Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
Why? Wouldnt we want to check back more if more of his range is sets/boats?
Result:
Sorry if my earlier post wasn't clear. My advice for the river comes down to our hand reading. The options are check-back, bet small, or bet big.
Check back if we think he's slow-playing sets on the flop. Bet small if we think he's gotten sticky with 88-TT and every combo of QX (QJ, QT, Q9, etc). Bet big/jam if we think he's not getting to the river with worse than AQ (or maybe KQ), but that scenario excludes the likelihood that he slow-played a set.
Some hand-reading, as I'd do it, to lead to a river decision...
1) He opened 5x UTG, flat called hero's 3B, and then flat-called hero's roughly 1/3 pot c-bet on the flop.
Deduction - he has very few sets, and almost no 2P here.
Rocks don't open Q7, Q2 or 72 UTG. His worse QX holding is probably QJs, when he calls your 3B. He could have AQ or KQ.
QQ would likely 4B pre when OOP, at least some of the time. 77 and 22 are going to fold to the 3B pre, at least some of the time, especially if V is a rock and / or capable of understanding you're not deep enough for him to profitably set-mine by flat calling.
If he did have a set, he can comfortably check the flop, because it's as disconnected as it gets, but the lower his set, the more likely he'd be to donk-bet and / or check-raise when you bet small. So 22 really wants to donk or check raise a lot, 77 wants to donk or x/r slightly less, and QQ can go either way, but will often wait until the turn.
Based on your description, I think QQ is really the only set squarely in his range on the flop, and that assumes he's just flatting pre with QQ when OOP. Occasionally, maybe he has 77. He'll rarely have 22.
2) He tank-calls your large-ish turn bet on the rainbow-completing 2, setting up an awkward SPR for the river.
Deduction - there's only one combo of 22 available now, so it's even less likely he has that. He can opt to flat call again with QQ, since it's top boat, but 77 is going to want to spring the trap here, a lot, rather than risk you making a bigger boat or shutting down on the river.
QQ should raise here, too, at least some of the time, for the same reason, though obviously QQ needs less protection than 77. Even if QQ and 77 aren't worried about you making a bigger boat or shutting down, by this point, he's got to be thinking about how he's going to get stacks in.
There's about 80% pot left behind. What's he do on the river? Donk-jam 80% pot? Check and hope you'll bet so he can call a jam or check-raise AI? We have to think that QQ and 77 are going to raise turn at least some of the time, to get stacks in now, or make it easier to get them in on the river.
What other hands would tank-call?
AQ, KQ, and QJ might, but would probably just insta-call, and not tank, unless he's thinking about raising, but why would he, on this board, where there are no draws? Rocks don't raise TP in spots like this, they just check-call. His hand doesn't need much if any protection. He's either way ahead or way behind when we go bet-bet-bet here.
Maybe also 88-JJ. He could be going back through the memory banks, replaying the pre-flop action and flop action, trying to put you on a range, ruling out 22, wondering if you have 77, if you have any bluffs when you take this sizing, etc. 88-JJ need to think about calling, raising, or folding on this board.
3) He checks again on a river brick.
Deduction - at this point, I'm severely discounting QQ, 77, 22, 72 (seriously?), Q7, and Q2. I'm mostly putting him on QX or 88-JJ that got sticky.
I could go either way with the bet sizing - small or huge. If the board was more draw-heavy, I might jam, hoping he thinks we're bluffing with a missed draw, and he hero calls with QX. Since the board is so dry, we're not going to have as many bluffs here, so I guess it would make more sense to bet smaller, so we can get called by 88-JJ.