Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko
We back into a perfect spot to delay cbet. Likely nobody has K. Add in we hold 2 blockers to Qx. It is very likely we have best hand.
By no means was flop plan to delay cbet. But mearly adapting to new information, and range development.
I expect to deny equity, get value, and possibly get folds from better. Betting turn is very strong option here.
Also checking this flop with KK, and QQ a small percentage of time. Likely also checking AK with As.
There is a big difference between delayed c-betting 3rd pair with 2 high ranked overs than it is continuing with 2nd pair. This is also $1/$2 NL so checking flop with QQ+/AK oop 3-way is missing value, imho. The alternative is cbetting smaller. There is also one drunken opponent.
The information we have gained up until the turn is that likely no one has KX. I think we can also safely say that the last to act opponent likely doesn’t have QX because he would have bet flop after two checks. However, there are still 12 combos of AQ, the same amount as TT/99, that the BB can have in his PF call and flop check range. We have something like > 0% fold equity vs. this hand.
Though Hero blocks some, there are draws like AXss that will call ip. Betting will further bloat the pot oop, making a river bomb more expensive.
Not saying the turn is a C/F, but a check/eval.