This spot confused me, so curious on thoughts:

V1 - (button) mid 20s Asian. Say down about an hour ago and has not played a hand. Folded every blind and button. I'm getting the pro waiting to cooler someone vibe from him. 485

V2 - (CO) mid 20 black guy. Stations and chases a lot. I've value bet him a couple times pretty light and he paid off each time. Buying in with 20s. 400

Hero (HJ) - MAWG, obvious tourist. Probably perceived as TAGish, with weak tight tendencies. Not playing back a lot against pressure. Covers.

2 limps to hero in CO, who raises to 23 with KKsd

CO flats, button flats, blinds and limpers fold.

Flop - 10h, 4s, 8h

Hero leads for 50. CO flats, Button raises to 120. Hero flats (wasn't sure what to do here), CO flats.

Turn - 2d

Hero checks, CO checks, button thinks for a bit and shoves. Hero?

On the flop when you call flat his $120 you obviously made the decision to play for stacks which is a wrong decision by the way. You should have expected another big bet on the turn. At this moment no matter what you do you are still in "wrong" If you fold now after investing 30% of stack (folding after commitment) or if you continue all the way. Either play has -EV for you no mater you slice it.

Oh, by the way: Where is the flushy board?
Flop - 10, 4, 8
Turn - 2

Your reads are good but we need some more info/corrections. Is this 1/2 or 1/3? How is the hero in the CO flatting himself? Do you mean you were the HJ?

In this spot I'm never ever worried about V2. His range is a fair amount of TP hands that he can't fold, a ton of straight/flush draws, and very very rarely a slow played set on a super wet board.

I can think of two lines that I like:

1) just fold and don't pay off the nit who likely has two pair or a set. If he raised us with a draw to exploit his nit equity, good for him, but we have never seen him do this before so no reason to assume so now.

2) we assume that he can raise his draws on occasion. This is not a bad assumption because he's 20's and Asian. We can also assume, since he's in his 20s and playing really tight, that he's not very sophisticated.

In this case I like a minraise/fold. We would never do this against a good player, but against this guy the result will often be:

A) he has a set/2pr and shoves because it looks like we have an overpair and aren't folding. Stacking overpairs is how he makes his money, and he just calls with made hands that beat us on this board almost never.

B) he has a flush or straight draw and snap or shrug


calls because we gave him the correct odds. He almost never reraises us when he only has 30% and it looks like we aren't folding.

C) he has exactly JQ or J9, shoves, and we make an incorrect fold.

This may sound suspiciously like raising for information, and in part it is. But we also get value from draws and lose less money against a set than we would be check/calling a street. Really it's a blocker/value bet, and we naturally get information from him by putting pressure on him.

As played, check/evaluate turn bet sizing. If he takes a free card he was most likely on a draw. If he bets big I'm folding, but wishing I just folded the flop.

I was in the HJ. Error in original.

Wet board? Drawy board?