I'll change my tune if he's really that damn narrow pre and that stingy post, making monstrous bets on flop and turn. I guess and just fold now that heros underrep doesn't matter anymore whatsoever and the only value target combos we had just improved.

I could obviously be mistaken, but with Hero flatting pre I doubt the V is ranging us on KK+. If V has KK+, he may check back turn more times than not. If he has AQ, probably checking back as well since he will fold worse.

On the other hand, AK is likely checking back turn as well. Tough decision point, so I vote fold.

Pre - Given the range assigned, I'd B/F $225.

As the villain I think betting AA OTT is very thin and probably bad. I feel like most villains that are IP would only go for 2 streets of value with AA, expecially after the top card pairs OTT. i'd expect most villains to check back the turn and value bet AA for value OTR if checked too AND hero call a lot OTR. Betting $250 with AA on a 5 T Q Q ($485) can get value from Kk, KJs, (10 combos). villain would have to bet/fold AA OTT, just a way better play to check OTT with AA.

So if villain is competent than I would exclude AA from his range after he bets $250 OTT. Villain is more likely polarized between air or nuts AQ/TT.

Player 1: 40.91% 40.91% 0% [KsKh]
Player 2: 59.09% 59.09% 0% {QQ, TT, AQs, A4s}

If you like the above range than i think calling OTT is fine and unfortunately check/folding OTR, unless you think villain is capable of triple barrel bluffs for 220bb. hero should be calling $250 OTT with AA-QQ, AQ-KQ, and should be raising with TT. Of course, KK is the exact bottom of our calling range so i understand folding it. But if villain either has nuts or air, then KK feels a lot like KQ when villain shoves OTR.

Thank you for listing a range with equities Open Limp. I think that weighting TT/AQs/A4s the same as QQ (I get that A4s is just there for a random bluff) is going to skew the numbers.

I think V could be bet/folding turn with AA. Of course, if we think he is and we call, we have to be willing to bet the river ourselves -- or just raise the turn. I am a chicken and I'm not willing to do either one. He could also think betting is the only way he's going to make any money w/ AQ or QQ, even if we all think he should check turn with those hands. This guy seems too tight to do this with AK, which is about the only hand we beat (maybe JJ, maybe chopping w/ KK).

Against this tight of a player and with limited info on how good he really is, I think folding turn is best. I hate the idea of calling turn and check/folding river.

In hand, hero called.


River: J ($985)
Hero...

I check/fold, but I would have folded on the turn.

If you called with the plan to check/call, bet yourself and maybe he'll fold AA or the other KK. Of course AK and JJ just got there, and I doubt he's folding either one. Terrible river.

Just check/fold.

Another terrible card. AK/JJ pulled in front. You only beat bluffs. C/f. AA/QQ/JJ/TT/AK/AQ all beat you. The best you can hope for is villain has an identical KK and you split.

Yeah I agree this river is pretty terrible and we're basically done with this hand, so I'm going to post results

I originally thought yes call 3b don't 4b then buckle up and call down, but after your explanations I started thinking fold turn since he won't bet for value with anything you beat, but then you made a good point his turn value betting range is really small since he 3b pre


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Well, at least you learned something about this opponent. I hope you get to play against him again.