Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
It sucks, because we called the flop hoping for this card, but he's playing his hand perfectly, he has priced us out, and we have to fold. Shipping is second best, calling is just dumb.
Why is shipping > calling if we have no FE?
V's bet is laying us 2.5:1 pot odds meaning we need to extract another $300 from V if we hit our diamond (we will have $430 remaining if we call the $200).
Does it really matter if V thinks we are a fish that paid a bad price to call if he folds (most of the time) when we shove clubs and calls (most of the time) when we shove diamonds?
2.3:1 times (43%) we will hit a card on the river that should give us a +EV shove (assuming V doesn't lead/shove clubs) which is better odds than the direct pot odds (2.5:1).
Please let me know if I am butchering the concept of implied odds here, but based on how we can manipulate V based on the river, calling seems superior to shoving since we rep nothing but a full-house (or an A4/46 straight). And we would have no reason to shove the turn with a boat because we are a 96% favorite at that point and can just raise the river if V doesn't shove himself on bricks.
I'd rather save that "last bullet" of $425 when I can actually rep something (clubs) and get V off his A-high range all the same.
PS: For the guys saying Hand 2 was spew, ok I guess I get that. I thought I was making a thin value raise against the AK/AQ part of his range, but if raising Hand 2 J-high flop from $75 to $200 when I actually had a pair was spew then what would shoving this turn for $625 with 0 FE be?
PSS: Would he still be playing his hand perfectly if he was just barreling into us with AK and we meekly called him all the way to the river with our humble AA-KK?