Overpair: Possible to not go broke here? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Overpair: Possible to not go broke here?

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03-13-2017 , 10:01 AM

AA Suited

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,243

1/2 NL, 10player

sb (Hero = A

): $175
utg: $200
mp: $200
co: $300

Preflop:
utg/mp/co limps, hero raises to $13, bb folds, utg folds, mp calls, co calls

MP is a middle aged white male, kinda tight.
co is a middle aged Asian, limps a lot.

flop ($43): 5

Hero bets $35, mp calls, co calls

Turn ($146): 2

Hero?

What hands I put them on:
- Top pair
- draw (straight or flush or both)

Unlikely someone has JQ (2 pair) or set of 5's.
they probably(?) would have raised on this wet board.

How's my thought process?
What would you do on the Turn?

Last edited by AA Suited; 03-13-2017 at 10:07 AM.

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03-13-2017 , 10:17 AM

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

I think you can probably go a little bigger pre and on the flop since you are OOP but now that we've reached the turn I'm just going to pile it in. We can't make a turn bet that doesn't commit us to shoving river so there's no reason to give them a cheaper price on the many draws they could have (K10, 109, diamonds). Yes, you will often fold out one pair hands you have crushed but I'd rather do that then bet $75 and be left with $60 behind going to the river.

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03-13-2017 , 10:17 AM

MIB211

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 3,010

I would go $15-20 pre over 3 limpers. You say CO has been limping a lot, has that been limp/call or limp/fold? If he's limp/calling a lot, I definitely size up pre.

Heading to flop, I'm just committed here, SPR or less than 4:1. Flop sizing is good, now shove turn. Get called by Qx, diamonds, T9, KT and probably some other strange stuff.

Not sure why you say it's unlikely someone has QJ or 55 though. with stack sizes calling your flop bet with QJ is fine. However, there are only 9 combos of QJ, while there are 30 combos of AQ/KQ/QT which all make sense plus all the draw combos.

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03-13-2017 , 10:28 AM

BAHighRoller

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 97

Yeah with 3 limpers pre based on our local 1/2 games here I am going up to $20. Still probably get a caller but maybe not 2. I don't mind your flop sizing based on what you did. While I kind of agree I would most times raise that board even with a set or top 2 based on texture at 1/2 you see people do a lot of things you would not. On the turn you are pot committed. I think you have less than a pot size bet left. There are enough draws and top pair hands that called that flop I am just shoving. Like previous poster said, no bet you make here does not have you pot committed.

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03-13-2017 , 11:23 AM

sai1b0ats

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 2,463

shove turn, bummer that 52o got there.

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03-13-2017 , 10:33 PM

BackDoorFlush

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171

Shove turn.

Sorry that he had J2o.

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03-14-2017 , 10:29 AM

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

Grunch:

<PSB left. Just rip it in. Getting called by worse still quite a bit.

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03-14-2017 , 10:32 AM

Redskins 47

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,103

Wager the rest of your playing discs on the turn. Sucks that he had Q5 but sometimes you just gotta lose that money.

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03-14-2017 , 12:32 PM

AA Suited

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,243

Quote:

Originally Posted by sai1b0ats

shove turn, bummer that 52o got there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BackDoorFlush

Shove turn.

Sorry that he had J2o.

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Originally Posted by Redskins 47

Wager the rest of your playing discs on the turn. Sucks that he had Q5 but sometimes you just gotta lose that money.

MP had 55 for set of 5's.
he insta called my all-in w/o asking how much.
co showed JQo for top 2 pair and reluctantly folded.

WTF?!
so was my read on the flop that WRONG?!
or did these 2 guys play they hands in a non-standard way, especially JQ?

and more importantly, any reasonable chance of avoiding going broke?

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03-14-2017 , 01:02 PM

#10

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

Going broke every time. Nice hand.

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03-14-2017 , 01:13 PM

#11

1.618

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 406

Quote:

Originally Posted by AA Suited

Your read is fine. Think about the hand if run 100 times over, not this one in isolation where V shows with bottom set. Lots of time they both have a bunch of weak pairs and draws. Your stack is way to short to ever consider getting out of this one. Shove turn 100% of time.

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