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PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value

11-29-2012 , 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamIsDestiny
Fine so far.

Slowplay is best here given the stack sizes.

He should be betting around $40-50 on the turn. We can flat to keep his bluffs in and get shove the river if he checks. If he bets less, then I would be raising.

If he checks the turn, we bet $50 with aims to get a $120 shove in on the river.

If you raise, which is never a bad thing, then it should be in the $65-75 range as it sets up an easy turn ship.

I feel a call > a raise because 1) stacks can get in on any street vs a queen 2) keeps his bluffs in (which there should be some in his range considering how dry this board is and we have 3/4 sixes) 3) if he's semi-sophisticated, then it's feasible that he turns some PP into bluffs by the river.
Same logic applies, but now we have 4/4 sixes, so there's even more bluffs. Any queen is definitely not folding on any street.

I don't typically advocate slowplays in LLSNL, but let him turn his small PP into bluffs.

In before the last queen peels off on the river. I'm not folding when it does.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-29-2012 , 10:30 PM
D'oh! Typo -- should be 8 sorry!

NOT a quads hand.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-29-2012 , 10:55 PM
You should have titled this thread - SPOT TO SLOWPLAY YAY!!!
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:44 PM
Still same logic applies as outlined by gg. He bets to you and you call and the river you take care that all the money goes in.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 10:23 AM
Wrapping up the hand, I called the turn. River brought a blank, V checks, I bet $50. He shows me a queen and asks what he should do, and finally calls. I show the six's, he turns over his crappy kicker.

Posted this because generally I've been wondering if I've been leaving money on the table. I'm not saying that I'm not, but at least with this hand I think I got as much out of V as I could.

I wasn't sure where I should pop it, whether I should've raised the flop or turn. After reading everything the only thing I probably could've done better was shove the river, but I felt he was getting suspicious and wasn't sure he'd put his stack in with queen rag.

Thanks for the feedback and commentary all, I look forward to the next one.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 12:22 PM
Hard to be objective about the turn already knowing what V was holding but I think that the missed value was the call on the turn. If V has a Q, he is calling a turn raise, which prices him in to call any river since he will have $70 or less behind into a $250+ pot. If V does not have a Q, we are not getting a river bet out of him unless he hits a two outer (or A or K) on the river.

As played, I think the river bet was too small. There is $140 in the pot; bet should be at least $80 and there is a case for the shove (which is only $130), as it looks like you are trying to push him off the hand.

One thing to think about here is that you only need him to call your shove about 40% as often as he calls the $50 bet for them to be equal value. So if he is calling the $50 90% of the time, he just has to call the shove 35% of the time for them to be =EV. Any percentage he calls the shove above 35% makes the shove +EV.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 12:39 PM
Quads or not, I'd probably just flat the turn as well. Board is still not drawy, so I'd like to keep in bluffs and other pairs. Pot will be $163 with villain only having $130 left on the river, so we'll still be able to play for stacks on the river.

Terrible river bet, imo. Must shove the rest in there. We slowplayed because we knew we'd still be able to play for stacks, and yet then we don't on the river which is missing huge value. He's never folding a Q.

If we're not going to shove 3/4 PSB on the river, then we must raise earlier in the hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sao
If V does not have a Q, we are not getting a river bet out of him unless he hits a two outer (or A or K) on the river.
If Villain is bluffing air a flat on the turn allows him to possibly 3barrel.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 12:45 PM
Betting $50 on that river? You value owned yourself. Have to get it all in there.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 12:48 PM
Do you know a lot of 1/2 players who will fire three bullets with air on a paired board? Heck, this guy didn't even three barrel when he had trips.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sao
Do you know a lot of 1/2 players who will fire three bullets with air on a paired board? Heck, this guy didn't even three barrel when he had trips.
I agree it's unlikely. But we still automatically get paid off on a river shove by any Qx hand (I'm assuming we agree on that?), so we can basically ignore Qx hands on the turn (i.e. vs Qx, the hand is already pre-determined: the rest of the chips will go in on the river). Which leaves air / smaller pairs, in which case the best way to play vs those is to flat and possibly give us one more chance at getting money out of those hands.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 09:04 PM
Two things:

1. OP, you closed this a bit to early, imo.

2. Nice post sao.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sao
Hard to be objective about the turn already knowing what V was holding but I think that the missed value was the call on the turn. If V has a Q, he is calling a turn raise, which prices him in to call any river since he will have $70 or less behind into a $250+ pot. If V does not have a Q, we are not getting a river bet out of him unless he hits a two outer (or A or K) on the river.

As played, I think the river bet was too small. There is $140 in the pot; bet should be at least $80 and there is a case for the shove (which is only $130), as it looks like you are trying to push him off the hand.

One thing to think about here is that you only need him to call your shove about 40% as often as he calls the $50 bet for them to be equal value. So if he is calling the $50 90% of the time, he just has to call the shove 35% of the time for them to be =EV. Any percentage he calls the shove above 35% makes the shove +EV.
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
11-30-2012 , 11:24 PM
PAHWM thread titles are no longer credible
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
12-01-2012 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maitaimaker
D'oh! Typo -- should be 8 sorry!

NOT a quads hand.
LOL! And you say you don't drink a the table!
PAHWM - 1/2/2 Getting Max Value Quote
12-01-2012 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sao

As played, I think the river bet was too small. There is $140 in the pot; bet should be at least $80 and there is a case for the shove (which is only $130), as it looks like you are trying to push him off the hand.
+1. He's either calling or not calling, so a big river bet is in order.
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