1/3 NLHE 9 handed

V - Asian rock. Not a complete NIT but a winning tight aggressive rock. VPIP/PFR/3b of about 13/10/2. Sometimes limps pre with big MW drawing hands like QJs but almost always coming in for a 3-bet. His 4-betting range is super nutted. His 3-betting range is very tight but has some KJs or 99 depending on his position. He has a check/raising range and can bluff post-flop and can trap. One leak I've noticed this session is he c-bets waaaay too much OOP especially vs loose passives that are calling a lot. Another tell I've noticed of his is that he speaks when he's nutted, usually to the dealer. 550$ UTG.

H - Not sure how he sees me. I hate giving him action. Covers HJ.

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V opens 15 UTG, folds to H who goes 50 with K K, V calls HU.

Flop 100 (400 back) - Q 7 2

Check, H bets 35, V calls

Turn 170 (365 back) - 2

Check, H bets 125, V thinks for awhile and calls

River 420 (340 back) - 4

V checks, Hero?

Ed Miller says you usually hear about a monster by the turn.

Of course he could be slow playing QQ or 77 given board is dry, but I'm betting say 125, hoping to get crying call from AQ or KQ and folding to a raise.

V "...has a check/raising range and can bluff post-flop and can trap..." Normally, I'd think we can check behind one street for pot control on these WA/WB situations with an overpair, and therefore check behind here if we're worried about V c/shipping river.

It's really hard for him to have anything that beats you though, right? OTOH, the QQ/77s know it's very hard for you to catch up with whatever you have, you seem happy to drive the betting, so why not let you?

V's already put ~40% of their stack in. If we're not comfortable calling a shove, check behind. If we are, bet something V might want to call with their likely Qx holding. I'm guessing though that V does have a boat, ripped it in over us, and we're wondering if we could have gotten away more cheaply instead of going for thin value on the river.

3B bigger pre. Make it $60.

Think I'd bet 1/2 pot on flop.

I like the turn bet size as a portion of the pot, but it creates an awkward SPR going to the river.

Not sure what we do on the river. V could be sandbagging with QQ or 77, but could also just have QX or some stubborn PP like 88-JJ.

Hard to give him JJ+ when he just flat calls our 3B from OOP pre, and we'd think he'd raise 77 at some point. So I think we can bet here. I'm just not sure about the size.

Not sure what our bluffs would be, other than AK.

If we think he could get sticky post flop with 88-TT and all his QX, then I think we should bet around $175. If we think he's not getting here with worse than AQ, I think we should jam. If he's frequently trapping with 77, and not calling with AQ, just check back.

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Why? Wouldnt we want to check back more if more of his range is sets/boats?

Result:

Since I can't size to an amount preflop to comfortably stack off postflop, I migh 3bet even smaller preflop so we don't lose worse hands.

I'd strongly consider checking back the flop. Anyone described as remotely rockish is a little unlikely to have just Qx. And he's not paying off multiple streets with JJ- (which we don't want making hero folds on the flop). Plus he can tarp. If betting, I might even bet smaller.

Again, unless our rockish read is a little off, I'm just not convinced he has too many worse hands calling a decent sized bet on the turn after also calling the flop.

Weird spot on river. Mostly for me it comes down to whether he can even have Qx and pay off with it for a fourth straight street as well. Maybe I'm just having difficulty seeing things thru non-super nitty image eyes, but almost looks like tarping AA who is fine letting KK own / control damage against QQ / let AK barrel.

GcluessrockimagenoobG

bet $150 or so on the river.

Perfect bet sizings by you preflop, on the flop, and Turn. You’ve done everything perfectly to set yourself up for a clean shove on the River. Very well played by you.

…..wait. You CHECKED the River? With two Kings? On a Q7224r board? With a pot-sized bet behind?!?!?!?

Omg this is lolbad. If he has exactly pocket 7s you just have to pay him the money but my God, if you’re not value-shoving Kings on THIS runout, what hands are you EVER shoving for value on the River with? Just the nuts? Anything else is a check behind???

Omg I’m sorry, but this is one of the most *clearly* misplayed hands I’ve seen on here in a very long time.

Sorry if my earlier post wasn't clear. My advice for the river comes down to our hand reading. The options are check-back, bet small, or bet big.

Check back if we think he's slow-playing sets on the flop. Bet small if we think he's gotten sticky with 88-TT and every combo of QX (QJ, QT, Q9, etc). Bet big/jam if we think he's not getting to the river with worse than AQ (or maybe KQ), but that scenario excludes the likelihood that he slow-played a set.

Some hand-reading, as I'd do it, to lead to a river decision...

1) He opened 5x UTG, flat called hero's 3B, and then flat-called hero's roughly 1/3 pot c-bet on the flop.

Deduction - he has very few sets, and almost no 2P here.

Rocks don't open Q7, Q2 or 72 UTG. His worse QX holding is probably QJs, when he calls your 3B. He could have AQ or KQ.

QQ would likely 4B pre when OOP, at least some of the time. 77 and 22 are going to fold to the 3B pre, at least some of the time, especially if V is a rock and / or capable of understanding you're not deep enough for him to profitably set-mine by flat calling.

If he did have a set, he can comfortably check the flop, because it's as disconnected as it gets, but the lower his set, the more likely he'd be to donk-bet and / or check-raise when you bet small. So 22 really wants to donk or check raise a lot, 77 wants to donk or x/r slightly less, and QQ can go either way, but will often wait until the turn.

Based on your description, I think QQ is really the only set squarely in his range on the flop, and that assumes he's just flatting pre with QQ when OOP. Occasionally, maybe he has 77. He'll rarely have 22.

2) He tank-calls your large-ish turn bet on the rainbow-completing 2, setting up an awkward SPR for the river.

Deduction - there's only one combo of 22 available now, so it's even less likely he has that. He can opt to flat call again with QQ, since it's top boat, but 77 is going to want to spring the trap here, a lot, rather than risk you making a bigger boat or shutting down on the river.

QQ should raise here, too, at least some of the time, for the same reason, though obviously QQ needs less protection than 77. Even if QQ and 77 aren't worried about you making a bigger boat or shutting down, by this point, he's got to be thinking about how he's going to get stacks in.

There's about 80% pot left behind. What's he do on the river? Donk-jam 80% pot? Check and hope you'll bet so he can call a jam or check-raise AI? We have to think that QQ and 77 are going to raise turn at least some of the time, to get stacks in now, or make it easier to get them in on the river.

What other hands would tank-call?

AQ, KQ, and QJ might, but would probably just insta-call, and not tank, unless he's thinking about raising, but why would he, on this board, where there are no draws? Rocks don't raise TP in spots like this, they just check-call. His hand doesn't need much if any protection. He's either way ahead or way behind when we go bet-bet-bet here.

Maybe also 88-JJ. He could be going back through the memory banks, replaying the pre-flop action and flop action, trying to put you on a range, ruling out 22, wondering if you have 77, if you have any bluffs when you take this sizing, etc. 88-JJ need to think about calling, raising, or folding on this board.

3) He checks again on a river brick.

Deduction - at this point, I'm severely discounting QQ, 77, 22, 72 (seriously?), Q7, and Q2. I'm mostly putting him on QX or 88-JJ that got sticky.

I could go either way with the bet sizing - small or huge. If the board was more draw-heavy, I might jam, hoping he thinks we're bluffing with a missed draw, and he hero calls with QX. Since the board is so dry, we're not going to have as many bluffs here, so I guess it would make more sense to bet smaller, so we can get called by 88-JJ.

Good advice

dont understand. go all in

The way I look at it, the SPR is 4 going to the flop and if I flop an overpair I'd feel ok getting all the money in.
Two pot sizes bets would have done the job, but through smaller chunks you set up the same result. Agree with others, this is your chance to "cooler" the nut peddler.

I have a completely different understanding on what a rock is if he shows up with naked Qx / underpair for multiple barrels.

Ggarbagein,garbageout,imoG

Agreed. It's the turn call that seems odd for a rock, unless he thinks hero is bluffy / spewy and V thinks he's bluff catching.

AQ down to QJ, I could see, if he has no reads at all, but QJ would be the worst QX I'd expect him to have given the pre-flop action. The rest of his range would seem more likely to be stubborn 88-JJ or slow-played sets.

My take on the hand assumes he's not calling pre with speculative hands, and that (based on OP's other threads) hero's table image is too LAG-ish for V to release a hand he'd otherwise fold against a TAG.

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To clarify for those asking about his image ... when I say rock I mean rock. I'm actually surprised to see 99 in his UTG opening range. There's a few factors at play here I think:

1. He's at a table of loose passives, besides me he knows no one is going to 3-bet him.

2. He's seen me bluff AK on this type of board. He's seen me x/r light and try to rep hands.

3. We had a hand awhile back where I was IP with KK as well and 3-bet him pre and the flop came QQX and he stacked me with AQ. The runout was also dry like this Q-Q-7-4-2 or something. I was remembering that hand while playing this one (because of the similarity in the board actually) and thought "he has QQ all day here".

4. I would not have put 99 in his range pre from UTG. Kind of ties into point 1. His range to my mind (by the river) was almost all [QQ, AQo/s, KQs and maybe JJ-TT]. He absolutely would 4-bet me pre with AA and KK. Not sure what he does with QQ pre. His opens are so narrow usually that, while he's not a nit (from CO or BTN he opens 89s, 44, A5s), he is a very tight player and he loves to x/raise and rep a big hand when the board favours him.

how about a smaller turn sizing, 1/3rd or 1/2 pot.

i think youre dramatically over adjusting. the board is q72 2r 4o and you have 3/4 of a psb left. you literally only lose to sets

even vs your made up range of (QQ,AQo, KQss+, JJ (full weight but ignored TT) you have 87% otr.

rly think you'd be better off entirely ignoring adjusting / player descriptions