands vs. check/raising on cheaper streets, which in a lot of cases is an attempt to freeze the opponent and get a free card. Hence, why I recommended (assuming villain is capable of double-barreling A-high) CRAI turn. It looks a lot stronger.

Why do we assume the V sees Hero as spewy?

In HH1, the table never saw Hero's cards, they just saw him make a big raise OTT when a flush card hit.

In HH2, the table saw Hero shove on the flop without a made hand, but it was a monster FD + OESD. The shove wasn't even that big of an overbet, either - the pot was at $200 (counting my "call" of V's bet before I raise), and the raise was $300 more. Stack sizes pretty much wouldn't allow me to raise any other amount.

Finally, I would actually be very surprised if V remembered the hand with Hero in the V-specific HH. It was months ago, one of my first sessions in this poker room, and I don't believe most players in the room keep developed reads across sessions as much as I do. I posted the hand more to show that V is capable of 3! over a flop raise if he feels his hand is ahead - part of the reason I didn't c/r the flop here.

^^you called an EP raise with K9s vs this exact raise, many will see that as spewy.

Fair play on the 1st hand not going to SD though.

What does everyone think of leading the turn for around $120? That might freeze villain into just calling with his one-pair hands and will make him fold his AK/AQ hands, while giving ourselves a cheap river.

Sucks if we get raised, tho.

Fair enough - again, I don't want to spend too much time on the V specific HH, but I was on the button and there were multiple callers in between me and V. With the best absolute and best relative position on the PFR, and a decent multiway hand, I don't think that call is spewy.

Not a fan. If we check and villain checks back, we can bet river with impunity. If we bet and get a fold, that's fine but we've put $$$ at risk that we didn't have to. Also like you pointed out, we may have to fold if raised.

If we check and villain bets, we'll get just about the right price to call even if he pots it.

Our value range is very narrow if we take a check/call/donk turn line. We don't rep much. Think of it this way: why would we donk the turn with a set if we know either A) he's got AK and will fold but will have bet again if checked to, or B) He'll bet his overpairs for value 100%?

Meant "underestimate" but I think we're on the same page...

GcluelessNLnoobG

Well played so far (despite openning utg+1 with sc). Villain should have bet more on the turn. I agree that QQ+ is the most likely holding, with AKdd/AQdd a possibility. I think you're too deep to crai. More than justified to call with 15 outs, probably 13-14 real outs if you give him AKs/AQs.

I think the real question is what's your river plan? If you hit, I'd plan to make a sizeable river bet, especially if you think villain won't dump his overpair. Will you check-fold if you miss? I probably would unless I get some kind of read.

c/c turn.

Lead $250 if you bink; lead $275 if the river is a jack.

c/f on anything else. I think V has exactly AA/KK/QQ.

I think based on villans sizing we can just check call and decide river. His bet seems more value than bluff. Donk betting turn I think is interesting. What hands would villain raise our donk bet with. I think a donk bet and river shove could be an interesting line.

In the realm of sanity I think check calling is best. It's just hard to get paid when we make the 1 liner to the straight. As gg pointed out we are getting a pretty good price.

Bet $200 on turn, and just shove($500ish) the river in the dark.

You'll hit some of the time and he has a decision, you'll miss some of the time and he has a decision, either way you put the pressure on him to make a mistake

Are you ever doing this with a set?

Hero's thought process:

We are getting a good price to draw, but if we c/c and hit the river, we probably can't stack V given sizes. I also worried that overpairs might actually fold if one of the obvious or scary draws comes in (say a diamond or a 7).

Hero also briefly considered a CRAI, but thought we were too deep, and that the line would look so bluffy/drawy that we would get snapped by an overpair and would have to ride the variance train. Thus I wanted to raise an amount that gave some FE, but looked like a value line.

Hero wanted to take control of the hand now and give himself at least some chance to win UI. I also still thought there was at least some of V's range that was AK/AQ (with or without diamonds), against which raising now is highly beneficial as he can't call those without diamonds, and he may not even call with diamonds if we raise enough.

Hero c/r to $275.

Hero checks, V bets $100, Hero thinks for 15-20 seconds and raises to $275.

V thinks for about the same amount of time and calls.

River ($740) 8

Hero? about 440 remaining, EZ shove?

Yeah, I shove here because of your raise action OTT. You've established an expectation of getting it in. If you c/c the turn, I'd prefer a CRAI here.

EZ shovz. Pretty good turn sizing after you decided to c/r.

Absolutely

To each his own but I would rather have as much info before I cram a river rather than shooting blind.

You are basically 90/10 versus his range. Whatever gets the money in the pot.. and assuming V will never v-bet worse than a flush here go ahead and shove and pray he bluff catches some percentage of the time greater than 10% - which he probably will if he is tag/competent as described.

Really not a fan of your sizing. The price you are giving villain is way too good. He never folds a better flush draw which we desperately want. If we x raise which I don't hate by any means because it's a strong line i think we need to make it pot sized.

As played shoving is likely best.

If V is on a pure flush draw, he would be calling $175 to win $565. He would not be getting the > 4:1 odds he needs just to draw to a flush. (That's from V's mind, in reality, if he holds diamonds his odds are even worse because I hold two, so I know I'm giving him even worse odds for a pure diamond draw)

A pot sized raised on the turn would be to $490, leaving about $200 for the river in a pot well over $1000. That seems ultra awkward. If we were considering that we should just shove the turn--which I don't like for the reasons I and others gave.