There are two choices. First, give up and fold. There's no hand he makes this bet with that you beat.

The only other choice is to raise to avoid going to show down. He has $330 left. If you had a set of aces, you wouldn't jam (because there are no draws) but rather lure him in to have a <PSB on the river. If you raise to $100, the pot would go to $300 if he calls and he'd have $255 left. If he's thinking, he knows this and JJ/TT isn't going to look so good.

To be +EV, it would have to work 45% of the time. At best 40% of his range is folding. In a one time, never will play poker game situation, it is a fold. However, I'm willing to dump $10 to keep my image in place. He comes over the top and you can go, "LOL, TP no good huh" and fold. He folds and you collect the bet. If he calls, he'll call a river bet too, so you can check behind and muck.

I really like a bet on that flop because BB should be 4betting big aces OOP and flatting more PPs if he is decent. Villain would get one bet out of me in the form of a $50 flop cbet/fold line. If he really views me as SLAG, I might just check/fold down.
As played, I fold to the turn "value town" bet.
What is villains range here? Mid 20s, Asian, mostly tight and decent player. I give him a tight value range here calling OOP vs a 3bet for 18% of his stack, where post flop SPR will ~3. He's not calling with speculative hands with for 1/6th of his stack pre OOP.
Range: AA-22, AQ+. I really prefer AA-TT, AQs+, AK discounting the others.
Our holding & our range is smashed vs his range and he probably puts us on QQ-77, KQ & KK+ after our flop check. We beat 0% of my tight range and <1/3rd of his loose range if he bets all holdings.

Villain is BB, not UTG raiser. Villain only has 200 left.

Yes, if he calls you give up (although one can argue a river shove added to a turn raise can be extremely effective)

This is designed to take the pot down now..$80 is an amount the villain can get away from but if he calls, he falls within commitment threshold

ya guys please note we were $270 EFF with Villain at the start of the hand. the blind raiser (UTG) folded pre flop. Villain called from the BB.

if we raise turn to $100 and villain flatted he would have $125 left OTR and the pot would be $300.

$80 does the same job. The point is for him to fold. If he flats, river is a check back. if he raises turn, I fold

Hmmm, I didn't notice that a turn raise might create a situation where the villain might feel he is committed when the river card comes out and says f*ck-it-I'm-all-in. i.e. The less chance there is of actually setting the price for our showdown, the less I like the raise on the turn.

Since we checked the flop maybe he read that as weakness or he thinks we are giving up on the hand. So he leads 25 into 100 hoping that we'll call to get to the river, or we'll blow up and raise and he can 3bet all-in. The turn seems like a blank relative to what's already on the board. He could have AK, or a set of 6s. Hell he may have gotten lucky and turned a set of 4s! Or he has JJ or QQ and puts us on a smaller pair so is just trying to get value out of us. Either way I don't see how we are ahead here. But then this is LLSNL and I've seen some crazy things that never seem to make much sense.

My bad.

I'm more inclined to fold then. If raising, moving it to $75 is sufficient.

I'd really be surprised to see the guy flat here in the bb with anything other than JJ-AA or AK. I would just shut it down and fold to the $25 bet. Weak means strong here most likely.

I know a lot of guys are trying to solve this puzzle of a hand and find a way to win.. but I just think there are so many easier spots to put money in ahead. I would just give up and move on to the next hand.

A raise might get him off TT-QQ, or it might not because you checked the flop. I think if you were going to bet at it you should have stabbed at the flop.

Reads and History

table: lots of $300+ stacks. the dynamic in this room is that people limp and call large bets preflop a lot. it's a Tuesday night game, so most of the table is familiar with one another and it's a reg-ish lineup.

hero: hero is not a reg in this room and thus unfamiliar to the regs. transferred from another table 1 hour ago. hero raised UTG's straddle to $30 over 2 limpers once earlier, and opened one other time, but otherwise has been overlimping lots. hero image is mostly tight but a bit sLAGGY after semi-bluffing draws twice and missing and having to fold to bets on later streets.

villain: mid-20s Asian reg, seems like a pretty good player, mostly tight. decent hand reading skills.

UTG: big guy, dresses like a G, friendly/outgoing, reg. doesn't like folding preflop much, able to make moves post flop, but for the most part is solid.

The Hand

$1/$2 - $500 max - 10 players

Villain (BB) $270
UTG ~$400
Hero (MP) covers

Pre Flop: ($3) Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG blind raises $15, folds, Hero reraises to $45, folds, Villain (BB) calls $43, UTG folds

Flop: ($100) A K 6 (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($100) 4 (2 players)
Villain bets $25, Hero calls $25

River: ($150) 8 (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero ?

I like the turn call vs. a raise/fold to something like 75-80 because there's a chance he'll bet weakly on the river or even check if he's confused. If he bets small again, it's likely to be around 50, which would make our combined turn and river investment around 75-80, allowing us to make showdown rather than be raised out of the hand for the same price. If he makes a huge river bet, we can comfortably fold and our turn/river investment stays limited to 25.

Folding isn't wrong OTT, but I like the turn call because I think he makes this bet sometimes with pp's that we beat.

I'm checking back the river.

"villain: mid-20s Asian reg, seems like a pretty good player, mostly tight. decent hand reading skills"

Villain is defending a tight range in this scenario. Potentially all pp's (you both will have $200+ going to the flop after the call), strong broadways, and some weaker suited broadways. Maybe some high suited connectors like J10/910/89.

With this range he is mostly hitting weak pairs on a AKx flop.

He is never made on this flop besides 66 and maybe AK. I assume he is never flatting AA or KK.

The main point is that although he is never strong here he does hit this flop with medium strength a fair amount of the time and when he doesn't we are way ahead.

His turn bet coincides a lot with this reasoning.

I think he bets a weak made hand here more often than a hand we beat. Although we are getting good odds I think the turn is a fold once we check back the flop.

I do not have the confidence yet to make a big bluff on this board texture (ie jamming turn or flatting turn and jamming river if checked to) as I feel there are better spots at 1/2.

I'd much rather bluff Q high J high and more ragish flops repping the overpair.

As played I would check back the river.

Looking at a c-bet of $70 (turning hero's pair into a bluff, which needs to work ~42% of the time)...

1. Against {JJ+, AK} hero likely gets a fold 44% of the time.
2. Against {JJ+, AK, AQs} hero likely gets a fold 40% of the time.
3. Against {TT+, AK, AQs, AJs} hero likely gets a fold 46% of the time.
4. Against {JJ+, AK, AQs, AJs} hero likely gets a fold 36% of the time.
5. Against {TT+, AK, AQ, AJs} hero likely gets a fold 38% of the time.
6. Against {TT-QQ, AK, AQs, AJs} hero likely gets a fold 55% of the time.
7. Against {JJ-QQ, AK, AQs, AJs} hero likely gets a fold 44% of the time.
8. Against {JJ-QQ, AK} hero likely gets a fold 57% of the time.

It seems like c-betting is close to neutral EV, but I would c-bet b/c I think some of the above ranges are more likely than others.

I think this is one of the few spots where it is okay to commit ~43% of effective stacks and not necessarily see a SD.

I feel cbetting or c/folding to the river are the main options for this hand.

We got to showdown. Check back the river. We are only getting called by worse if we bet. What would be hoping to get thin value from?

no body bets river as a bluff?

as played i can see merit to a river bluff, but only if villian has shwon ability to fold med strength hands. i think we get folds from 1010 and maybe JJ but i think our hand is pretty face up as medium pair 77-JJ so i think qq+ calls a river bet here facing this particular line. I dont think villaisn range consist of enough hands that fold to make this a bountiful spot to bluff although it may be around neutral and ergo not terrible imo a check down is good after the call ott which i think is a fold.

I think we have to cbet this flop and continue ott to make a bluff on this board productive. obv villians calling range on this hybrid blind open/3bet pot is difficult to uncover but i doubt it would have any small suited aces so im weighing it heavily toward A8ss+, A10+, KQ+ and 77 or maybe 88+

our check otf dramaticly minimizes our range and makes this hand easy to play for villian. however, when villian is facing a bets otf and ott his calling range is so small that we show a decent profit by bluffing the 99.

for those advocating a raise ott, doesnt that just look like a bluff. If we c/r ott we are repping what, trips, thats very very unlikely and if i were villian i would shove over a c/r as a bluff and possibly for value with as little as QQ.

How about as a range merge? V may look you up w/a small pair, but many also fold 99+.

no, i would do it to try to get folds from all his hands that aren't Ax or better, because i feel like his turn bet sizing tilts his range towards his weaker holdings (mostly TT-QQ).

i think we beat almost nothing here so there's no part of his range i'm ever looking for value from.

In that case, I'd just check. A bet here (and it would have to be a big one) would look bluffy to the V.

what about an underbluff?

These two facts:

1. It's $1/2.
2. villain: mid-20s Asian reg, seems like a pretty good player, mostly tight. decent hand reading skills.

make bluffing a bad idea. I mean, what are you representing, a set of 8s?

An underbluff here would represent something like a cautiously-played TP, which hero hopes will fold out TT-QQ.
I'm not so sure QQ is in his range myself since he flatted hero's pf raise knowing there was a good chance the straddler would call.

The time to make the bluff was on the turn, where you could threaten his stack. As a 1/2 player a $50 bet is going to have him whine for a while, then call you because he's getting odds.

If your image is of complete donk, you could get away with a massive AI overshove. You could look like you wildly misplayed your hand and now want to get paid off. It would be tough for him to call anything other than Ax. Even then, he might puke fold.