Quote:
Originally Posted by elcebro
Nailing my main thought - he is playing bet/fold because, if he was playing bet/call he would have bet a bigger, commiting amount, to charge us to outdraw him. Is this a realistic assumtion?
Again, he's your villain, but... no, I think this is unrealistic.
Putting myself in villain's shoes, I could show up with a good PP like JJ or TT quite easily.
Preflop, I 4-bet to isolate the tight 3-bettor (or fold if he 5-bets).
It didn't work and I took the flop 3-handed OOP on a wet board. I'm LAG and everyone is expecting me to cbet for them, so I disappoint them.
Also since I'm LAG I could have flopped a lot of draws here, so I believe opponents who flop well will be scared to check behind and trap me, i.e. if someone has TP+ they will bet it honestly on the flop.
Tighty checks behind and basically tells me his AK missed. You check behind which basically tells me you have nothing.
The turn is a baby card, so it's time to protect what I think is the best hand.
So... now we come to bet sizing. You are focusing on this a lot, thinking that villain didn't bet enough to protect from draws, so he doesn't have a hand to protect, and is just bet-folding. Against your villain maybe that's correct.
But if I'm a thinking villain, I'm not very worried about draws. Consider the preflop action... tighty has 3-bet after I raised and picked up stragglers, and you have cold called him.
Tighty should have big pairs and big aces. You have flatted so you don't have a monster pair, but could have a pp, or possibly some big suited ace yourself, but you are unlikely to have low suited connectors as it appears the pot is headed towards shorthanded and bloated... and SC don't do well there.
So at the turn, what am I worried about? All the flop weakness tells me nobody has flopped a club draw with a big ace. The turn brings a spade, but the only likely draw that adds is if someone has A
K
exactly.
Even if you did somehow end up with suited connectors here, I'm not really worried about you flatting with most of your range. I think since I've shown weakness on the flop you can't expect implied odds... and in fact (being LAG) I might have picked up a flushdraw myself that I'm betting, so a reasonable bet should put a lot of pressure on you, i.e. you can't call with 8
7
hoping to spike a straight and get my stack because you put me on QQQ... your outs aren't clean because I might make a flush. Or I have nothing and you don't get paid off when you hit.
So I make a reasonable bet at the turn... one that is more than enough to get someone off AK or a weak draw, but not so much that I'm committed if I have misread the situation and both opponents go to war.
Tighty folds, confirming my read about AK.
So now I just have to worry about you, and you shove. And after a few moments of replaying everything in my head, you look FOS.
The hands I'm only truly worried about or a couple of oddly played flop sets, or if I'm really having a bad day, a turned set. Other than that, I feel I'm ahead. You're trying to bluff me off my weakness, or you are semibluffing with a draw (nut spade draw mostly) that you know doesn't have the right implied odds. And I'm getting excellent pot odds. So I call. Boom.
But again... that's me. I'm pretty LAG but I wouldn't be 4-betting weak suited aces (burning money in my games) or offsuit-broadway hands. If I had raised one of those hands UTG and got that much action behind, I would have flatted and played ABC postflop in a multiway pot, trying to make a hand and get paid off.
So, as it played out, I would have far fewer complete airballs at the turn than your villain.
Last edited by chalupa; 01-19-2012 at 07:19 PM.