I can shove preflop with AA every time and give my opponents a chance to make a big mistake. That doesn't make it a good play.

So you're one of those results oriented types?

I now get how one could go on a 15k downswing at 2/5. This type of -EV call on the flop is straight up bad. You need to check your ego at the door, Johnnybuzz. You're not that good. 2/5 is a value game.

That reality is also starting to get real for me. Also i have some concern regarding OPs lack of listening to all the good input he gets.

My personal impression is that OP is all focused on utilizing the defense mode,wich is blocking his ability to reflect on the inputs he gets.

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Watching the progress of this thread reminded me of this thread OP made nearly a year ago.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...ettor-1554119/

OP makes several bad calls over the course of the hand and vehemently defends each and every one of them despite several well respected posters urging him to reconsider his course. He goes on to runner runner suck out and insist he was right all along. Keep on putting your opponents to those tough decisions OP and maybe one day you'll break out of that 100 buyin "downswing".

My point is that you can't just put an opponent to a decision and say that you did a good thing. He might not have had a very difficult decision.

This is true. I agree it might be. That is what I was referencing in a very early response about this spot intuitively feeling like it could wind up being +EV, but like you said that involves many subjective assumptions regarding villain and hero's ability to navigate various run outs. The point of consternation for me was the combination of villain's likelihood of playing his range face up, position, phantom equity and my belief that all of our outs are generally live in most permutations, and that we won't lose more than the minimum when our outs carry RIO and we improve to a second best hand.

As shocking as this may sound (this isn't directed at you s4), I'm not sitting here advocating that I played this hand brilliantly, merely that I believe the potential exists for the hand to end up +EV. The hand has piqued my interest enough that I am considering spending the hours necessary to model out a multi-street EV model to get a better approximation. True, I could manipulate the model and assumptions to fit my narrative but it's not about proving a point it's just to improve as a player.

Anyway, I appreciate you delving into the more theoretical side here s4. This is the first hand in 1500+ hours of live poker that has made me want to explore the math and theory on a much deeper level.

Do you guys have a check back range here? I don't think I do (AQ AK JJ sure, but limp those pre flop ~never). He basically never has a T and I think bluffing not just missed hearts but Axdd, QJ, KJdd is pretty mandatory.

So since his range is pretty much all medium showdown value and we have a reasonable number of bluffs, I would bet largish, like 335.

I was just discussing with a buddy by text this permutation. I think we can profitably bet any 4-line straight on the river since my read is he will play his hand face up and most likely value bet the river with Broadway. The sweet spot I arrived on was $275 which only needs a fold 40% of the time to break even. I felt we had a pretty cheap bluff for that price since the appearance looks like a very typical 2/5 value bet to a reg.

I think a deep dive on the math is always worthwhile. Doing it on a hand that interests you makes perfect sense, as you're most likely to lock in your conclusions.

It greatly simplifies the exercise if instead of a villain range you use his actual hand and you use his actual turn bet size for most turns. Still plenty of pieces and assumptions to the calculation though. Once you've analyzed his actual hand, you could look at AQ without the Q of hearts, which will yield a potentially very different result on heart turns. (Villain x/r?) And AA which also yields a different result on heart turns perhaps, and dramatically different results on J turns. (for the actual runnout, you get paid the $400 on the river when Villain holds AA, I'd claim)

this hand isn't bad if villain is folding when a flush hits.

Problem is - I would probably never fold a heart in this spot. I can see why he folds when a K comes and when you bet so much. I'm folding to the $400 river bet too, but probably will call a cheap river bet like $150


I think for this to work you need to pretty confident the player is scared money. I would assume this play is bad and flop is a fold. You got lucky and played this hand a tad recklessly. I also don't like your $400 river bet, as nothing is every calling you unless you have the craziest image. I'd go $150 - $200 and you would probably get paid off.