Call turn call river or bet river for 60% if checked to.

Came down with some food poisoning and slept for 30 hours straight. Forgot about this puppy. I forgot to include in the OP, but I believe V2 is a bit of a payoff wizard, especially when closing the action on the river.


OTTH

Effective Stacks: $625

V1 opens $20 UTG
V2 calls $20 in MP
Hero calls A4 on the BTN
V3 calls $20 from SB
BB folds

Flop ($80): T T 3

V3 checks
V1 checks
V2 bets $30
Hero calls $30
V3 folds
V1 folds

Turn ($140): 6

V2 bets $50
Hero calls $50

I figure our best chance at getting an additional bet in would come from a river raise (depending on her sizing). It gives us another street of info to try and figure out whether she has Tx (more unlikely) or a flush (more likely) or a boat (depends on sizing).(

River ($240): 5

V2 bets $125
Hero ... ?

So V2 changed her bet sizing from ~1/3 PSB on the flop and turn to 1/2 PSB on the river. Not sure if that eliminates Tx from her range or not because it would have made more sense to bet larger on the flop/turn with Tx. She's probably got most of the flushes in her range and some 66/33. Do we check back or go for value? She will most likely call off with AT and a decent number of flush draws and should only raise better.

If she bet $100 or less, def raising.. but against this sizing, just call.

I kinda wanna $275/fold.

but it's going to feel so dirty to fold the river getting like 23424:1 when she shoves.
Still think it's the best play though.

+1 and I like the sizing. Raise/folding is never fun but she's not 3! Jamming the river with worse and we want to get value from her flush combos / possibly Tx

I would like to jam

I'd shove. Villain has way more Tx and worse flushes than boats. Literally the only hand hero loses to is 33. Anything else is a massive cooler based on likely ranges. Go for max value. It's very hard for low stakes villains to bet/bet/bet-fold.

Crude combo math:

Losing to ~10 combos: 7 sets/quads, ~3 boats with Tx (included a few of these since OP suggests V can have some suited trash).

Ahead of ~44 combos: 6 AT, 8 KT, ~20 lower Tx (discounted due to river sizing), ~20 lower flushes.

If we raise to 275, I agree we're never getting 3b by worse and can safely fold. Clearly the raise to 275 is getting called by more than ~10 combos we beat, since V's not likely to fold most flushes to that and may call with some AT/KT type hands. So 275/f >> call.

An alternative is jamming 525. Also better than calling, since we're likely getting called by more than 10 flush combos at the very least. The problem is that there are so many hands in her range that are crying calls when we raise to 275 but likely become folds to a huge raise. Between the ~10 combos we lose an additional 250 to and the many we miss out on 150 to, I kinda doubt we're getting called by enough to make jamming preferable to 275/f. I'm open to OP's assessment of V's calling ranges to the two raise sizes, though.

After calling turn, I like jamming 2457 and 275ing 89JQKA.

Semi-grunch

Preflop is a clear call in my eyes. Versus described villains no need to 3bet. Folding might be closer to folding than some people think, but it's still ****ing ridiculous here.

Flop I like calling

Turn I like raising.

Very few hands that beat you, a lot of hands that will call a raise, like Tx, 7s7x-QsQx and lower flushes. If they do have a weaker-ish hand that we beat, but will fold to the turn raise like 77!s-QQ!s, they are going to c/f any spade river, and those hands still have a decent amount of equity vs our hand anyways!

River as played I go all in. Another option is to min-raise/fold but I prefer jamming.

Don't see villain showing up with 10 X ever. River range is 3s full or smaller flushes.

Your read on her is that she's too loose post so yeah raise or jam.

Obviously just call river vs MUB types or anyone decent to good that snap Bet/Fold flushes on river.

3's full of 10's but I can't fold.

at least she bet more otr so we don't "have" to raise.

Going back to the flop - she was next to act after a check and the initial raiser checked, so there was hero left to act and the SB which checked to the raiser, so with 4 people on a paired board, she bet the flop and continued all the way to the river without slowing down (actually increased her river bet)

This looks like a monster (TT flatting in MP from a cautious/losing player or 33)

there's 400 behind after the river bet and the pot is 490 if we flat so if I raise I would do it with the intention of calling a jam but I don't see anything wrong with just flatting. The board's paired anyway. I think it's less likely she would bet 30 into 80 in a 4 way pot from MP with a FD and the flush didn't scare her after it came if she had a ten.

I call

I advocate a call but I might be a nit. Lots of lower flushes in her range with a handful of boats/quads. I think raising the river will only likely get all dominated flushes to fold.

Results

V just called???? WTFFFF

#ReasonsWeCanRaiseFoldatLLSNL

Yeah that's pretty absurd she just called here though lol... Nasty turn card

I wonder what's V's 3b shoving range OTR if he's just calling with 66?

Are we really raising such a nit???

WTF @ results. This hand should be moved to the donkalicous thread.

FYP

Too bad we didn't raise the flop.

No. Not a nit- just bad. Idk how she doesn't jam this river though that really surprises me

I would've raised flop, calling can't be that bad but I don't think we can call pre-flop playing make a hand poker all the time with this hand. Def raising the turn unless I have some reason not to (known bluffer, nit who will fold worse flushes to a raise); too much value not to. Definitely raising the river as played.

people don't usually re-raise a paired board when they have a low full house.