Yeah this smells a ton like flopped 2P or a FD, either of which is unhappy with the T. The bet is so small I think you gotta call, hope V4 calls or folds. Youve got equity vs 2p, and might reach a cheap showdown vs FD, but if V4 raises (even min raises) you should probably be folding, cuz his raise is probably a spazzy gutshot that hit.

That small bet smells like a I have toppest pair/small 2 pair please just call because I’m worried about my hand now.

Is V3 the kind of guy who would turn top pair into a bluff if you called the $88? If so how often? At this point in the hand is V3 playing straightforward for the most part?

I would probably just call again and I'm just trying to hang on to get to showdown. Obviously we offer awesome odds for draws behind us, but I think that's the best of two evils (the other one being putting in much more of our huge stack with a mediocre hand on a meh board).

GcluelessNLnoobG

This smells so much like a FD. Any made hand is not going to want the FD to get there with two villains left in the hand getting odds. Bet 500. If you get called, flip over the ace of hearts and say you need help.

Ten is really a bad card but can't fold for $88. Based on your descriptions V4 keeps V3 from getting too out of line because V4 might come over the top with a decent draw. So I think hero can safely call/fold.

I think gobbledygeek is right about the situation on the turn. Hero doesn't want to give a free card to draws but bloating the pot is likely even worse.

do u think V4 is capable to induce a reraise from you ?
when he raise 88, say u raise to 300, and he ships it in ?
becoz this is what i would do ( if i have trips, top 2 or nut flash) !

the problem is v3 is calling too !


i would raise to 450 ott,
and if V3 calls or V4 and calls ur reraise,
im def check folding on river,

This is exactly why we raise the flop. We are in position against a loose gambly players range that we can charge to draw. It also helps deny equity for the hands behind us. By calling, we are giving our opponents amazing implied odds to stack us with our one pair.

The spot wouldn't be nearly as gross if we forced the donk bettor to effectively play for stacks on the flop. It also has the side benefit of defining the buttons range. If the button flats or shoves on us then we can make the exploitative hero fold since this guy wouldn't continue this deep without a monster. If button flats a raise with worse than our hand, he will likely check it down unimproved since we showed so much strength on the flop. If he jams on us then we know we are dead and can fold losing the minimum.

Taking the flatting line creates a situation where we potentially win the minimum while ahead and lose the maximum when we are behind or get drawn out on.

Now people are advocating raising the turn but they wouldn't raise the flop? Raising the turn pot commits us against the button who can easily have us destroyed.

Its only in hindsight where you know he flatted the $88 is when you say raise turn. Very unrealistic advice because you don't have that information when you are making this decisiononthe turn with the button still left to act.

Part of poker is that as you get closer to show down, you get more information. When I get new information, I change my mind. Assuming the button has us crushed is just MUBS. If the raise comes, I was wrong about the button's strength and it is a fold.

Here's a thought. IMO 80% or more of net winnings come from 20% or less of our contested pots. (Maybe it's even 90-10.) In a situation like this, perhaps we should consider what line gives us the biggest pot if we wind up winning it.

(Or for the more theoretically inclined, what gives us the biggest value of "Pot Size" times "Likelihood of Winning It".) How does this approach fit with what has already been written?

Checking AA in the big blind seems to minimize BOTH the pot size and the chance of us winning it.

Minraise AA in the big blind almost does the same unless someone 3-bets, and if we thereafter 4-bet we might well take it down there, but that can't be optimal, we still have a really small pot with a really high chance of winning it.

Raising to 35 got us four callers, a better pot so far but not that great a chance of winning it. I won't pretend to put numbers on our chance to win it but with Pokerstove one could make a guess if they wanted to.

Raising to, just to pick a number, 65 or 70 gets us about the same pre-flop pot size but if we had two callers instead of four (how to guesstimate that is an art form) surely that's better that having four callers pre with the same pot size, our chance to win anticipating four callers has to be less than anticipating two callers.

Beyond here it seems to require a general read of our table, our Villains and their propensities. Since none of us but OP were actually there, we don't have the benefit of live reads, but in my "out of control" Vegas games, as much as we hate to raise big with AA and blow everyone out, the real money - the "hand of the night" money" - is when two players both try to "go for the gold". It's pretty clear that in this hand we are one of those two players. We don't know if any of the limpers are the other one, but we owe it to ourselves to find out. So if it were me, and I wanted to maximize the chance that this might be the hand of the night, somewhere between 50 and 80 seems to be the bet.

Ideally, we get one or two callers who flop top pair and play back at us when we cbet perhaps with a "25-30% pot" weak lead to induce. Once we get to that point, we can't fold, and if they outflopped us we are going to find out too late to make a different play.

Against one or two callers I am OK with that even though it would suck. But against four callers it is a self-inflicted wound. We all have been sucked out when QJ flops trips against our KK and AA, that can't be helped. And if we are playing too deep to tolerate that long-shot risk then we should be playing in a different game with a different stack size.

But that's just me.

Give me a shot at "hand of the night" when I am ahead pre-flop, I don't ask for more than that.

^ good post on Pareto principle.

Golden post.

Another great advantage to winnowing down your callers with sizable raise is your opponents are more likely to continue with marginal holdings or find a bluff with fewer players taking the flop.

Like a low pocket pair that calls to setmine and gets turned into a bluff. They'll likely immediately give up 3 or 4+ handed.