Quote:
Originally Posted by docvail
PRE - you know you're out of line raising the old folks with 97s, but if you can dial it back post flop when you need to, I guess you can't get into too much trouble.
FLOP - I like the raise over the donk lead. I'd like it even better if we were deeper stacked. If you're the aggro punk among geriatrics, I'd expect them to spaz raise with 2P+, so this is a good way to keep control of the pot size and define their ranges a bit.
TURN - interesting spot when you make 2P but it brings in the BDFD. I'd think we'd want to bet bigger to get value from their likely Ax holdings, preferring to get stacks in now or set up a trivial size river jam. At deeper stack depths or against more tricky opponents, I might be worried about someone check-jamming a better 2P, but I'd somewhat expect a scared 2P to donk lead big here.
Given the stack sizes, I think I'd prefer to just over-bet jam turn.
RIVER - yuck. We can't fold now, getting over 3.4:1 on a call. If he made a flush or a better 2P, we just have to pay him off.
I think he has every Ax here, including all the AXo with the Ah, and all the AK. I'd think he'd fast play Ax with the NFD on earlier streets, unless it was AhJh specifically, so I'd be more worried about him having a better 2P, very likely A5, since we probably would have heard from other 2P sooner.
But with the BDFD coming in, I'd think he'd only be doing this with Ah5x, which is just 3 combos, compared to all the other random Ax he has that he'd rather turn into a bluff by jamming than play as a bluff catcher when you jam. If he was slow playing some other 2P, there just aren't that many combos with the Ah in them.
Meanwhile, he's unlikely to put you on 97 here, unless he's seen you show down those sorts of hands already, which seems unlikely if the game is only on its fourth orbit. Our hand has been reduced to a bluff catcher now, but I think it's a good one, when we unblock a ton of worse value and all his bluffs.
I still expect to lose a lot when V takes this line, but we're going to win more when our hand is stronger than our opponents are likely to think.
Thanks for the post Doc. This makes sense to me. RE: flop - I agree that I would expect to re-raised here by AJ or A7 which is really helpful. The cold call was slightly concerning but in general I agree that their ranges are a lot more defined after my raise.
On turn, I do think I could probably go a bit bigger, especially because AXhh and JXhh are available. Even a hand like AT is a pair plus gutter which won't want to fold. That said, both Vs are so short that I don't think it's super necessary. As it stands, V1 (the deeper stack) ended up with less than half pot behind on the river. If I had raised flop bigger like Davo suggested, maybe I could just jam the turn which I think would be good.
The result of this hand was that after I calculated the pot I figured I could call. So I sigh called. V1 said "Good call, I just have a pair of sevens." Normally I would fastroll my hand here but I thought I misheard him because this was such an unbelievable result. Eventually I turned my hand over without seeing his and I won the pot.
I have no clue how this guy got to the river with just a 7. The only thing that makes even a little sense is 78s with a backdoor flush draw that called the flop and picked up a nasty looking gutshot on the turn. There is only one combo of that though! T7s also has a gutshot on the turn but yuck.
I made this thread because of the confusing result and because I actually did consider folding on the river. I think I would be more likely to fold here with AK or AQ too? Maybe that's a mistake and I should just call any made hand. I know I am leaking a lot of money calling rivers in underbluffed spots though.