Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
I’m curious what everyone thinks Villain’s turn betting range is?
V being described as an aggro reg, and on the BTN, playing 1/2, I'd think his pre-flop 3B'ing range could be pretty wide.
On flop - V could have a handful of flopped straights, some sets, some 2P, a bunch of over-pairs, TPTK, TPAK, some un-paired over-cards with some ISSD's or FDFD's (or both), and possible some suited connectors under the board, like 65hh / 65cc.
Turn - I'd think the Ah would slow V down a lot, with a lot of the range that got here. I'd think his turn betting range has to be Ax with a good kicker, at a minimum. I wouldn't expect a competent V to be betting half pot with KK/QQ/JJ, at least not without a heart.
I'd say his turn betting range is AX, over-pairs with a heart, top 2, sets, flopped straights, and turned flushes. Maybe he has a sliver of off-suit broadways with a heart and a straight draw, like QhJx.
You make a good point about the suits. Not sure if this is the point you were making, but on this turn card, V could have a lot of hands that were strong on the flop, but are now beat by our flushes, or he could have some flushes which weren't all that strong pre or on flop.
It sort of splits his range into very strong hands that will never fold, predominantly strong flushes, and some hands that were strong before the turn, but might possibly insta-fold now, which is basically everything else in his range. If we weight his range towards hands that aren't flushes, this is a good turn card to jam.
It's why I like a jam on turn. We can fold out some hands that were strong pre and on flop, but hate this turn card. Even if V calls with a better hand, we still have our straight and flush draws to bail us out, and we can make a set to beat his over-pairs. We're only in really bad shape against his turned flushes with over-cards to the board, which isn't that many hands.
As to your point about how we play the rest of our range - I don't think I'd be continuing without either having a nutted hand, or a hand that is fairly strong as-is, with a reasonably good chance to improve to a very strong hand.