Quote:
Originally Posted by luz4ggro
So the people saying it Is a bad bluff, you are calling down a loose player with any PP when there Is flush, one card straight, A overcard (unless you have top set) and board full of low cards that could easily make me 2 pair?
And people say that poker Is dead
the thing is if he just calls with AA and JJ-KK with a spade (blocking flushes) which i think is pretty reasonable, your bluff is losing. he doesn't have to call 100% of his hands on the river for your bluff to not make money. you have a problem because i think you have a hugely losing bluff on non spade / non 4 so youre just putting in money poorly ott. you might think youre a loose player i can easily have a 4 but you're not really looking at the math of your range well. on the flop you have 2p+ maybe 5% of the time. turn is hard for me to quantify in GTOw because your betting too much (otf) but if youre stabbing your entire range otf you probably have a hand better than AA like at best 10% of the time. you being looser and having a few more 4x hands isn't going to compensate for way more air in your range either. this isn't enough of the time for you to just pot and jam river and think lol he is a fish if he pays this off. you're going to end up way way way over bluffing from a mathematical standpoint. on the river you're giving him 2:1 so you want to have around 1/3 of your range be bluffs, but youre probably ending up with like idk 75+% air if you dont watch your turn frequency and always follow through otr. if you think he pure folds pairs worse than AA regardless of suits, then sure, but here you get a very good river for what you're trying to do and we still dont know if he is actually going to overfold.
my guess would be average person at 2/5s pre and flop c/c range are too tight to make this a good play and youre significantly over estimating the amount of the time you have AA beaten in your range frequency wise and also over estimating how often they're going to fold overpairs (particularly ott) because "LOL i am loose and he's capped". fwiw ott i think he folds an overpair 0% of the time after c/cing the flop because he will think his hand looks like Ace high or whatever even though i think they over fold those otf. yes he will have some, but i dont think he has enough for you to be able to pot the turn profitably, particularly with 0 equity and slightly reverse blockers
you can quantify the ev of your bluff if you make some assumptions without just hand waving things away and saying lol poker is dead if people think my bluff is bad. especially if you think villain is good, that doesn't just mean you should expect him to fold 100% of his range on boards where he is weak, that isn't what good poker looks like and most people that get described as good tags are aware of that. i reasonable peoples bluff catching heuristics to look like: call the river with overpairs with a spade when the flush comes in, and call without a spade when it bricks. you apparently expect him to never call the river except with AA, never play any kind fd in this way, and fold something like 90% of his range. idk if thats a good assumption vs someone described as a good reg.
Last edited by submersible; 01-08-2024 at 04:50 AM.