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OP + STR8 draw in RR pot OP + STR8 draw in RR pot

04-05-2009 , 07:29 AM
Hi, he was 17/3/1,4 over 274 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($756.70)
CO ($588.65)
Button ($309)
SB ($725)
Hero (BB) ($609)
UTG ($668)
UTG+1 ($991.60)
MP1 ($855)
MP2 ($621)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
5 folds, CO bets $24, 2 folds, Hero raises to $72, CO calls $48

Flop: ($147) 9, 10, J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $516.65 (All-In), Hero?
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-05-2009 , 07:59 AM
What were you oing to do if he bet like 3/4 pot?
Personally, I would bet/ fold this flop for like $80 and not put in more money if called. I don't expect him to bluff us off better but checking gets messy.
As played, I probably fold.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-05-2009 , 05:16 PM
too much missing info,, as played, folds not a mistake.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-06-2009 , 06:53 AM
whats is his agression Frq?
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-06-2009 , 09:44 AM
so we got 10 outs right? do the math this is basic pokerstove i think, and my guess is it's a fold but prob not too -EV to call if he can have worse ever
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-06-2009 , 03:55 PM
Raise % very low, aggression very low.....He is playing this hand very strong so I would consider it an easy fold for the amount of the bet...he took away your odds to draw! And its very possible he has two of your outs! There are pretty much no hands you are ahead of right now that he is making this play with.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-06-2009 , 06:37 PM
you win a 3rd of the time if he only has 99+ and are flipping or winning otherwise
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-19-2009 , 06:04 PM
He is 17/3/1,4 ?
Then why reraise pf? probably just call pf and then play postflop against his range.
Another benefit is: pot is still small on flop and he probably would not shove flop.

The way it is played - fold. He's got JJ+ almost always i guess. Probably sometimes AK as bluff but not often. Probably depends on 3bet history / your image.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-19-2009 , 06:23 PM
As a 3% pfr, its possible that he's ahead pre-flop. However he is in the stealing position, does his range open up (steal % from CO?). If not then we can assume he is relatively strong, when villan flats can we assume that he does not have KK+? (Generally a 4-bet coming if they have it)

Therefore I think we can assume the range is JJ, AK, 1010, I think 99's might not be in his range (assuming CO steal % is close to pfr %) (not QQ because of virtually impossible hand combinations with us holding the other QQ). AQs maybe in the range as well, but depends on histroy/image and I think that AQs might be a bit light for this opponent.

Assuming JJ AK 1010, either we have 10 outs vs house re-draw or villan has 5 outs. In the first situation roughly 32.25% equity (poker stove), 82.14% equity in the second situation. Although I feel like a set or AK will play the same here I have no image or history with the villan. His AK line shoves your check assuming a set would lead the flop. His set line shoves to ruined pot odds.

Conclusion: Given low aggression frequency, no other history and missing roughly ~15% equity vs a set fold is the best option.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-20-2009 , 11:18 AM
I think a fold is in order given how you played it and villain tendencies. 99-JJ is clearly a large part of his range, and I wouldn't discount AA and KK either. Is a 17/3 really ever bluff-shoving in this spot? Every once in a long while he shows up with AQ or QQ, but I doubt it is ever nearly enough to make a call +EV.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-20-2009 , 12:00 PM
im going to go against the grain and say you could have the same hand. since i expect him to reraise KK AA pre and flat AK QQ JJ. I'd call. But I would have bet and not checked in the first place.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote
04-22-2009 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mench
im going to go against the grain and say you could have the same hand. since i expect him to reraise KK AA pre and flat AK QQ JJ. I'd call. But I would have bet and not checked in the first place.
Just gonna put this out there, but whenever I play poker I'm not really putting the villan on the same pocket pair as me, just because of the ridiculousness of the odds. With that in mind, I tried to consider it, but in this given situation how is there even close to sufficient range narrowing to say with any certainty that he has the same hand?

Sorry about getting off topic, villan is still incredibly tight with pfr% and likelihood of set is high. As well as KK (even though I think its incredibly bad not to 4-bet that, and I still think AA is 4-betting) being possible...juts fold.
OP + STR8 draw in RR pot Quote

      
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