Your flop bet was huge and didn't need to be bigger than 1/2 to accomplish the same goal ~ getting value from overs & crud like GSSDs. I balance that with trips hands on a dry board like this. I put UTG on a high PP here too and think we have 2 choices: check back and hope to show down a winner vs a poorly played hand or shove turn if you think UTG is capable of folding JJ+ on a double paired board.
I like a shove vs villain with limited description & believe he will have trouble calling it off in a 5+way pot. He never has a 7 here & we certainly do although it would balance our range better to bet flop smaller as we would with a 5,7,or 9.

c/decide. I think your bet sizing on the flop has us in an annoying spot here. Wish we'd gone closer to 80-100.

You've got some sick reads considering this is the first hand you've playing with any of these players here OP. You just know from how they look?

Edit: Is this really 2p2? Almost 30 posts in and no one has said that he should buy in full?

Oh by the way, buy in full.

420 is my by-in size.

I would check behind on the turn and re-evaluate OTR
Besides a bluff catcher what hand do you beat that calls any bet here.

if as brick comes on the river and its checked again, you could consider a shove to fold something like JJ or QQ.

How comfortable is V1 looking at this point??

Buying in for less than full is suboptimal if you think you're better than the other players.

I buy in for 420. if I don't bulk up by the end of the second orbit I top it off. This gives me the opportunity to get a feel for the table and forces me to pay a little more attention as I won't top off until I take a few mental notes.

I do not think this is suboptimal but I am here to learn and improve so maybe its worth re-considering.

feedback welcome

I couldnt tell if it was villains 2 and 5 or villains 2 thru 5 call. If it is utg + 4 callers I jam the 420 and yawn.

Villians 2 through 5....


I was seriously considering this and was surprised nobody else reccommended this. Look at all the dead monies!

Im glad you said something.

What's your shoving range here?

And before you yawn, what range would you put utg on? If it's 88+, AQ+ do you still think shove is best? Why/why not? A lot of your responses tend to lack analysis/explanations, and those are far more helpful IMO than posting one-liners like 'shove'

This short, with this amt. of dead cash, my shove range would most likely be 88+ AQ+. (MINUS some of the largest pairs) I would expect all fold between 60-75% the time and to flip literally the vast majority of the time when called.

CAlling raises OOP with high cards is a major downfall of live players. That is why putting the added heat of an outright shove is warranted since we rather that even though we have the best hand, we benefit greater if we fold everyone out rather than two players call OOP with broadway cards each.

Note: WE are short so implied set odds are really not what they would seem to be. Give us all 125 to 150bb+ and I would much rather save the value of 99 for sets. But when I am this short, I want the dead money first and only a shove gives me the best chance of hitting my goal.

Obv flatting pre is fine as well but I just happen to think shoving is optimal.

On the turn I check. Your flop sizing should have folded over cards, so no need to charge those. A 7x is possible, and so is 88-JJ. You aren't doing well against that range and it's hard for me to think of other hands that should be here by this point absent history or reads.

Also, you need to plan your hand better, and think about concepts like commitment threshold. Your flop sizing was very poor IMO and gets you in a tough spot. A little over 1/2 pot would have charged all the over cards and increased the odds of worse hands incorrectly calling

OK Setsy, valid question so valid answers are due.

I do not put a young aggro unhappy villain on that tight of range. I also think
he can find folds of AQ AJs TT maybe even JJ some. This much dead cash will far outweight the times he holds strong enough to call and have us crushed.

As far as one liner answers, I havent a leg to stand on other than I have a solid rep here, and these days I charge for most complete hand analysis so I figure even a short answer is better than none. Smug? Maybe so. Everyone here knows I never have competed for best personality so most just overlook that.

But my time is very limited these days (except for days like today) so I throw out what i have time for. Back in the old days when CTS would give a one word answer, I was grateful that I got it for free rather than contact him at $500 an hour. Something to think about before berating me.

AintNoLimit, I definitely see your point and I think that it's valid. Our FE + Equity when called is pretty damned good considering the size of the pot.

My initial reaction was that this is LDO a flat call but you may be right here. I would definitely be shoving a smaller stack. What's the largest stack size you would shove with?

These rediculous bloated preflops in live poker call for extreme measures when playing optimally. Admittedly 420 is tad overkill so this is about the saddle for me. Also, if there were 2 callers instead of 4, I would much prefer flatting here. There is absolutely no question that 1 possible laggy upset raiser + 4 callers for 6x open sizing creates a positive shove for us with 99 and less than 100bb. Where the line is really drawn with less players or deeper stacks will be a very close decision at best.

In a 400nl game online, we have to call shoves from fairly tight range to protect a mere 13bb dead in the pot. Here, when we reach out and take 31bb without a race, that is a landslide victory, not to mention a huge reciprocal victory as well since no other player is sharp enough to make the play when they hold the 99.

the only reason i didn't suggest shoving pre is because i don't like squeezing dead money without better reads on the opener's range and calling tendencies. with a random young player like UTG, my assumed opening range for him from up front at 2/5 is too narrow and his calling range is too nutty (IMO) for a shove to be more profitable than set mining here, even considering the amount of dead money and our stack size.

ANL I'm surprised that AQ would be included in your preflop shoving range here. our equity against his calling range with AQ isn't high enough to make it a profitable play IMO.

AintNoLimit:

Thank you for your explanation. My intention was not to berate you as you put it. It was to encourage thoughtful discussion and analysis vs. short answers with no explanations. Irrespective of your or anyone's reputation, in my opinion it is far more helpful when people discuss the reasons for why they would do something as opposed to focus on what to do.

As to your actual suggestion to shove, here is my analysis:

- Assuming you get called by JJ+, AK, you have ~ 33% equity when called
- Assuming that none of the overcallers ever continue and taking into account the dead money, he needs to fold 41% of the time for your suggestion of shoving to be +EV
- For him to fold 41% of the time, his range needs to be wider than 5% (99+, AQ+).
- If his opening range here is 77+, AQ+, AJs, the EV of a shove is ~ $30
- Not knowing much about the player, it's hard to give him a much wider range than the above, although certainly possible that he is doing this with 22+, SCs, AQ+, Axs - we just don't have that read. Given his sizing and position I would err on assuming a tighter range until known otherwise.

If we call, it's much harder to calculate our EV. But if we assume that we double up 50% of the time we hit a set + win the dead money, and the other 50% of the time that we hit a set we just win the PF money, our EV is $12 assuming we just give up if we don't hit a set. We need to double up 90% of the time we hit a set for our EV to be over $30, or we need to sometimes win without a set.

So based on the above (unless I made some math mistakes somewhere, which is always possible), it does look like shoving is a decent option, which wasn't my initial reaction when you suggested it.

420!!!!!!

i always buy in tree fiddy