Hero ( 1600): Hyper aggressive image
Villain (980): Good TAG player. Have played twice with him on casino. Classic mid 30s reg with airpods not talking that much.

OTH
Blinds 2-5

Hero is on MP and raises to 20 with Td8d, villain 3bets to 60 on SB, Hero calls.

Flop (130): 6s5s3d
Villain checks, hero bets 40. Villain calls

Turn (210): 2c
Villain checks, hero goes for 200, Villain tanks for 1 minute and calls

River (610): As
Villain checks, hero goes all in for 720

I think is the best possible runout for me to bluff against his 3betting range. It would be extremely hard to call with me with ex overpair (KK, QQ, JJ, etc...) and I dont think he called me with Ax 2 streets. I dont think he has that many flushes
on his range... and he definitely doesnt have a 4. But I have a very aggro image and this can be the perfect board for me to bluff so he can level himself into calling me. Thoughts? Ill post results later

How tight is his 3! range? If he usually has like JJ+/AK, I wouldn't try to bluff him at all with no pair and no draw.

Not sure what story you're telling? AA I guess but the flat pre may rule that out. And then are you really going to over bet river when flush comes in? Then is no nut flush to rep. Against a decent V I don’t like it. Seems poorly planned and unnecessary.

well, its a good runout for you, and I agree, there should be a lot of hands in his range that get to the river and now have a very hard time calling your shove, so river might be +ev.

But you shouldnt get in this spot imo, you cant just blast off every time you get a somewhat favourable board.
It´s both theoretically very bad to overbluff severely, and also, as I hear all the time, not the way to make money in live poker to overbluff like crazy...

I also dont think you got the range advantage on this flop as well.

So, imo its nice that you have bluffs in your range, and that you are willing to bluff off your stack. Its a trait that many live regs are lacking, and it makes them that much easier to play against. You obv dont have that problem. You also think about board and how ranges interact, and that also gives you a much higher ceiling than stupid valuebetting 0 bluffs players.
You just have to be careful not do overdue it, as in this case. Its one of the best runouts for you, you wont get so lucky with scare cards consistently, and still, you had probably close to 0% equity all the way in this hand.

It isn't a bad bluff. Probably not many FD in his range as a TAG (if he is one). Looks like on the face of it he had an overpair and was letting you hang yourself. The question is is how often he'd call you down with now second pair. That's a table read and unanswerable in the forum.

Tight 3bet range, leaning mostly for overpairs and rarely big broadways, Ax. From the way it was played it is very clear that he has an overpair. Are you calling me down with an A on the board, 1 card to a straight and a possible flush? I would even value bet 2 pair with that line since im confident the only beating them is AA, and with an A on the board is unlikely (but possible).

Mostly standard, wp

Contrary to description villain probably isnt good tho if he just 3x oop pre, fwiw

if he folds any A you are printing. prob JJ+ he should call. you are repping pretty thin for call a 3bet range pre

I mean, if we’re ever going to do it, now is the time. This is the worst runout ever for a lot of the hands Villain called with on flop and turn. He can’t be happy calling and may only call with AA.

For those who are saying we rep thin, both 4x and front-door spades got there. We can have 44 or we can have suited connectors in spades for possible value. If Villain won’t be concerned about this then we should never be taking this line as a bluff—but then we’re just never bluffing ever. Which is possible, I guess.

There's a difference between hyper aggressive and blasting off 200bb with any2 when checked to.

When you blast turn for pot when 4x makes the nuts, and then he tank calls ... how often do you think he's folding on any river?
Much prefer blasting again if river is like Ts because it's much more reasonable for you to have NFD. But maybe it's a bit better if you can have Ac7c and shove river for value?


Pre is loose, flop is okay (assuming we only continue on good turn cards if called), turn seems any2 spew ... why not go for broke on the river, how bad can it be.

Villain was the 3bettor preflop; how much 4x can he have? You think he ever 3bets 44 from the SB? (I might occasionally, but rarely if ever.) I suppose A4s is possible (but unclear if it’s in his range at all) although the river blocks one of these combos. We are much more likely up against a big pair that hates this runout.

Also, I am figuring that the point of this hand is that we are picking a rare spot to do this where we are so confident we have enough FE that our hand doesn’t matter, AND more importantly that we aren’t always doing this. If we’re always doing this, or even often doing this, it’s spew.

I don't see the point in 1/3 pot on the flop. When he 3-bets and checks, he is never folding the flop. You could still bluff or go for value on the turn in position if you check back.

Seems like just bet if checked to regardless. Solver would tell you to give up when you have absolutely nothing. Maybe better spots than trying to get people to fold pairs of face cards.

River seems OK with that card as played. I would leave about 200 behind. Saves money if he calls, it is obviously an easy fold if he shoves, and you represent a wider range with a smaller sizing. He doesn't have an ace, but it doesn't appear you have an ace. Maybe you could have aces up starting with Axs. You are representing a flush or straight.

I hate everything up to the river jam which I think is forced given the line. Open is the only meeehhabye part I'd take.

I think you're waaaay overestimating your nut advantage as a 3B caller on a 653ssd board. You are just not showing up here with 44 or 56s often enough. Turn is a 2c...ok..sooo your A4s got there? and then oop. an A for card removal rivers. You have so much air/marginal here.

^This.

But Vernon, I would ask for your (and everyone else's too, including Luz') thoughts on the following: we have compressed V's range incredibly by the river. So I think it's less about what we rep than it is about the V's "mininum defense" range and pot odds on the river.

We offer roughly 2-1 on the river call and I think we folded at least the lower half of his range on the flop and turn. I also think his turn tank/call suggests V may have turned more equity and can have some flush-blocking combos like AxKs, AxQs in addition to overpairs.

What does V get here with that folds the river at this price? TAG V can certainly "do the math" on the turn after his tank call about the likely river scenario/odds of facing a river jam.

My range is not thin at all. Im calling a 3bet in position deep stack. I can be calling with an extremely wide range of hands. I may even have 54s here. And I will go for value exactly the same way all the way.

To people asking why my 1/3 c bet. That flop is terrible for the 3bettor. In that board that favors me instead of him I like to bet 1/3 to fold out all his Ax, Kx, Qx hands. I would even bet there with 7x, 6x, 5x, 4x and be extremely comfortable he is not raising me back, since it will be a suicide to play a big pot OOP against a loose player with an overpair there.

If villain calls me that 1/3 pot bet and another dangerous card come (almost all non broadway) I am blasting off the turn.

Im not 100% blasting river, but that ace is so beautiful that I couldn't miss the opportunity

But how do we decide if we are doing it too much? Sure, maybe a robot can do this randomly with any2 13.37% of the time or whatever ... but I think it's way more likely luz is doing this with any2 95% of the time.


One easy way to not go insane is to look at combos. ... We can bluff more on earlier streets, so flop bet with backdoor flush draws and backdoor straight draws is maybe okay. Continue blasting on T9874 or most diamonds, because we have (we assume) fold equity ... But then we hit a brick for our hand and just blast off with roughly 0% equity when called. Yeh, okay, so turn is "bad" for villain and people should fold a lot vs. sane people ... but, again, we're here blasting with 0% equity and villain tank calls the bad turn.
So another kind of bad card hits the river and the question is do we blast off 100% of range again because it looks like a bad card for V. And the title is "overbet bluff" but it's closer to 100% pot than 150% pot.


Feel like if V posted this hand we'd have pretty much everyone replying "gg, lol, check call for value vs. this whale"

So you have a wide range pre., are range betting all "bad" flop boards for V when he checks and blasting turn ~66% of the time. Cool river range.

Yes, with that river card Im blasting 90% of my range (value and bluff), unless I know im against a hero caller or a whale calling station. I would do it against almost any reg. That board is way too good for my range and bad for his that it will be a cardinal sin in my opinion not to fire this river.

That 3! sizing at those stack depths does not lead me to believe he's good. If he's paying attention to your style and image at all, $60 is small. Perhaps a subtle 2 or 3 bb difference, but I think it's important. That sizing may be unbalanced as well, indicating a decent hand (but not AA/KK), which he isn't confident / competent enough to navigate post.

Did you consider 4-bet-folding? If you're trying to play an agro, high vpip style, that may have been a line to take. Again, it sounds good bc if this guy is an airpods TAG, he's open to folding his KQs after you make it $160.

PRE - Opening T8s from MP feels a little on the cusp, but is probably fine. I could go either way between calling or folding to the 3B from SB. In position, calling is probably fine.

FLOP - I mean...you've got 2 overs, a BDFD and BDSD. Just because he checks doesn't mean he doesn't have a pair and just whiffed. This flop wouldn't seem to smash his 3B'ing range, so I'd expect him to check a lot with all his PP's.

I might just check back, hoping to pick up some equity on the turn, so we can call a delayed c-bet, or planning to start a bluff if he checks again.

Your less than 1/3 pot bet wouldn't seem likely to accomplish much. He's probably not folding any pair. He might decide you're full of $hlt, put in a check-raise, and force us to fold away our equity.

It's unlikely you opened pre with 74 or 42, or that you'd be taking this sizing with a really good combo-draw, a set, or 2P. With the stack-depth, I would think your thick value would want to start building a pot, and would bet more when heads-up. So I'm not sure what story you're telling on the flop, other than maybe you have an OESD with A4, 54, 44, or 87s, or a flush draw.

TURN - The 2c wouldn't seem to change much, unless you or your opponent has A4, 54, or 44, specifically. If you bet bigger on the flop, your pot sized bet would look more like a flopped set or 2P betting for value and protection. Here, with so few turned straights in your range, you're not repping much for value, so it looks like a flush draw setting up for a river jam.

RIVER - I actually kind of hate the As here. We can't rep the nut flush draw. What Ax hands do we have that play this way? Would we play any Ax this way, when there's already four to a straight on board and the flush comes in? If we got here with A5, A4, 54, 44, or 87ss, are we going to over-bet jam when V checked to us on every street?

What are we supposedly targeting for value when we jam?

I understand and agree that it's hard for V to call a river jam with just a PP, but if we have a hyper-aggro image, a lot of V's might look us up here. It wouldn't shock me if he check-called the whole way with a big PP, and flicks in the call.

I might just give up on the river, and save my chips for a future campaign.

I like that response a lot and you are touching very important points. My range doesnt include low cards that much if im opening from MP and with the big bet on the turn there are even less 4s Im capping my range to straight or flush draw, the flush that hits on the river does help me in case Im not crazy bluffing with complete air (which I was this time ). It does look like im using brute aggression to push him off a difficult board for him. But putting opponents in those decisions give you a good image and people call me down with dumb things a lot of times because they think I make this kinds of play all the time


Ok, here how the hand ended:

Villain tanks for 5 minutes until one player at the table asks for clock....

Seriously??? He tanked for 5 minutes with top set???

When you say, "my range doesn't include low cards that much if im opening from MP" - is that objectively true, or is that what you think V thinks about your range here? If you have an aggro image, I'd probably think you're going to be opening MP with a wide range, that could include some small pairs and lower suited connectors that could connect here.

The benefit of having an aggro image is that we get paid off a lot when we have value. The downside is we need to be really selective with our bluffs. Going bet-bet-bet when the nuts change on every street is going to get us looked up a lot.

Your hands that bet small on flop and pot on turn don't jam river, unless you're jamming turned straights when the flush comes in. Your hands that jam river don't bet small on flop and pot on turn, unless you're betting small and potting the turn with your flush draws.

He probably needed 5 minutes to figure that out. Most players realize in 10 seconds they're never folding top set, and just stick it in.

I hate the flop bet so much. You are going to bet your good hands less than 1/3 pot on this texture?

You have a nut advantage on the low board, but the low board is good for a large part of his range TT+, even AK/AQ as compared to OP's range, which included suited connectors, suited broadway, KQo/KJo, aces, which doesn't connect with this flop.

When he 3-bets and checks the low board, it looks like he didn't hit it but is usually ahead with TT+/AQ+. I don't think it is a situation where you should bet when checked to. I know solvers often recommend small cbets, but I don't see what a small bet could do for anything you could have for value of bluff here.

I guess you figure that since he tank called AA for top set, he might have folded JJ-KK. The other thing is he might use the small 3! and passive line more with AA than say JJ.