Im thinking villains range might narrow from 100% to 40% otf, then to 20% after the turn, and like 15% calls a river shove

This makes a lot of sense to me, and certainly supports a bigger turn bet.

But are there any misses that you'd stab at on the river? An offsuit king? A seven? I guess if we bet bigger on the turn, then villain has likely made up his mind to go with the hand.

Hero's line to check-raise would be +EV with any ATC here, not to mention the additional equity he has with backdoor flush draws, a gutshot, and an overcard. V's range is super wide and he should be folding a ton of broadway combos on the flop. V could also easily fold any overpair less than TT.

Getting called pretty much narrows his range to sets or overpairs. V could think you are doing this with an overpair that he beats, so he may get sticky, but I doubt he puts his whole stack over 3 streets without AA or a set.

Once the turn brings us 33% equity, we have to unload the clip here. Either a PSB on the turn and shove river, or just overbet shove the turn maximizing our fold equity against JJ-KK. Even AA could find a fold since your image is super tight and he thinks a big bet from you could only be a set that is scared of being drawn out on.

This is why you shove riv when taking this line, and if V is calling all flops+turns+rivers with that much his range than hero cannot ever take this line in the first place.

Hero cannot give up riv.

Unless Villain is happy going to the flop 4+ ways with an overpair (which he knows a lol $12 raise after 3 impers is going to do), I just don't see overpairs in his range as much as everyone else does.

Gbutmaybethat'sjustmeG

GG, this guy was good enough that he wasn't giving away the strength of his hands with his preflop raise size.

Others at the table weren't though. I correctly folded KK on a Q-high flop after another player made it $23 preflop from early position. I figured he had to be QQ+ there. He showed AA after I mucked. Heck, I probably should have folded my KK preflop to the guy.

Unfortunately, this villain was better than that. This was his standard raise from late position.

If you are villain do you call alot of turns and fold on the river a lot?

Where I am in my range, hero tendencies, and gameflow are going to have a pretty big impact on my turn-river play, but to answer you directly, yes, I do have a decent number of riv folds.

The reason is, I am just so rarely getting exploited at a game like this on the end when most opponents aren't going to/aren't capable of firing thrice with bluffs/worse for value. Once I elect to flat turn, my perceived range tightens/simmers perceived FE to where I can usually play the river extremely well in position, especially when good players....

One of my bad habits is projecting my playing style onto others that are described as competent, so in this case, unless we're all quite deep (it's unclear), I know I'm not doing some lame-o ~minraise after 3 limpers with big pairs and instead I'm raising larger to narrow the field (and yet still expecting to get called at my loose table). I have to keep reminding myself that not every competent player thinks the same way I do regarding preflop (which is clear given recent threads on this issue).

GcluelessNLnoobG

On such a dry flop I think a smaller raise is better, 55-65 accomplishes the same thing and saves you $ if he ships it right there

Turn sizing looked a bit small, especially in contrast to the flop

On to the river....

PREFLOP
Three limpers to Hero on the highjack. Hero limps behind with A5.

Villain raises the button to $12. Two callers and Hero calls.

FLOP ($40): 237

Checks to button, who cbets for $20.
Folds to Hero. I make it $75 with an overcard, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush draw.

Villain goes into the tank for a long time and finally calls.

TURN ($190, with $410 behind):
T
Hero bets $125. Villain tank calls again.

RIVER ($440, with $285 behind):
A

Yay...? Do I value bet? Check/call? Check...(sigh)...fold?

Check/Fold. Villain isn't going to turn JJ-KK into a bluff. No reason to empty the clip since he's not going to fold a hand that's ahead of you.

Bet $75-100 or check/fold (expecting v to check back almost 100% of the time)

AP Its nothing other than a shove - if he called turn with a naked SD then lol cool hand bro, but it's not like V is exclusively calling 45 always and everything else never.

Yeah think it's just a jam. If he folds all his bluff-catchers here (KK-JJ), you can just start x/raising a bunch of boards and jam a bunch of runouts.

What could villain possibly be bluff catching here? Exactly two spewy combos of 54 and 98?

River is a x/f and turn is a b/f as we need 28% equity to call off a jam (at hero's sizing) and we likely have 10 outs (22%) vs. villain's jam turn range. Even if we size up the turn to $175 we still have a -EV call off.

5 4 ain't exactly a bluff catcher for V on the river

Meant bluff catching against (and 56dd). Point remains.

I think I like check fold > shove > check call.

check call: If villain gets there with hands worse than a pair of 7s, we are bluffcatching against these, as a check on our part now looks like 7x. There are not many of these for villain. 34 diamonds? discounted. 76 / 78 diamonds, ya ok. but he may check behind, so this sucks

shove: We limp called pre which doesnt put a lot of aces into our range. so if villain flopped an overpair, JJ-KK, is he calling? Maybe. But he honestly might be folding his entire bluffcatching range, which he shouldnt, but aces are scary. He might be going the exploitable route here and only snapping off with his sets and 2 pair.

check fold: Usually goes check check and we win. He'll be choked lol. He doesnt have enough hands with no showdown value here that can bluff, so I'm pretty comfortable folding here.

Check fold is the winner here for me.

Lol, if I had a guess, Villain probably has 22 and might even seriously consider nit folding it on the river.

Gmyguessallalongisthatwe'vebeenbarrellingintoamons terG