That is exactly why I didn't raise the turn. I thought if I did, Villain would put me on a hand almost exactly like what I have. Although one of the things that caused me trouble on the river was I'm not sure what Villain is putting me on now. I feel confident that he has me on a weak range, but I don't know exactly how weak he thinks my range is.

EDIT: It's possible "leveling war" is the wrong term for why I think this spot is interesting. Like I said, I think Villain is putting me on a weak range here. I think it's quite likely that when he makes this bet, he thinks he is bluffing. The question, I guess, is, what range of hands might Villain be showing up with after the turn action that he then feels he needs to bluff with on the river?

Very interesting hand. In my previous post I was talking about calling rivers but I didn’t factor into the equation villain “liking the flop” also includes combos like J7, T7, 75, 74.

I think you can credibly rep the A-hi flush draw with a shove. I’d certainly be shoving AX on the river praying for a hero call. Problem now is we don’t want the hero call. You said the villain probably views you as a nit so I think he’s capable of laying down a 7 to your $685 shove over $200. Announce “all in” and very nice hand.

this thread sucks, we have nut no pair, which i love calling down with from time to time, but this is just ******ed to expect us to call here, you don't have to win every single pot, just let it go on the turn, if not letting it go, then call is reasonable on the river, raise might be better, but I don't think i'm going to give up so easily after calling the turn, that's why it should be an easy fold on the turn, this is a fairly meaningless hand in the grand scheme of things until we called the turn

if you are calling the turn it has to be for value because our draw isn't very strong after the board pairing card, possibly the Q and K are live giving us between 14 and 15 clean outs on average, only way you can call the turn is to play for value on the river, so I suppose this can be a good call, but you can't expect us to know every nuance of this hand and your reads

i think raising the turn is better than just calling, if calling definitely not just giving up on the river, not sure if calling or raising is better but definitely not a good spot for a fold imo

Turn decision is clearly based on opponent read and action, including the 70+% PSB with a field showing no interest in the pot.

Very unlikely he has an over pair/9X/2pr/sets as he probably bets those on the flop with only player left to act after two checks. Given the “interest” read on flop, spades like T8/87/86/76/75 are a good part of his range, imho.

Hero is behind a few of those combos but has outs. Even if we exclude a couple of spades, 13 outs require just under 30% equity to call profitably. Have that as 90/(215+90) = 29.5%. Of course, Hero may be ahead, i.e. better draw.

Given Hero line, raising reps little to a thinking villain. I’d call.

Note: Without the reads, I’d fold, but would have bet flop.

Just saw the river … If you think the opponent is betting the flop with AXss, then raise river. If not, fold.

You give a lot of advice ITF. Most of it is a recipe for torching money at 2/5 and below. This, however, is worse than normal. I agree turn is a fold, but op is a long tenured, respected poster and saying s_hit like this just makes you look like a tool. Like, you can't tell by the way op breaks down the hand and his thought process that he's a better player than 95% of the mouth breathers that frequent these stakes? Also you have no clue when this hand went down. Op may have had some leaks then but has what it takes to be a crusher now, but nah, just give up cuz purple doesn't like your line.

There should be feedback available on every poster ITF left by fellow posters. That way new comers would know who to ignore.

You can disagree with the line. (The possibility of overcalls from a 7/pair/Axss & once in a blue moon c/r push turn to a fold for me.) But even w/ no prior info about Vernon, it should be obvious from his posts that he's capable of presenting a coherent thought process about a hand and isn't some random drooler.

If you want to get super fancy about a hand just 3b pre or bet flop. Turn call and river whatever is trying too hard to be cool.

Also in regards to river it's alot easier for him to have something that it is for you. Only possibility to me is shoving but won't work the time he has 9x and sets. And if he's good enough it won't work for the 7x either

Pre seems fine. I 3b a lot here, but that could be wrong.

I prefer betting the flop. Love winning with king high and we fear so little. Can also win a nice size pot for a one pair hand if we bink that way.

AP float turn seems good. His bet should be heavily weighted toward fos.

Seems like the nut hero call card on the river. AP I'm usually calling or asking myself what was I thinking ott.

Fold turn. Fold river.
This play might be ok heads up but there are too many other random people in the hand that can mess this up.

It's just a super high variance line to flat the turn with KQs for basically a meaningless reward. There are still 2 to act.

But you can assume he NEVER has a 9 here after not c-betting the flop 3 way, so it's not terrible to call but it takes a lot of bankroll and we should never give up the river imo.

We probably should raise the river as played, we are fairly consistent with 9x in this spot, I just don't think he could ever have anything that can call, so yes, this is a nice play if you shoved the river and I like the line if you shoved.

Folding turn is better imo, we took a value line pre and OTF and there isn't anything wrong with a fold

GL

How can villain never have 9x cause according you to he should cbet, but we are fairly consistent with 9x after also not cbetting?

If you don't know that this is a mandatory 3bet pre then you haven't been studying poker in 2018. This hand is a disaster all around. Flop is a bet, turn probably a fold. River definitely a fold.

+1

agree pre is probably a 3 bet given CO read. turn is a fold for me, raise is also okay, calling is worst option imo

pause a couple seconds and fold river

true

i just don't think he ever checks the 9 high flop with a 9, maybe we don't either

honestly i'm just never giving up after calling the turn to this sizing so it's really just a matter of whether or not river is a shove or call...I'm torn between the 2, but then again, he probably hit the ace on the river and might not fold

too high variance

oh yea, fold turn

So before I post results, I guess I want to zero in on one question that, in-game, I thought made the difference between calling and shoving.

First off, I ruled out folding the river because I figured calling was better than folding. For whatever reason, I just didn't think he would bet Ax at this sizing. Like I said, I expect that Villain puts me on a weak range and I assume he thinks I am going to fold to this bet. If he had an ace, I thought he would either bet smaller or check (if he thought I'd bluff at this pot).

So hands that make sense and that I beat include hands like 65, 86, T8, and possibly other hands like JT or 53. That's at least 3 combos, maybe 5. In addition, there's also a chance Villain has other busted open-enders that aren't also spade draws. So I thought I beat enough air here that it's very hard for Villain to have enough combos of "bluffs with the best hand" that I should fold instead of calling.

That doesn't mean that shoving isn't better than calling, though, right? But for a shove to make sense as the best play here, Villain has to both have been double-barreling with a bunch of hands that beat me, and then fold those hands. For those of you who think Villain would fold 7x to a shove...do you think he would bet with those 7x hands? What do you think my range looks like to a thinking player, and in light of that does it make sense to use 7x as a bluff or to play for showdown value?

EDIT: I know some of you have said you think he would bet and then hero-call a shove with 7x, which did occur to me in-game as well as a possibility.

I don't know how nitty he perceives you to be but your turn call range is going to have some 88 and possibly even TT that didn't 3bet pre or flop because of how multiway and wanting to see the flop 'check-to-the-raiser' turn actions.

I don't think he puts TT in my range, but good point about 88. He may also assume I have some 7x in my range and could think that betting 7x could take me off a chop.

Tough and interesting question. A lot of variables. Guaranteed in game I just call because working out how frequently he plays 7x this way is tough.

Fine ok fine fine, cool nh, I get why you posted it...the lol thinking lag flats ‘speculative hands’ pre and bet bets nearly all of his non-spade straight draw combos so that you can hero down a call w KQss (no need to raise he is unlikely bluffing with better) becasue it’s often enough the best hand - and he’s lol thinking lag enough to bet bet bc you checked flop and quasi-capped. Still though, it’s a highly specialized spot, history, game flow dependent, but more than anything it’s unlikely the best line to take. Would have been cooler if you had KQhh, then I’d heart you and this thread big time.

If you’re looking for an encapsulated opinion post, bet flop for all the good reasons your range has for betting flop. You’re protected by having all the sets and lots of equity. Your betting range is wide-strong, why cap yourself and relive pressure.

My line is flat pre, near pot flop and turn win a ton. AP call for sure.

As for raising river, again, you don’t need to fold out his bluffing-with-better range, for another $500 when you seem convinced he has piles of ‘speculative’ combos that flat 25 pre (my vote he had 53dd and didn’t show) leaving KQ high as a strong bluff catcher, not a rebluff hand. Just too shallow anyway, the guy might bet-tank call some of those hands that you needed him to fold anyway even if he just wants to ‘see-it’, save face, get priced in, and he also still has trips and some boats that took a slow line from the CO at least sometimes.

+1

Amanaplan is smart

i think you have to call here rather than raise, because you can only call for pure value on the turn, i.e., you have to call because you think KQ is good therefore nothing changes on the river, the ace of clubs is the nuts

fold turn, AP call

..raise probably works tho given reads but in a vacuum it's a call

it's actually not terrible play here, KQ should have showdown value vs some opponents getting out of line and weak hands like underpairs that didn't set should be folding a lot, we were actually ahead of his pf raising range considering what his VPIP should be

much more interesting hand than i thought at first

Villain is not the PFR. That's the second time you've made that mistake in this thread.