If this is the same villain who check/called 3 streets against you with KQ, I would never bet any street here, as if he calls you it means he's trying to trap you with a bigger overpair. If he leads out on the turn I might call or I might fold based on sizing (and also based on what the turn is). If I turn a 9 I'm overbetting turn and river to get stacks in.

Whoops, I missed the straight draw/thanks. Seeing cards on the screen isn't as easy as real life.

This is a completely different Villain.

I think there is merit to putting out a 1/2 pot bet here.

i bet here.

i see this a lot. guy 3B with AK and sees a flop like this one. he knows that you're never folding a hand like 77-JJ and isn't prepared to fire 3 barrells to maybe get you off of it. he's check/giving up.

i dont expect him to ever c/rai with a worse hand. you have JJ/QQ in your range and i doubt he expects you to fold them on this flop - he's not gonna pull this crap with AK.

bet 65.

As played, check back the flop. I think broadways, JJ- are c-betting most of the time. Hands like QQ+ may c-r.

I'd call the turn, bet if checked to.

pretty easy call. its closer to a fold if you're calling only for set value and aren't capable of doing anything else (i.e. turning your pair into a bluff) post flop. but even then, i think its still a call since stacks are deep

Villain is a young white guy who plays poker for a living, he is agressive, with big ego, but knows better not to mess with a reg Hero, while there is fish at the table. Is a good overall winner, and is quite quite good. He is adjusting his game constantly, I don't have rock sold betting reads on him.

Table is 4 handed $1/2. SB Whale, BB Fish, Straddle Villain, BU Hero with 99.

Effective stacks: $600

Hero [$600] raises $16.
Blinds fold.
Villain [$600] 3bets $45. I don't think he is 3beting light here, oop and with fish out of the hand. He might have squeezed should some one from the blinds have called. He has a reasonable 3b range here.
Hero [$600] calls $29 more.
Flop:
235
Pot:$90.
Villain [$555] checks.
Hero [$555] checks back.

Turn:
2358
Pot:$90.
Villain bets $50.
Hero ..?

I'm a little late to the party. This is a fun hand. i love the check back on the flop. checking this flop from V is suspicious, and I agree with setsy that he c/raises KK/AA and worse hands than you. I like flatting this turn with the intention of calling all cards except 4, K, A, maybe Q.

i would have bet flop. as played, call turn.

What is the point of betting flop?
He is competent, winning player, fwiw.

Or, in other words, can I ever get called otf by worse?

Yea I'm betting flop as well. I think too many people are paranoid about villain playing trappy or tricky when really he is just being fairly straight forward when there are weaker spots at the table. He 3-bet pre and now doesn't see bet and checks out of position. I think this is a horrible board for him to check/raise on. And big pairs and sets will almost always bet this flop(not doing so would be missing a tonne of value). any decent ace has a gutshot plus overs so he is probably just done with the hand or planning on check calling with a hand like this or a pocket pair. The only hands I would be concerned about would be tens or jacks here.

As played I guesse call on the turn.

Call the turn and allow over cards (big 'dogs) to take a stab at the river. Raising folds hands that are behind.

Raising flop just bloats pot against a savvy opponent. If he has played with hero for a few rounds he knows he tends toward aggression and is likely counting on hero to bet. V cannot put us on a strong hand either, and a check raise makes for a fantastic move whether he has QQ or a bluff.

50 bet on turn? Also suspicious. He could be extracting value with TT plus, (checking flop hoping for c/r against aggressive opponent) or he could have AK attacking weakness. Call, assess river, keep pot small against this V.

Yes you can get called by worse, the issue isn't that betting doesn't have value its that you are reopening the action and your hand can't stand a ch/r.

collecting dead money and making him fold his equity (hands like AQ)

if he c/r just fold. his c/r range is mostly hands you're WB. i dont understand why people are advocating checking behind on the flop and (presumably) calling non-scary turn and river bets - and let's face it, we know these bets are coming. it's much easier to bet the flop and make him fold or bet the flop, have him c/r and we make the correct fold 80% of the time.

no... check flop.

Plus like someone said above it opens the action back up for the villain.

I think there is some AK/AQ c.raise air from this guy. I mean if called its likely he had 10 outs, and a c/raise has FE. He's putting a lot of strain on us for over 2500bb. A c/call is also bad news (I would think he never c/calls Ace high if he's any good). So basically the goal if we bet is to "end the hand, not for much value"

not to be pedantic, but there is a limited number of worse hands which will call a bet. The problem is that we're unlikely to know whether we're ahead or not when Villain calls.

small hands = small pots- let's try to get to the river and make notes.

he might be c/r with AK or AQ but i think everyone itt is overblowing the frequency in which villain is doing this. put yourself in his shoes.

hero just flat a 3B - that's pretty strong. villain isn't going to try to make us fold our TT-QQ (which is certainly in our range) by getting crazy with a AQ c/r or something like that. he just can't expect us to lay down a big pair on this flop so i don't think he tries it very often.

if he c/c, then the turn will probably go check/check and we can decide what to do from there on the river. i think letting this guy see a free turn with his KQ, AJ, AQ, AK hands is a big mistake. there are too many cards that we don't want to see to play this passively. any T, J, Q, K, A, 4 puts us in a tough spot.

anyway, as played call the turn

Pretty easy to explain. A good player will rarely float OOP with overs here otf. A good, aggressive villain will stab with them some decent % of the time turn/river if we check behind flop.

So now we just stick with our plan which we made on prior streets and call. Calling river as well but checking behind if checked to.

i see the rationale but this isn't poker after dark, it's a local 1/2 game vs a villain who OP describes as someone who "isn't going to make moves on hero".

so i don't expect a c/r with worse like ever.

will he stab on turn with worse? i guess we'll find out...

if he does, do you expect him to fire on the river too (with hands we beat)?

I agree with this ^.

If he's as savvy as you described, he can put a ton of pressure on your range (which is obv QQ-88 in this spot) with good FE and somewhat decent equity anyway. It's tough to call off your 200-250 stack here in this spot with JJ, let alone 99 or lower.

In fact, if he check/raises here, I'd be more inclined to weigh his range slightly more towards AK/AQ than to AA-QQ. Why wouldn't he just bet out with AA-QQ if he's as solid as you say?

Can you provide any more info on how he views you? In your history together, have you made big laydowns? I read the whole thread, but any more info on how he views you could help.

That's what makes this hand interesting. Both ranges are fairly well defined here. I think the only hand V is afraid of c/r'ing here is QQ (AA, KK likely reraises flop). If he's as solid as OP says, he's capable of making this play. Safer route is keeping pot small vs tough V. We can fold to an over later just as easily as we can fold to a c/r, but we save money. Also, its possible V has to fear an over just as much as we do. He bets a K or Q, easier to give him credit and fold. He c/r us? Not going to feel very good about that.

Passive isn't so bad here. We can still draw to a 9 or still have best hand on the river.