Live $2/5. Villian (UTG+2): $1700. Hero (HJ) covers.

$10 Mississippi Straddle is on. Both blinds fold to V who opens to $40. Hero 3bet to $160 with QhQd at HJ. All folded back to V who flatted. Pot $337.

Flop 7s 7c 5d rainbow. V check, Hero bet $160. V called. Pot $657.

Turn Jh. Board: 7s 7c 5d Jh. V check. Hero check behind. Pot is still $657

River 8h. Board: 7s 7c 5d Jh 8c. V check. Hero bet $400. Pot is now $1057. V check jammed for around $1380 total. ???

V is a young and loose aggressive player. Have seen him make some big moves before. When he flat my 3bet pf oop this deep, I put him on some kind of medium size pairs like 8s-Js, or some large broadways. Figured he would very likely 4bet me with Aces, Kings or even AK instead of trying to trap oop. Not sure if I was value betting too thin on the river.

In general fold. Might have to just click call here. This is underbluffed and hero has 1p hands here a lot. Depends a lot on what I’ve seen from his moves.

Bet smaller on flop. Bet fold river.

Not really see what youre value betting into ott? You trying to get value from exactly 99/TT? Or a floated Jx? I wouldnt hate a turn bet, but i really dont care for the river bet unless youve been making a lot of big bets (in which case, easy call)

You only need to be good like 25% of the time but im not sure you are. I would fold but i dont think this is a major error to call or fold, id expect players with his profile to have air like 15-25% here. It smells like 88.

PRE - looks good. I'm generally ruling out AA/KK/AK when he flats.

FLOP - not sure why we're betting 1/2 pot. Either go smaller than 1/3 to keep his range wide, or go bigger than 2/3 for max value & protection.

TURN - assuming V is calling the 1/2 pot flop bet wider than he should be, I guess we should bet to deny equity from AK/KQ type hands, or get value from 88-TT. Gonna suck if V has JJ, 55, or 7x.

RIVER - feels like we're running out of value. Not sure we can get called by 99 or TT, or worse. If V checks here, I'd check back, to avoid exactly this type of situation, where we get check-raised, and we're unlikely to have better than an over-pair.

I'd think his boats would just bet out, not go for a check-raise, after we check back turn. I'd think he'd fold T9 on the flop.

In theory, his check-raise bluffs should have some showdown value, in case you check back. But he wouldn't seem to have any natural bluffs that would raise pre, call a 3B, and flat-call a 1/2 pot flop bet. I'd think Jx and 8x would just bluff-catch.

The only bluffs I can find are A5 and 65 combos that thought our flop c-bet sizing smelled fishy, and was hoping to spike an ace or go runner-runner to make a straight.

You bet almost 2/3 pot on the river. You could have 88 when you check back turn, but you probably wouldn't 3B 88 pre over a +2 open. Maybe you check back turn with JJ for deception, to induce him to lead out on the river. But JJ isn't necessarily a 3B pre over a +2 raise when you're this deep.

I think this is a close spot against a young aggro V, as V could 4B you or flat call your 3B with A5s and 65s. You shouldn't have a lot of 7x or 88 in your 3B'ing range. Your range looks a lot like QQ+, and this is a run-out that's going to hit his range more.

I think you mis-played the hand by betting too big on flop, checking back turn, and betting too thin for value on the river. But when you check back turn, I think V is going to bet his boats for value. This check-raise line smells like a hand that wanted to just get to showdown, but is now hoping you'll fold.

So...call.

Great analysis. Flop size def can be bigger as you've mentioned. My reasoning behind the check on the turn is because JJ is firmly in his range. Being this deep and in position on a relatively dry board, I want to pot control to see how he reacts on the river. When he checked the third time on the river, I decided to bet because this is how I will play with my own bluffs, if I was 3betting pre with AK, AQ, suited aces etc. So in my mind I was balancing my range as well as trying to extract value from some Jacks that float the flop, or non believing 99 10 10 etc.

Definitely very surprised when he checked jam the river after 3 checks oop. I did tank for a very very long time before I flicked in the call as I believe he would be more inclined to bet out a strong hand on the river given my passive check on the turn. Your read is spot on, as I was very surprised to see him turning over KdJd.

I did talk to him at the end to try to understand why he didn't just call instead of ripping it in at the end. His logic was very close to what you've said, as he believed he has enough showdown value if the actions get checked through at the end. When faced with my river bet, he deduced that his Jack was probably no good, so he was trying to rep Jacks full with him blocking one Jack and was trying to bluff me off my overpairs. A very cool play from his end, and to be honest I didn't have a particular good read, and I wasn't able to put him on a hand that I could beat. I was just calling because I was getting decent odds and he was a very aggro kid whom I assume would be capable of making plays like this.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

I do think he's out of line turning KJ into a bluff when you check back turn. You could play 99 or TT this way, or 88. His hand has too much showdown value to turn into a bluff, IMO.

Turning A5 into a bluff makes more sense, as it blocks AA and AJ. Turning 65 into a bluff makes some sense, as it makes it less likely you'd have 76.

All of it would make more sense if you bet turn. Once you check back turn, his river check-raises just seem less credible for value.