I think you're spot on, but I have a hard time deciding how narrow his range is here, and how often it's AK in this situation. It almost feels like I'm trying to manipulate it into the smallest possible portion because it's so specific, but in reality it's a substantial % of his range. c/r with a call leaves us in such a difficult river spot unless we bink...I'd rather c/c and keep his range open.

Now, let's say we get 2 otr. Do we c/c again? b/c? b/rr? I dunno.

To the call turn camp: why did you call the flop if you aren't going to make a play at this turn card? Especially when faced with this $60 chicken**** turn bet by villain? Yeah calling is fine and all, but it's pretty inconsistent with what got us to this point.

Why do we need to 'make a play' at this turn card when we just picked up every out in the deck? What part of villains range here is folding to a semi-bluff?

The only way to make a flop call +EV is to assume you've got some actual fold equity. Nothing in the turn action indicates your fold equity assumption is incorrect. So it's not rational to forfeit this FE because you are getting odds.

Of course, if you think you still have FE on the river, then sure. But I think you lose most if not all of your FE by waiting til river to bet.

I don't think that is correct. It is possible for a flop call to be +EV with fold equity, but in fact, the stacks are so deep here that if we know for a fact we do not have fold equity, we can still call for implied odds.

^Maybe it was more than 15 sec. Definitely <30 though.

*My initial thought was to raise to $240 then I started thinking (levelling myself?) that maybe he talks himself into peeling once with KK, perhaps he has more weak aces than I thought. At that moment I decided I was going to fire twice. To sizing...I thought smaller was best as it keeps his range wide with hands that pad the pot and then fold to a river bluff--hands that also can pay off small value bets. Thoughts?

Hero raises to $150, V thinks for 5 seconds and calls.

River: ($540) K

bink!

Hero?

*Bonus question: Sizing for other river cards: A, other , 9x, Jx, Qx, A/, rest of the deck? Are you bluffing the A/?

Excellent points.

The AKss is interesting. I mistakenly had the As on the board when doing my poker cruncher work. That is certainly one potentially devastating hand for us that makes some sense.

But we do need to range this villain.

Op says he will monkeybet underpairs. He says he value bets strong hands 1/2 Potish.

Taking a starting range of TT+ AK based on bet sizing tell read.

He has
12 underpair combos (JJ, QQ, KK)
11 TPTK (AK)
1 TPTK + NFD (AKss)
6 Sets (TT, AA)
as you elude to Vernon if he truly has those underpairs in his range our FE is quite large and my rough EV calcs (done on phone while commuting on the train) indicate that: c/r 275 ish fold to shove > Call > c/r 400 call off

Assuming he folds those underpairs to a substantial c/r that's 12/30 or 40% fold equity.

Now if the whole monkey bet thing is being overstated and he always or mostly checks back his underpairs ott, there is very little left in his range that is folding since read is that he will stack off with TPTK. Thus our FE plummets approaching 0%.

If we have no FE, semi bluffing becomes all semi and no bluff... Calling is then the better play.

I'm also having a hard time really keeping sets in his range here. Op says he's not sophisticated enough to be trapping here, the turn bet is just too small.

Def would like to hear mor discussion of his likely range ott.

Not sure how I feel about the raise size due to the complete lack of FE. I like the creativity since you had a plan and a reason for doing it though. My intuition says if you aren't going to elicit folds then just call (or raise bigger ideally).

River I just go for a standard river value bet of $350-400 hoping he's got AK.

I don't like the small raise against this villain. Villain has stationary tendencies and pays off too often on river. Your raise probably has 0 FE on the turn and makes it more expensive to bluff river.

Of course hitting the nuts also works. After check raising the turn you can't check now, you have to bet. The king is an ugly card for villain if it didn't improve his hand and you are mostly targeting the AK+ part of his range. I favor a pot sized $400-500. Shove is a bit too much but OK against this villain. Don't go smaller unless you are sure he is ready to muck his hand after that river hits.

Ok so I see Kookiemonster (from the Latin meaning runs like The Gods) has posted next action while I was typing.

So clearly you believe the same bet is consistent with underpairs in villain's range.

If that's the case I like bigger turn c/r and if we were comitted to emptying the clip it still leaves us something near a PSB which in absolute terms will be a big bet.

Of course with this handsome river card we now hope villain is at the too of his range.

He's got:
9 AK that made top 2
3 KK that made sets
Unlikely TT and AA discount to 1 combo given same bet ott.
That's 13 combos that he ain't folding
JJQQ - 6 combos

13/19 combos will call big bets... (What a river)

So 70% of his likely range will call a big bet and the other 30% isn't worth thinking about.

Had we bet 275 ott this would be an easy shove just under pot.

As played pot is 490 and we have I think like 860ish behind.

I know he's a POW and I like the overbet but man can we get him to call a rediculous overbet here? I don't think so.

Seems the only way to stack him would be to c/r or induce with a smallish lead. That risks letting him off the hook with his AK tho if he just flats. Given his fairly passive river play I think inducing is out.

So it's c/r or bombs away. I'm leaning toward check/shoving (greedy FPS.... The dreaded double check raise). Normally I'd not consider but this guy tho???.... Or just lead 3/4+ Potish.

x/r to 150??? Yikes! The only argument for that is mind games to set up a river FE when we miss, which seems fps.

AP, shove river.

My thoughts exactly.

If he has AK or KK and we check, the described Villain is definitely not checking back.

I want to stack this guy. So I'm either checking or I'm betting like 125ish hoping he raises.

To me the key question now is, what hands are in his range that he would call 350+ with but not bet if checked to?

This, minus the last line.

That's exactly why we should check!

If he's strong enough to call a turn x/r, then he's going to be strong enough to take the lead OTR when we check over to him. We want to make it look like a draw that missed or an ace that's afraid of AK, or anything that basically gave up after that weak x/r that now looks like, "oh, ****, my move didn't work. I'm done."

Damn... I'm starting to think I'd want to play against some of you. lol

Or he could just check back since our draw missed and we get nothing.

I don't trust that this villain as described will check behind to realize his showdown value.

Value bet, whatever's appropriate for your game. 350-400 feels appropriate.

I haven't read anything to feel confident that a check/raise pays us more on an EV basis. If anything, I could see V going for a "same-bet" $50 bet and then folding when we bomb. I'd rather make him call our bet.

If he has AK then I guess X/r is more feasible but we can't put him just on that hand. I think weak Ax is a bigger part of his range than most others in the thread.

That's a risk worth taking. The range of hands he "monkey bets" (this should replace "donk bet" or at least add to that lingo LOL.. wait.. monkey betting could be betting 100% of your range) after calling a x/r is wide. I get the impression that range doesn't narrow much on later streets.

If hero checks and villain bets something like $200, we can fire the heavy artillery and make it $550-$700.

it's hard for me to see how shoving isnt best here

Shoving 850 into 540?

Yep it's a big over bet but no way he folds KK or AK IMO.

Bigger c/r on the turn would have been ideal to set up a river shove easier

I don't think that's terrible but I don't think it's optimal. We don't expect to be raised very often on the turn. If villan was stronger he wouldn't bet so small. The larger portion of his range is weak 1 pair hands that will fold to aggression. He may not even raise sets.

Why is it a risk worth taking? You haven't presented an EV argument.

For check raising to be better than the near guaranteed payoff of a river value bet, not only does he need to not check back the river but he has to also call our check/raise which isn't that likely unless he has AA or KK.

And if he bet/folds the river (most likely), he is going to bet something stupid small like $100-150 like he has been betting all hand. Check raising is FPS while taking a standard value bet line is how we get paid by this pay off wizard.

You're right, I'll concede that. I don't think I've ever ran the EV of anything using pokerstove or any software.

Think of it like this: If he's going to call a big bet OTR and you expect him to, he's definitely going to be betting it out. Therefore, you should check and make more money. He just might bet an amount you would have bet out in the first place.

Shooooooovvvvvve

I sort of agree but I actually really dislike the sizing. He is never folding and when he does shove we are forced to fold our equity. Just doesn't seem worth the potential river bluff. If you sized it larger you would be able to shove the river for value. As it stands we had no fold equity and now we can't get max value on the river when we hit gin.

Lead for pot+. I'm liking $600-625. I don't think you every get it all in and get called unless villain does the pushing. And I just don't see that happening. So maximize return by overbetting the pot representing a missed FD?

You stated that villain needs a nut (ish) hand to go for value on the river. He does not have nuts here. Does he think that top set (as an example) is the nuts opposite the hand he thinks you have. (FD, two pair). Of those...and he thinks about it, none will call a push over.